Fantasy Predictions: Pitcher Trends

Posted on January 22, 2013 by Daniel Marino

Bailey

Here is a look at some pitchers and what their trends suggest for 2013.

-In his 11 year career, Aaron Harang had his two best ERA seasons the past two seasons. However, his walk totals were abnormally high last season, posting his worst BB/9 ratio since his rookie season. His SO/9 have been trending downward over the past six years. His SO/BB ratio was also his worst since his rookie season. However, his H/9 was the second best of his career. Put the good and bad together, and you get a .500 pitcher, which Harang was with the Dodgers. In 2011 with the Padres, he was 14-7. If you remove that season, over the past five seasons, Harang is 28-48. He’s a huge risk at this point in his career.

2013 Projection: 8-11 4.66 ERA

-Jake Westbrook posted his best ERA since 2004. He posted the best HR/9 of his career. His BB/9 was his best since 2006. His ERA was his lowest since 2004. The past two seasons, his numbers are trending upward slightly, so Westbrook could have another solid season if that trend continues.

2013 Projection: 13-9 3.90 ERA

-Ricky Romero was horrible in 2012 after three solid seasons to start his career. His BB/9 were way up and his SO/9 were significantly down. The numbers are so alarming, he could very well be hiding an injury. It would be sad to think we’ve already seen the best of Romero. If there is not an injury, he’ll win games with a potent Blue Jay lineup. Romero is someone to watch in Spring Training. (more…)

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Cleveland Indians are Looking Good for 2012

Posted on January 21, 2012 by Michael Schwartze

For the first half of the season last year, the Indians were looking pretty good. They were sitting at the top of the division and playing well. Things started to spiral down hill though in late May, in large part due to injuries. They acquired Ubaldo Jimenez in the middle of the season but he turned out to really disappoint and the second half of the season did not go well for him or the club. There were some positives to take out of the season though as Justin Masterson really emerged and the rest of the performed pretty well. Asdrubal Cabrera also really stepped up and was one of the top offensive shortstops in the league.

This offseason the Indians have made some nice moves to improve their team. They resigned Grady Sizemore for a relatively low risk, one year deal at $5MM and that could work out well, especially if Sizemore is healthy. They also acquired pitcher Derek Lowe from the Indians toward the end of October.

In December the club signed Felix Pie to a minor league deal with a spring training invite and he could be a useful piece. They just recently signed Ryan Spilborghs to a minor league contract with a spring training invite and he could be a nice outfielder off of the bench. Yesterday the Indians acquired Kevin Slowey from the Rockies who will provide some nice pitching depth. While those acquisitions are not huge, I think they bolster a team that has potential in 2012.

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Colorado Rockies 2012 Lineup

Posted on January 15, 2012 by Michael Schwartze

The Colorado Rockies went 73-89 in 2011 finishing fourth in the NL West. The season did not go so well and ace Ubaldo Jimenez was dealt in the middle of the season to the Indians for Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner, and Matt McBride. After him being dealt, the rotation really began to fall apart. In the second half, the young Ubaldo-less staff dealt with injuries and inconsistencies. The lineup, other than Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez, struggled throughout the season. All of these factors resulted in a disappointing season for the Rockies and had them forgetting the 2011 season and looking towards 2012. Well things are looking pretty good for the team in 2012, especially for their lineup.

This offseason, the Rockies have made some good acquisitions. The biggest name was Michael Cuddyer for 3 years, $31.5M. They also signed free agent catcher Ramon Hernandez after dealing Chris Iannetta to the Angels. They most recently signed third baseman Casey Blake to a 1 year, deal. The addition of these guys will help an already good looking lineup for 2012.
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Lowe, Now an Indian, Inherits League Worst Infield Defense

Posted on October 31, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

The Atlanta Braves have just sent starting pitcher Derek Lowe to the Cleveland Indians in exchange for a low minors left-handed pitcher according to reports. The Braves will eat all but $5M of Lowe’s salary in this trade.

