By The Numbers

Konerko

Just a few interesting numbers: (more…)

Callup Spotlight: Adrian Cardenas

Yes, Anthony Rizzo is raking at Iowa right now and Brett Jackson is the OF of the Cubs very near future, but Adrian Cardenas needs to be called up now and replace either Ian Stewart or Blake DeWitt on the active roster, and get a lions share of the time as a three-bagger.

Stewart is picking up where he left off last season with a triple slash line of .188/.258/.318. This is compared to .333/.376/.544 of Cardenas at AAA Iowa right now. Cardenas been playing mostly second base but has also seen action at shortstop and third base. (more…)

2012 Chicago Cubs Outlook: Infield

In our third installment, we’ll take a look at what options the Cubs have an the infield while they work to build their 25 man roster.

Key Departures

Aramis Ramirez: The longest tenured third baseman since Ron Santo has left Chicago and now plays for the rival Brewers. It’s going to take a lot to replace his production in the lineup, but I really think it’s time for Ramirez to move on. He’s not a clubhouse and team leader. With a younger team taking the field, veteran leaders are going to be more important than ever.

Carlos Pena: In a typical Scott Boras move, Pena signed a one year deal with the Cubs last season in hopes to boost this worth for a long term contract. It didn’t work out with him batting .225 but hitting a team leading 28 home runs. Between Pena and Ramirez that’s 54 HRs and over 170 RBIs gone from the previous season. We might see an increase in Starlin Castro‘s throwing errors without Pena scooping everything he can reach. He’s back on the Rays. (more…)

Epstein Should Trade for Crawford

Everybody has a plan for Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs. Some of the better ones involve filling the front office and almost all of them involve trading Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano.

There is an overwhelming feeling that Epstein will almost forego the 2012 season to perform a minor rebuilding effort and take a shot at 2013 and beyond. If that happens, Cubs fans can kiss goodbye to Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, and possibly Marlon Byrd while bidding a fond farewell to the aforementioned Zambrano and Soriano.

I, for one, think Epstein can put a solid team out there in 2012 while doing a minor rebuilding effort at the same time and I think his first move should be to acquire Carl Crawford from the Boston Red Sox. That’s right, the same Carl Crawford that is due $122M over the next six seasons.

Acquiring Crawford from the Red Sox would fill two potential agendas at the same time. The first would be the acquisition of a top talent that can help now and in the near future. The second would be the trading of Alfonso Soriano.

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Odd League Leaders and Trailers

As I was looking through the league leaders this morning I kept noticing the same names at the top of most stats. Matt Kemp, Roy Halladay, Clayton Kershaw, Jose Bautista, Justin Verlander, yada-yada-yada. But a few names jumped out at me that I had no clue how good, or bad of a season they were having. Here are a few of those names and their stats and ranks:

Hitters

Hits: Adrian Gonzalez leads the AL in hits and Starlin Castro the NL. It surprised me because Gonzalez has walked in over 15% of his plate appearances the past two seasons and hit leaders don’t walk that much. He is down to 9.6% this year. Castro, on the other hand, never walks (4.4% this year and 5.0% for his career) and he hits at the top of the order with a .300+ average. I was simply shocked to see a Cubs player at the top of any good stat.

RBI: Ryan Howard is usually at the top but I was surprised to see him there this year with his .249 average and Chase Utley and Shane Victorino missing time getting on base in front of him. Jamey Carroll has the fewest RBI for a qualified batting title leader with 13 in 477 PAs. Next lowest was Kosuke Fukudome with 30. You have to have people on in front of you to get RBI.

BB%: Another Cub is at the top and this time it is Carlos Pena with a 15.9% walk rate, just ahead of Joey Votto. I guess when you bat behind Castro and Darwin Barney pitchers have only used about 4 pitches and they can work around the power hitting Pena.

