Fantasy Predictions: Catcher Trends

McCann

Brian McCann is on a downward spiral that is somewhat alarming.  His ABs have dropped each of the past four years, and with good reason.  Last year he posted career lows in RBI, Batting average, and he posted his first SLG under .400.  In addition, his OPS, hits, and doubles has dropped each of the past four seasons.  He also had his lowest HR total since 2007.   McCann can still be a major force, but the trends suggest that his best days are behind him.

Projection:  11HR 56 RBI .249 avg

Ryan Hanigan had a career high in AB last season.  That’s the good news.  The bad news is that he posted a career low in HR, And he posted a meager .338 SLG.  But not all hope is lost.  Hanigan has a great eye and walks (.370 career OBP) and he makes contact.  He may never be a feared slugger, but he could be worth a late pickup as your number two catcher.  Interesting stat:  In 6 years he has not attempted a SB. (more…)

Baseball Notes for December 31, 2012

Hanley

The holiday season slowed down the hectic MLB offseason, which had operated on full blast for more than a month. Although many free agents have signed with new teams, there is still a lot going on around baseball as 2012 comes to an end.

***It may be the week after Christmas, but it’s never too late to share stories of baseball and good will. Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times wrote about a young fan’s actions and experience of a lifetime while attending a Los Angeles Dodgers’ game earlier this year.

11-year-old Jack Baur (no, not the guy from 24) was sitting in the stands during an August game when he was struck by a bat that slipped from the grasp of Los Angeles third baseman Hanley Ramirez and ricocheted off another child. Fortunately, both youngsters were okay. Security immediately retrieved the bat to return to Ramirez, but new team owner Magic Johnson saw everything transpire and brought autographed balls to the two boys and made sure they weren’t hurt. It turned out that wasn’t the end of the situation. (more…)

Who Are These Guys?

Cashman

Okay, who are you guys and what have you done with the real New York Yankees?  This isn’t the Yankees that we know and love….or hate in many circles.  Typically at this time of the year, the Yankees have thrown millions of dollars at players, and they usually get their man.  This year, despite perhaps more needs than in past years, the Yankees have been sitting on the sidelines watching potential Yankees going elsewhere.  Not only that, but they are letting their own leave as well.  With A-Rod on the shelf, Jeff Keppinger, or resigning Eric Chavez would have been the most logical moves.  Yet, both players have signed elsewhere.  So, what’s going on in the Bronx? (more…)

Who Will Represent Oakland in the All-Star Game?

This is a weird team to try and find an All-Star on. Injuries and a horrible offense have plagued this team all year. The highest fWAR player on the team is injured starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy who only has nine starts on the season. His 2.0 fWAR is almost double the highest offensive player’s total and 0.6 higher than the next closest player. One could easily argue that the “one player per team” rule is ridiculous and, while they would probably be right, Oakland would most likely be left without a player on the American League All-Star team this year.

Gio Gonzalez leads all non-injured Athletics with 1.4 fWAR. He currently sits with a 2.69 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 87 innings pitched. His 8.48 K/9 ranks 6th among all AL starters but his 4.34 BB/9 are second worst in the AL. The two things Gio has going for him are that the Athletics have to have a representative at the game and that the AL roster will need a left-hander that can get a strikeout late in the game.

Trevor Cahill was well on his way to not only making the All-Star roster but competing for the AL Cy Young Award. He has cooled down considerably and currently sits at 1.2 fWAR with a 3.24 ERA and 3.97 FIP in 100 innings pitched. He is 3rd in the AL among starting pitchers with a 55.5% ground ball rate and has a decent 6.67 K/9 but, like Gio, he walks too many guys with a 3.78 BB/9 which is 5th worst in the AL.

Another option is to pull someone from the bullpen, which has been a bright spot for this club. Brad Ziegler leads the bullpen with 0.6 fWAR and has a 1.93 ERA and 1.97 FIP and gets 66.7% ground balls but only has 23.1 innings. I would rather see Grant Balfour get the nod with his 9.48 K/9 and 2.59 EAR in 31.1 innings.