The Braves have had a busy day declining the option on Nate McLouth and exercising the option on Eric Hinske while trading Lowe in exchange for salary relief and Chris Jones, according to Buster Olney. Jones is a 23 year old left-handed reliever from my hometown of Tampa.

The Indians have also had a busy day declining the option on fan favorite Grady Sizemore while picking up the option on Fausto Carmona while adding Lowe at a discounted rate.

This move gives the Indians three of the top eight groundball pitchers from 2011. Lowe ranked 2nd with a 59% rate, Justin Masterson ranked 7th with 55.1% groundballs, and Carmona was 8th with 54.8% groundballs. Ubaldo Jimenez owns a career groundball rate of 50.3%. Fifth starter, Josh Tomlin, is a polar opposite with only a 35% groundball rate in his young career.

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The Biggest Deadline Winners Are…

Posted on August 1, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

The trade deadline has come and gone and it may take years to figure out who the actual “losers” are from this deadline. But, we can give a pretty clear answer as to who the winners were, especially if we are grading them on 2011 contention, which is part of the grading scale. With that, here are my top two trade deadline winners.

Cleveland Indians: The Indians did not look like a team going to the playoffs before the deadline passed. With the deadline gone they added the best pitcher on the market in Ubaldo Jimenez and they not only get him for the 2011 stretch run but they get him for the three years after for only $17.95M. Sure, they gave up Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner, and Matt McBride, but none of them made my mid-season top 25 (although Pomeranz was on a lot of mid-season top 25 lists) and Pomeranz was 64th on my pre-season top 175 White was 100th.

Cleveland also got rid of Orlando Cabrera and actually got a serviceable prospect in Thomas Neal from the Giants. Cabrera was having his worst season ever with -0.7 fWAR, .275 OBP, and -7.2 UZR. Cabrera should’ve been cut but they got a potentially good 4th outfielder in Neal for a player that actually cost the team wins. This allows them to play Jason Kipnis who should be worth at least a win over the negative value Cabrera brought. Let’s not forget that Cleveland also got Kosuke Fukudome earlier in the deadline week for organizational pieces.

Atlanta Braves: By getting Michael Bourn from the Houston Astros, the Braves did two things that they desperately needed to do: add a center fielder and add a top of the order bat. Check and check. Bourn is a plus defender in center and his .363 OBP and steals at the top of the order are a far cry from what the Braves have been getting from that lineup spot. On top of being a good defender, good base stealer, and getting on base at a good clip, he is also on of the best base runners in the game (different than stealing bases) with a Bsr of +5.6.

There were talks of the Braves going after corner outfielders with better bats but that would have been a disservice to the team who already has two good corner outfielders and desperately needed a center fielder. Now we can, hopefully, stop hearing about Jason Heyward being demoted. They did give up bulk in prospects but nothing of significant value and held on to their top prospects. Not a bad move for Bourn who also has another year of control left.

***********************Other Winners***********************

The Philadelphia Phillies were also winners by adding Hunter Pence to an already stellar team. His plus right-handed bat fits perfectly in that lineup and he should help push the Phillies over the top. This move was clearly one to make them better for the postseason and for future seasons. They did give up high reward prospects but still held onto Domonic Brown.

The Texas Rangers filled a major need by adding Koji Uehara and Mike Adams to a bullpen that really had no one outside of Neftali Feliz. The Rangers did not get rid of anyone that was part of their plans for the next year or so and gained pitching combo that has a combined 111/17 K/BB in 95 innings with a 1.42 ERA.

On the flip of the Rangers deal, the San Diego Padres received two prospects that I like a lot in Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland. Both pitchers pound the zone and will love pitching in PETCO park soon. Erlin is only 20 and has a 123/12 K/BB in 121.1 innings and is already in AA. He is not overpowering but has great control and mixes his pitches really well. Wieland has seen increased velocity to go with his good control and has a 132/15 K/BB in 129.2 innings and is 21 and in AA. Both pitchers can be flyball prone so PETCO is the right place for them.