UZR: Remember, this is a counting stat like hits and RBI. I was shocked to see Placido Polanco leading the NL with a +11.9 in only 109 games. At the bottom of the AL was a recognizable name in Mark Reynolds but his -26.6 UZR was shockingly bad.

Games Played: Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera top their league’s games played list. Those are some big names but a bit shocking, to be quite honest.

Doubles: Tied at the top of the AL are Alex Gordon and Ben Zobrist with 45 apiece. Zobrist never had more than 28 in a season. At the bottom of the NL, among batting title qualifiers, was Polanco with 12. It struck me as odd because he has averaged 32 the past four seasons.

Strikeouts: I knew Drew Stubbs struck out a lot but 191 times so far is insane and 26 more than Ryan Howard. No surprise in the AL with Mark Reynolds at the top with 182.

Pitchers

HBP: Shaun Marcum is the only pitcher qualified for the ERA title to not hit a single batter with a pitch. He hit 6 last year and 8 the year before. Tim Hudson, who displays solid control with a 2.45 BB/9 rate, leads the NL with 14 hit batters.

Wild Pitches: Nationals reliever Henry Rodriguez leads the NL with 13 in only 59.1 innings pitched. That’s right, a reliever! Hiroki Kuroda is 2nd with 12 but in 183 innings. A.J. Burnett is not a surprise at the top of the AL but the 25 wild pitches in made me say “wow!” and in only 178.1 innings. Still not even close to Rodriguez’s wild pitch rate, though.

Intentional Walks: Chris Resop and Shawn Camp lead their respected leagues with 9 intentional walks and neither has eclipsed 70 innings pitched. Bad timing, I guess.

Fastball Velocity: Alexi Ogando is tied with Verlander in fastball velocity (among ERA title qualifiers) with 95.0 mph. Livan Hernandez‘s fastball at 83.9 mph is slower than knuckleballer R.A. Dickey‘s fastball.

Fastball ValueIan Kennedy leads the majors with a +30.7 wFB. Who would’ve known?! A.J. Burnett, who averages nearly 93 mph on his fastball, is dead last with a -28.3 wFB.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

No Shortage of All-Star Talent at Short

National League

Troy Tulowitzki (COL) – There is no better defensive shortstop in the game and this one happens to hit a ton. He leads all shortstops in UZR (+9.6) and homeruns (17). Most years he would be the starting shortstop but Jose Reyes is having an unbelievable year that garner him an MVP award and a few extra million when he hits the free agent market this winter. Tulo also ranks 2nd among all shortstops in fWAR (3.7) and ISO (.225) and he ranks 2nd in the NL among shortstops in SLUG (.495). The craziest part is that he has the 3rd lowest BABIP (.256) and if his current injury is as minor as Troy Renck reports then I predict a monster 2nd half for the All-Star. 

Starlin Castro (CHC) - I originally only had one Cub making the roster and ommitted Castro in large part to his defense but the other options just cannot outweigh what his bat has done to this point. He is hitting .307/.337/.427 with a .339 wOBA and 108 wRC+. His AVG ranks 2nd to Reyes and his OBP, wOBA, and wRC+ all rank 3rd among NL shortstops. His 1.8 fWAR ranks behind Jimmy Rollins and Stephen Drew but the gap in fWAR is not large and Castro beats them in almost every single category outside of UZR and Bsr.

American League

Asdrubal Cabrera (CLE) – The AL was very hard to narrow down and Cabrera was almost named my starter over Jhonny Peralta. He is tied with Peralta for most homeruns among AL shortstops (14) and is 2nd to him AVG (.293), SLUG (.499), wOBA (.372), wRC+ (137), ISO (.205), and fWAR by a mere tenth of a point (3.2 to 3.3). The 12 stolen bases have been a pleasant surprise and the -4.1 UZR has been the only thing that has been a negative on his 2011 resume.