Kurt Suzuki is the leading offensive candidate. He leads the team in fWAR with 1.1 and as a catcher you might be able to justify finding him a spot on the All-Star roster but the AL already has Russell Martin winning a spot due to voting and Alex Avila might be the most deserving catcher. Carlos Santana and Matt Wieters deserve to be on the team ahead of Suzuki as well. Suzuki may not be the best choice based on stats but he may the only candidate to represent this team.

If I had to pick today I would probably go with Gio Gonzalez. I am not big on having more than 3-4 relievers on the All-Star roster and Gio has, so far, had the best season among those who have worn an Athletics jersey and can still throw a ball 60 feet 6 inches.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

Is There A New Guard Wearing Shin Guards?

A little more than ten percent of the Major League Baseball season has been played thus far. And while that seems like a lot, we are still in the early days of the season and “Sample Size!” needs to be yelled above the writer of any post when talking about player performance to this point. Throwing that caution to the wind, and yet looking back at it in terror, this series of thoughts centers on the early leader board for catchers around the majors. While Brian McCann is still at the top of his game and tied for the lead for catchers in wins above replacement (WAR), other catchers previously near the top like Carlos Ruiz and Giovany Soto have started off the season mildly and are only in the middle of the pack. Other long-time stalwarts like Jorge Posada (now a DH), Joe Mauer (chronic ailments) and Yadier Molina (still plugging away) are invisible. Alongside McCann are a few names unfamiliar to their position at the top of the league’s catchers.

Russell Martin is near the top, which shouldn’t be a surprise. This very writer predicted as such before the season started. After a few rough season, Martin is back where he was a few seasons ago. His start is hardly a fluke as he’s performed this well in the past. Apparently, all he needed was a kick in the humility basket to refocus his talent. Mission accomplished. But two catchers ahead of him are tied with McCann and they are Miguel Montero and Nick Hundley. Buster Posey is also tied for the lead in WAR with the names already mentioned, but again, that is hardly a surprise as he mounted his flag of excellence last year. But Montero and Hundley? Are they part of the changing of the guard in catching talent? Let’s take a look.

Let’s start with Nick Hundley of the San Diego Padres. The 27-year old Hundley–who is not related for catchers Ted and Todd Hundley–has been with the Padres for four years now. He’s never been more than a platoon catcher playing nearly half of the Padres games. Last year, he split time with Yorvit Torrealba, which is strange, because both hit right-handed. The year before, Hundley shared time with the aged Henry Blanco. This year, the position belongs to Hundley and he has played in sixteen of the team’s eighteen games thus far. And his numbers seem to have responded to his newfound status. Torrealba has moved on to Texas.

Thus far, Hundley has an impressive slash line of: .339/.397/.571, good for an OPS+ of 170. That’s pretty darned impressive.  He has also slightly improved his ability to throw out potential base stealers and for the first time in recent seasons, his fielding is neutral instead of being in the negative category. Is there any indication that Hundley can keep this up? Unfortunately, there is not. He is a career .718 OPS guy after being a .783 OPS kind of guy in the minors (.743 in Triple A).

Sure, there have been late bloomers before. And sure, his minor league numbers are higher than his major league numbers in part-time duty. But there are other indicators that he can’t sustain his current slash line. The first indication is that he is not selective enough at the plate. In full time duty this year, his walk rate is 7.9 percent. That’s the same exact walk rate for his career. That lack of plate discipline leads to bad spells at the plate which will lower his overall numbers at the end.  He is swinging at less pitches out of the strike zone according to Fangraphs.com, but the walk results are exactly the same.

On top of that damning bit of evidence is that his ground ball and fly ball rates are very near his career norms and the only spikes are in his fly ball to home run rate and his BABIP (batting average on balls in play). His homer to fly ball rate is nearly double his career norm and his BABIP is an unattainable .410. Hundley may be able to maintain his fielding levels with more regular work, but regression is truly likely for Hundley and he should fall on the leader board.

Miguel Montero is another story. Of course, we were all looking for a different Montero to bloom this year. But Jesus Montero didn’t make the Yankees this spring and this other Montero is doing what many hoped Jesus would do. Right off the bat, we know that Miguel Montero can’t maintain a .405 BABIP over the course of the season, so he’s not going to hit .359 like he is now. But McCann has a .410 BABIP and he’s not going to sustain that either. But unlike Hundley, Montero has a better history of plate discipline.