The Pittsburgh Pirates did not add any real impact players but the players they did add are better than what they currently were trotting out on the field. Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee both offer upgrades and the Pirates did not give up much for them unless the PTBNL turns out to be significant but I highly doubt it.

The Detroit Tigers added a very underrated starter in Doug Fister who is an immediate upgrade over their current 4th and 5th starters. They gave up some low-level talent and a good 4th outfielder in Casper Wells but that is a decent price for a guy with a 3.33 ERA and 3.24 FIP. Fister may miss the Seattle defense but he will love the Detroit offense.

The Seattle Mariners added a bunch of depth and sold off Fister and Erik Bedard, which is fine because Seattle has no problem developing pitching and has a wave of arms almost ready to contribute from with in. Adding Trayvon Robinson and Francisco Martinez to a farm system desperate for bats was huge for the Mariners and Robinson, who has great raw power and will be a great defender, could be their starting left fielder next year.

Lastly, I love what the Baltimore Orioles did at the deadline. They did give up a very good reliever in Uehara but they are not contending this year and next year is a building block year for thier real contention run starting in 2013. Aaron Baker is not much of a prospect but they cleared themselves of Derrek Lee. Tommy Hunter is a serviceable swing man or 5th starter and I absolutely love Chris Davis, always have. He has so much raw power and needs to play everyday in the majors to see if he belongs. He can pass as a third basemen but is better served at first. He was hitting .368/.405/.824 with 24 homeruns in 193 AAA at-bats before being called up just over a week ago. He’s done proving it in the minors and the Orioles could have themselves a legit 35 homer guy but I would like to see him show a little more plate discipline.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

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2011 NL West Preview

Posted on March 26, 2011 by mikemcginnis

2011 NL West Preview

1. San Francisco Giants

The Good: 1-5 the Giants may have the best rotation in the Majors. Relax, Phillies fans, I said 1-5 not 1-4. Having Matt Cain and Tim Linecum on the top and three quality lefties to follow allows the Giants a chance to win on any given night.

The Bad: Any Giants fan will tell you watching the Giants offense the past few years can make you pull hair out of your head. The Giants offense can simply disappear at times all together. This may change this year however, realize, the Giants will have a full year of Buster Posey, Mark Derosa and perhaps 1B hot shot prospect Brandon Belt. Pablo Sandoval has shed some pounds and the Giants would love him to recapture his 2009 form (and actually walk once in a while) which would help offset the 24 HR and 85 RBI lost when Juan Uribe went to the Dodgers.

Keep and Eye On: Look for three youngsters to perhaps lead the Giants to another division title. The first being Buster Posey, who every one knows. Second, is lefty Madison Bumgarner, he has top of the rotation stuff and could possibly allow the Giants to trade Jonathan Sanchez or Matt Cain down the line for a big bat. Last, is the lefty hitting first baseman, Brandon Belt. From what the scouts all say, Belt is the goods and actually has five tool ability as a first baseman.

Bottom Line: Pitching wins and I think a lot of people are overlooking the World Champs. The Giants are a solid team that was not a fluke last season and if healthy should challenge seriously for a 2nd NL Pennant.

Prediction: 92-70 (1st Place)

2. Colorado Rockies

The Good: The Rockie Big Three. The Rockies are lead by Cy Young Award Candidate Ubaldo Jimenez and MVP candidates Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. That’s a good place to start from if you are a contender.

The Bad: The consistency factor is some the Rockies need to address. It seemed last year they would win 7 in a row then lose 6 in a row. It certainly did not help that the entire pitching staff behind Jimenez and the bullpen struggled both health wise and on the mound. I think the Rockies will be better this year in terms of luck.