Yunel Escobar (TOR) – One of the toughest decisions was only going with two reserve shortstops. Elvis Andrus is having a stellar year leading all AL shortstops in Bsr (+4.7) and stolen bases (25) but Alexi Casilla is out slugging him. Alexei Ramirez ranks 3rd among AL shortstops in fWAR (3.1) and is right with the top two guys in large part to his +7.9 UZR but his offense is a bit lacking and he only ranks 5th in wOBA (.328) among AL shortstops. I originally only had Jose Bautista as the Jays representative but I have decided that Yunel Escobar highly deserves to be here. His 2.4 fWAR may only be 4th in the AL among shortstops but he trails only Peralta in OBP (.363) by .002 points and ranks 3rd in AVG (.289), SLUG (.440), wOBA (.354), wRC+ (124), and homeruns (9). His -2.2 UZR is dragging his fWAR down and very well could be due more to positioning than anything. With the Braves he had a +10.8 UZR at short in 3324.1 innings but has a -3.5 in 1185.2 innings. I refuse to believe he somehow lost a few steps at the age of 28 and when I have seen him play he looks above-average at short. For all those reasons I ended up choosing Escobar over Ramirez and Andrus.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

My NL All-Star Infield Reserves List

Here is my NL All-Star Infield Reserve’s list. Make sure you check out my NL starting lineup as well.

Catcher: I selected Brian McCann as my starter and here are my two reserves:

Miguel Montero: Montero has had him self a nice little season so far. He has a 2.4 WAR, ranking second amongst NL catchers. He is hitting .276/.348/.472 with a wOBA of .357. He has 9 homeruns and 40 RBI to go with as well.

Ramon Hernandez: While Hernandez has pretty much been splitting time with Ryan Hanigant this year, he is having himself a solid year. In 177 PA this year, he is hitting .306/.367/.506 with 8 homeruns and a wOBA of .374. He has a 1.5 WAR and a .200 ISO.

First Base: My starting first baseman is Prince Fielder

Joey Votto: Votto has had himself a terrific year so far. He has a 3.5 WAR ranking second amongst NL first baseman and he is hitting .316/.440/.503. He has 11 homeruns and 50 RBI with a wOBA of .411.

Gaby Sanchez: This spot would go to Albert Pujols but it does not look like he will be back by the All-Star game. Nonetheless, Gaby Sanchez is having a terrific year and he is very deserving of this spot. He has a 2.6 WAR, ranking third amongst NL first baseman which is better than that of Pujols. He is hitting .298/.372/.488 with 13 homeruns and 45 RBI.

Second Base: I previously selected Danny Espinosa as the starting second baseman.

Rickie Weeks: Weeks is having a terrific year. He leads all NL second baseman in WAR (3.6) and is hitting .290/.358/.495 with 14 homeruns and an ISO of .206. He just missed out on being my starting second baseman

Brandon Phillips: For this pick I was leaning between Phillips and Kelly Johnson but I am giving Phillips the edge. He ranks third in WAR (2.7) amongst NL second baseman. He is hitting .298/.351/416 with 6 homeruns and 43 RBI. What hurt Johnson’s case was his horrific 32.5 K%, .213 AVG, and .292 OBP.

Third Baseman: I gave Ryan Roberts the nod at third base

Ty Wigginton: Wigginton has played all over this year for theRockies, but the majority of his appearances have been at third. He is hitting .267/.317/.510 with a wOBA of .362. His SLG leads all NL third baseman and his wOBA is tied for first. He also has 12 homeruns which is the highest amongst NL third baseman and the highest ISO of .243 as well.

Ryan Zimmerman: Zimmerman started off the season very well; hitting .357/.486/.536 in the months of March and April but injuries began to affect his performance and sidelined him for quite some time. His numbers are not quite all-star material, but Zimmerman is still one of the top third basemen in the league and he deserves to be on the all-star team.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes easily won the starting shortstop job for me.

Troy Tulowitzki: Jose Reyes has performed out of his mind this year but Tulo has been having a very nice season himself too. He has a 3.1 WAR ranking 2nd amongst NL shortstop’s and he leads all shortstop’s in homeruns with 14. He is hitting .272/.336/.382 with an impressive 50 RBI and .210 ISO as well.