Montero also has a better history with his walk rate. Yes, his first two years in the majors has him hovering in the high single digits, which make his current rate of 13.1 percent look fluky. Montero did show more patience in the minors than Hundley ever did, so his walk rate should end up higher than Hundley’s. The one caveat of saying that is Montero is swinging at more pitches out of the strike zone this year than in the past, but perhaps that can be explained with his hot hitting and wanting to keep that rolling.

Montero has more sustainable power than Hundley, plays in a state (Arizona) that is more conducive to maintaining his power numbers and has a much higher minor league OPS than Hundley. If Hundley were to maintain his high ranking on the catcher leader board, it would be a shock. But if Montero were to do so, it would be much less so. Montero is known as a less than stellar defender behind the plate. But his numbers in 2010 and 2011 show little indication of that. The Fans Scouting Report seems to bear that out a little bit more. Montero has to remain solid defensively to stay among the leaders.

So, is this a changing of the (shin) guard? Maybe not. Posey will be there at the top as will McCann barring injury. Ruiz and Soto have shown a three year trend of improvement and should end up with good numbers. Joe Mauer may no longer be an every day catcher and Jorge Posada may never catch again. Martin will end up near the top. It seems safe to say that Nick Hundley will not end up there and Miguel Montero has a medium chance at doing so.

Imagine the Yankees’ Roster in It’s Prime

 

Entering the 2011 season, the Yankees lineup was full of stars, and that has been the norm for this franchise. Baseball fans are used to seeing the Yankees throw out huge salaries to top of the line free agents each offseason. Well this off-season we really didn’t see that as it was highlighted by signings such as Russell Martin, Eric Chavez, Andruw Jones, Freddy Garcia, and so on.  Their current roster has an interesting mix of hall of famers, all stars, veterans well past their prime, and a few young guys. Most of these guys, excluding some of the reserve players and relievers, have had an all-star caliber season (many of them have had more than one.) Well just imagine if all the players on this roster were in their prime. It would be scary good! Let us take a look at the roster and each players highest WAR Season.

Starting Lineup:

Brett Gardner: 5.4

Derek Jeter: 7.5

Mark Teixeira: 7.3

Alex Rodriguez: 9.8

Robinson Cano: 6.4

Nick Swisher: 4.1

Jorge Posada: 6.4

Curtis Granderson: 7.4

Russell Martin: 5.8

Bench:

Eric Chavez: 5.9

Andruw Jones: 8.3

Gustavo Molina: 0.0

Eduardo Nunez: -0.1

Starting Pitchers:

C.C. Sabathia: 7.6

A.J. Burnett: 5.5

Phil Hughes: 2.4

Ivan Nova: 0.5

Freddy Garcia: 5.5

Bullpen (The league high is typically around 3.0 for relievers):

Mariano Rivera: 3.3

Rafael Soriano: 2.0

Joba Chamberlain: 3.3

David Robertson: 0.8

Boone Logan: 0.4

Luis Ayala: 1.8

Bartolo Colon: 5.0

That roster would just be ridiculous!

AL Rookie of the Year Preview

Please welcome Harrison Crow as this week’s guest writer for MLBdirt.  Harrison writes for SoDo Mojo, a Seattle Mariners blog a part of the Fan Sided Blogging Network. You can also find more of his work on his personal blog Far From Port. Make sure you follow Harrison on Twitter as well. Here is his first guest article for the site previewing the AL Rookie of the Year.

Going into a fresh season there is always young and exciting new talent that is right on the verge of taking that next giant step. They’ve dominated the minors and now they seem poised to make waves across the league. While there are usually only a handful of guys every year that make any type of significant impact right away only one of those that will capture the honor as “rookie-of-the-year” (RoY) award.

Even if your team might not yet have a said “up and comer” that is major league ready it’s exciting to keep up with them and appreciate what they accomplish over the course of the season. Looking just at last year we had some extremely exciting moments where youngsters crashed the scene.