Keep an Eye On: The supporting cast around the Big Three. It’s time for Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta and Dexter Fowler to shed the potential label and start producing consistently on the MLB level. Catchers Jordan Pacheco and Wilin Rosario could push Iannetta for the starting job at some point. Healthy and/or solid years from Aaron Cook, Huston Street, Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De La Rosa and Franklin Morales would go a long way to enable the Rockies to be serious contenders.

Bottom Line: The Rockies Big Three will have to replicate 2009 and some of the arms need to be consistent and healthy if the Colorado hopes to make it the playoffs. That maybe a lot to ask but, it would not shock me to see it happen.

Prediction: 89-73 (2nd Place)

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Good: Although Clayton Kershaw maybe the only guy that jumps out at you, the Dodgers do have a deep reliable rotation, with Jon Garland, Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley. When you have a trio of Matt Kemp, Andre Either and James Loney you have to think you have a chance to produce some decent offense consistently.

The Bad: Outside of Kemp, Loney and Either the Dodgers have age and health issues with SS Rafael Furcal, 3B Casey Blake, C Rod Barjas. Plus, Matt Kemp is coming off a dreadful year and LF is a major question mark. Furthermore, the Dodgers have a question mark at closer. Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo are fantastic setup men but, I don’t believe they have “it” to be a closers. Perhaps Kenley Jansen can get a shot at the closer spot at some point?

Keep an Eye On: The value of Juan Uribe could be immense. If he can replicate 2009 that would be a tremendous boost for the Dodger offense plus, he can help fill in possible injury holes at SS/3B.  Don’t be surprised to see minor league prospects OF Trayvon Robinson, and INF’s Dee Gordon and Ivan DeJesus Jr. to be up at some point.

Projection: Age, injuries and kids will preoccupy new Dodgers skipper, Don Mattingly’s mind in 2011. The Dodgers starting staff should keep them in a lot of games and contend this season.

Prediction: 87-75 (3rd place)

4. San Diego Padres

The Good: At this point, not very much although Mat Latos and closer Heath Bell have All-Star abilities. Then again, Petco Park is the easiest place to pitch in the Big Leagues.

The Bad: So, let’s see, you follow up an complete unexpected playoff chase by trading the face of your franchise and 60% of your offense in Adrain Gonzalez. Yes, I know, the Padres did get potential future ace Casey Kelly and 1B Anthony Rizzo but, neither are going to help this year. This offense could be really bad. The Padres have to hope Wil Venable, Chase Headley and Cameron Maybin finally put it all together on the MLB level or else every pitcher will look forward to facing this lineup. The Padres also have to hope Ryan Ludwick and Brad Hawpe can resurrect their fading careers as well.

What to Look For: The Padres could be in prime position come the trade deadline to unload Heath Bell and some of their very productive bargin bin relievers to contenders willing to give up young talent.

Projection: This franchise and fanbase has to be demoralized following the Adrian Gonzalez trade. I just don’t know how you sell it to your fans or your players. Could be a long season in San Diego.

65-97 (4th place)

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Good: The Diamondbacks should be able to score a decent amount of runs with the likes of Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson, Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, Brandon Allen and Chris Young. Kirk Gibson seems like he want players to have accountability and brings a winning attitude to the clubhouse. Barry Enright, Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy were all very solid for the D-Backs rotation last year and give some reason to hope.

The Bad: Sure, the D-Backs can score runs but, they strikeout a ton too. Whereas, the bullpen was a complete trainwreck last season. Furthermore, Hudson, Kennedy and Enright have to anchor this rotation or the Snakes are sunk. That could be a tall order for this young trio.

What to Look For: J.J. Putz was brought in to close and bring stability to the bullpen. Mark Reynolds and 200 strikeouts and 30 plus errors were dealt to Baltimore. Maybe this helps, maybe it doesn’t. The D-Backs are not without talent, they just play like a bunch of rookies. The problem is they have played that way for two striaght years with no signs of progress.

Projection: I have been fooled by the D-Backs before thinking they could be good. This time around they will have to prove to me they are better than a 90 loss team.

65-97 (4th place tied)

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