Starlin Castro: Castro started of the season on a tear. He settled down a little but is still hitting .319/.349/.443 with a wOBA of .353. His 1.8 WAR ranks 5th amongst NL shortstops but it is only 0.2 wins behind 4th place and 0.3 wins behind 3rd. He has 10 stolen bases as well as 107 hits which ranks second behind Jose Reyes.

Wrigley Field Isn’t a Dump. The Team Might Be

A recent stop to Wrigley Field by the crew of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN did much to again dispel the notion that the place is more a dump than it is a shrine of baseball. The stadium had come under recent scrutiny as something that needed to be replaced. Let’s hope that idea doesn’t happen soon as we’ve lost enough landmarks as it is. The emphasis on the stadium by the Sunday Night crew was merciful because it lessened the scrutiny that should be put on the team and not the stadium. Nothing is going right for the Cubs and we’ve heard talk about injuries to people like Marlon Byrd and Darwin Barney. But injuries occur for every team. The contention of this writer is that the stadium shouldn’t be torn down and rebuilt. The Cubs, though, perhaps are another story.

There are so many cheap shots this writer could take. The owner has a name that calls to mind a childhood disease. The field is named after childhood dentists’ worst nightmare. But we’ll try to take the high road here. The obvious fact is that this team needs to be torn down to begin again. Lou Piniella obviously lost the team last year. The Cubs had a brutal start. This writer railed from the outskirts that old Lou needed to go. He was the problem. And sure enough, the old guy did step down and Mike Quade took over and the team took off. But here it is a year later with that same Mike Quade and the Cubs are pretty much where they were a year ago with Sweet Lou. And Buster Olney of ESPN.com is hinting that Quade has lost some of the clubhouse.

None of those facts and innuendos add up to good news for the Cubs. If a certain segment of the team has been “lost” by Quade after Piniella “lost” the clubhouse last year, perhaps it’s time to get rid of the members in the clubhouse. Let them go poison some other teams for a change. Part of the Cubs’ story is about sunk costs. There are enormous contracts to Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano. What good are those three if you have a team that is kicking its legs like a turtle turned upside down? Sunk costs are sunk costs. You aren’t going to get rid of the costs no matter what, but you can get rid of the players.

Alfonso Soriano will make $18 million this year…and next year…and the year after that…and the year after that. He was worth around $7 million last year and will have to hustle in the second half to earn that this season. He is a sunk cost. It isn’t going to get better. Why not admit that and get rid of the guy. Plenty of teams could use a DH in the American League if the Cubs were paying the tab. Perhaps some of those teams would even give a marginal prospect or two. The Cubs aren’t going anywhere anyway. Get rid of him.

Aramis Ramirez is getting paid anywhere from $14.6 million to $16 million this year. He might be an eight or nine million dollar player this season. There is a club option for him next year. There is no way the club will pick that up. From many accounts, the guy doesn’t try very hard. There are too many whispers about him to not think there is something behind those whispers. Ramirez has a $1 million clause in his contract if he is traded. That complicates the Cubs’ prospects of making a deal this year. If there are no takers. Then release him. He’s a sunk cost anyway.

Carlos Zambrano is a sunk cost. He’s getting $18 million or thereabouts this year and will make the same next year. He’s really worth closer to $10 million. He’s only 30 years old and probably has the highest trade value of the three players we’ve talked about. It’s possible that a team would take a chance on him and give up some value to get him. That should be encouraged as much as possible. It’s time for his era to end in Chicago.

The pain involved with getting rid of three anchors of your team is finding people to take their place. But if you are fallen and can’t get up, that pain can’t be lessened by keeping players who make too much money and may be a drag to your team in the clubhouse and on the field. Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney are a step in the right direction and show what can happen by getting younger. The drawback is that those two players lack some skills needed to improve the Cubs (like getting on base by being patient at the plate). The bottom line is that the people they have can’t or won’t get the job done.

The Cubs need to concentrate on pitching and defense. Matt Garza has been a disappointment. But at least he was a step in the right way of thinking. He has a big time arm and that’s what the Cubs need to start stockpiling. They also need to fix their defense. The Cubs are dead last in the majors in fielding efficiency and fielding percentage. That’s a deadly double-whammy. Ridding yourself of Soriano and Ramirez will not hurt there either.

The one constant through all these long-term signings and through the way too many years of stuttering is the general manager. He’s been the constant in this picture since July 5, 2002. He certainly is a love him or hate him kind of guy. And it’s hard to argue with the Cubs winning three division titles under Hendry. But since 2008, the team has foundered without any break in the gloom except for their second half run last year. Perhaps there needs to be a change in direction. Perhaps it is time to say that Hendry has had his chance and it hasn’t worked out. That’s business and that’s life. These Cubs…these misfits with big wallets are his. If this writer was Mr. Ricketts, the mandate would be to get rid of the high priced and low productivity and get as much as you can for them. How well that assignment goes would be the win/loss variables for job security.

We hear a lot about the Cub fans. We hear about their loyalty and about the diehard nature of their yearly existence. They deserve at least some indication that the problems are understood and that a plan is in place to undo the mistakes of the past. Those fans know that the bottom line is that this club is bloated and beached like a whale and even if Quade was Captain Ahab, it’s going to be impossible to get that whale back off the beach.

-William J. Tasker, a/k/a The Flagrant Fan, a knowledgeable and passionate baseball fan that can be followed on twitter and found writing daily at his blog

Who’s the Cubs All-Star: Castro, Garza, or Marshall?

The Chicago Cubs will most likely be sending only one representative to the All-Star game on July 12th in Arizona. Who will that one representative be? After taking a long look at the roster I have it narrowed down to three choices: Matt Garza, Starlin Castro, and Sean Marshall. Here is a profile on each one’s season so far:

Starlin Castro has the highest fWAR on the team among position players at 1.7 but that number ranks only 5th among NL shortstops. I was surprised to see that he had the 2nd worst UZR among NL shortstops with -5.9 because his range is well above-average. His rWAR is even worse at 0.6 and while his bat has been great this year, hitting .320/.348/.442 with a .354 wOBA, the negative defensive play may have shot his chances at an All-Star bid.

Some may discredit Matt Garza because of his 4.11 ERA but he leads all Cubs with a 2.0 fWAR on the season. Garza also ranks 2nd in the National League with a K/9 of 9.63 and he has been the victim of some bad luck with the 5th highest BABIP at .332. His FIP is a stellar 2.88 and his xFIP is also stellar at 2.90, which is 6th best in the NL. One can argue that he has been the most valuable player on the team. Unfortunately, his 2.0 fWAR ranks just 11th in the NL among a deep crop of starting pitchers.

Sean Marshall is the last player on this team that I would consider for a spot on the roster. He is tied for the 3rd highest fWAR among NL relievers with 1.0 and that number is also tied for 3rd highest on the Cubs pitching staff. Marshall has done everything well this year. He has a 2.41 ERA, 2.22 FIP, and 2.58 xFIP to go with a 9.09 K/9 and 56.8% groundball rate. He has also been a bit unlucky with a .337 BABIP.

This is a tough choice. I love Matt Garza’s peripherals but the starting pitching crop is much too deep to choose him. Starlin Castro has been great with the bat but both UZR and Total Zone agree that his defense has been awful this year and we have to remember that there are two sides to the ball. This leaves me with choosing Sean Marshall. The All-Star roster is always in need of a lefty out of the bullpen that can get a strikeout or groundball and Marshall gets nothing but strikeouts and groundballs. I like to include three or less relievers on my All-Star roster and he is the 3rd most valuable reliever according to fWAR. Welcome to the 2011 All-Star roster Sean Marshall.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

Strange Occurances in Early Numbers

 

We are 10% of the way through the 2011 season and there have been some amazing numbers so far, both pretty and ugly. It is early but who doesn’t enjoy a nice dose of numbers for your brain to chew on? Well, I’m providing the numbers so go ahead and give your brain an appetizer.

*Walk Rates*

-Vladimir Guerrero and Brent Morel are the only two players with at least 50 plate appearances and no walks. Morel has 52 PAs and Vlad has 62 PAs. Adrian Beltre and Michael Young, the Rangers new and old thirdbasemen, have two combined walks in 133 PAs.

-The Rockies know how to walk. Chris Iannetta ranks 2nd with a BB-rate of 23.1%, Jonathan Herrera is 4th at 21.6%, and Troy Tulowitzki is 9th at 19.2%. They have 37 combined walks, more than the entire Twins team, the same as the entire Orioles team, and one less than the entire Astros team. Three up-the-middle players have as many or more walks than two American League teams. Unbelievable.

**Strikeout Rates**

-Apparently Chicago is a good place for contact. A.J. Pierzynski only has one strikeout in 53 PAs for a 2.1% K-rate, tops in the Majors. Aramis Ramirez, who had a career K% of 15.5% and a 19.4% in 2010 only has three strikeouts in 68 PAs this year for a 5.0% K-rate, the 2nd best K% in the league. Starlin Castro has the 3rd best rate at 5.6% and Darwin Barney is 6th best at 6.7%.

-Detroit outfielders are exempt from making contact. Ryan Raburn leads the Majors with a 41.5% K-rate and Austin Jackson is 10th at 32.8%. They have a combined 42 strikeouts in 128 PAs. Only two others have reached the 20 strikeout mark so far this season. By comparison, teammate Justin Verlander, a good strikeout pitcher, has faced the 2nd most batters this season (116) and has 27 strikeouts.

***Extra-Base Hits***

-Jason Barltett is the only player with at least 50 PAs that does not have an extra-base hit. Another former Ray, Carlos Pena, only has one extra-base hit (a double) in 53 PA.

-Tulowitzki, Alex Rodriguez, and Jonny Gomes rank 1-3 in ISO with each at or above .400. Sick early power! More on Tulowitzki: With a Major League leading 7 homers he has more homers than the Twins (5) and as many as the A’s.

****Fielding****

-These are very early numbers but the Mariners, who have long been known for good defensive metrics, are dead last in UZR with -16.1 and have the 3rd and 4th worst players according to UZR. Ichiro Suzuki apparently has a -4.6 UZR and Milton Bradley has a -4.5 UZR. Early UZR numbers are hard to take as gospel especially when you see Carl Crawford with a -4.2 UZR.

-The Indians are amazing on defense with a Major League leading +10.3 UZR lead by Jack Hannahan who leads all players at +4.2 UZR. Shin-Soo Choo is tied for 10th with a +3.2 UZR.

*****Biggest Team Stat Surprise*****

-If you thought the Astros were a horrible offensive club you were correct. They have a wRC+ of 91 (100 is league average) and are hitting .262/.315/.381 which is bad by itself but actually may be higher than their norm. That poor triple-slash line is carried by a .326 BABIP (3rd best in the league) which means that once the BABIP evens itself out you might see a decrease in production from an already poor offense.

******Biggest Player Surprise******

-There really is no bigger surprise this season than Sam Fuld, is there? Fuld was a career minor-leaguer who was the last piece, a throw-in, of a trade. He made the Rays out of spring training as their 5th outfielder and found himself in the starting lineup shortly after. He is currently hitting .396/.431/.604 with a .449 wOBA, wRC+ of 197, and AL leading 7 stolen bases. He also has a +2.4 UZR and has been worth 1.0 fWAR. He is a human highlight reel and has become a Legend in the Tampa Bay area and beyond.

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