Most people have a wide perspective and they look all over the Major League Baseball. That’s for them but, for me I enjoy baseball played in the America League. That’s my focus and it’s the youngsters I look forward to seeing when my favorite team and the team of my youth, the Seattle Mariners, as bad as they are roll through town I look forward to seeing the young and budding stars. The American League produced youngsters Wade Davis, Carlos Santana, Neftali Feliz, Brian Matusz, Daniel Hudson and Austin Jackson all leaving their mark on 2010.

The question now becomes who will emerge from 2011? Let’s take a look at a few of the possible candidates:

Considered one of the top-3 prospects in all of baseball, Jeremy Hellickson of the Tampa Bay Rays. Armed with a fastball that lights up radars and a curve that will sink hearts. Hellickson, affectionately refereed to as “hell boy”, is the odds on favorite for the RoY but there are plenty of others that will contend and make him earn it. Including his own teammate. Leading us to the next name on the list.

Desmond Jennings, was one of the reasons that the Rays let Carl Crawford walk (oh the money was kind of a big thing too). Rated #3 overall in the Rays organization by Baseball America, Jennings profiles as a potential all-star in center. The have Rays high hope that Jennings will able to take over as the lead-off man and replace at least a portion of the hole left behind by Carl Crawford. Something that does work against the youngster is the fact that no pure speedster as won the ROY since Vince Coleman (1985).

Much like the Rays, the Seattle Mariners potentially boast two possible RoY candidates in right-hander Michael Pineda and Second basemen Dustin Ackley. The only real question is whether either will start the season with the club. Ackley, the former #2 overall pick in the 2009 draft (right behind Stephen Strasburg), will return to AAA Tacoma to get a little more seasoning prior to a mid-season call-up. But could very well show himself to be one of the leagues most elite hitters.

Pineda, however, appears to be the front runner as the 5th starter in the Mariners rotation. He rocks an elite fastball with both great movement and command along with an above average slider and a change-up that is an average pitch. He may quickly elevate himself to the #2 guy behind King Felix in that rotation. But that will depend on some big adjustments that

Keeping with the tradition of teams and two star prospects the Toronto Blue Jays are no different. They boast the gem of the Roy Halladay trade Kyle Drabek. Drabek, whose father Doug Drabek pitched for a total of 13 seasons, features a 12-6 curveball that drops off the table, a four seam fastball capable of hitting the 96 mph and adding a cutter last winter to help keep left handed hitters off balance. While he has some health concerns he has the talent to be a top of the rotation pitcher

The other Blue Jay sounded his coming last fall. When in his major league debut, J.P. Arencibia collected four hits, with two of them home runs, against the Tampa Bay Rays. Sure afterwards he went 1-30 but lets focus on the positives. Arencibia has huge power and if he can improve his talents behind the plate could be one of the premier sluggers in the game behind the plate. He has question marks swirling about his defensive make-up but if he can improve and stay behind the plate he has the potential to easily become one of the better ones in the league.

The Royals fall into the it-takes-two category. Sporting Mike “Moose” Moustakas and Eric “I-dont-know-if-he-has-a-nick-name” Hosmer. Not to mention they have two in waiting that could possible debut at the end of the year in John Lamb and Mike Montgomery. It’s very possible that the Kansas City Royals currently have the farm system of the decade. Moose and Hosmer most likely won’t start off the season with the major league team, but like Dustin Ackley, could find themselves working their way into consideration for the RoY after a mid-season call-up.

The next name on the list is a pretty familiar name Jesus Montero. One of the top tier, elite, up-and-coming hitters in all of baseball and a product of the New York Yankee farm system. Montero doesn’t just sport power, though he has gobs and gobs of it, he’s an extremely proficient hitter making him all the more dangerous. He continues to end up in possible trade talks but he’s still around and appears ready to start the season as Russell Martin‘s back-up. It’s very possible that Martin doesn’t ever return to the player he was and by the end of May Montero is the every day guy behind the plate. Some worry about is overall ability behind the dish. But, from the looks at spring training he could turn out to survive enough to have a few serviceable years back there.

Chris Carter had a very painful fall last year going 0-33 during a 70 at bat audition as a member of the Oakland Athletics. Rated #2 overall prospect in the organization by Baseball America, just behind Grant Green, Carter is a beast of an hitter with exceptional power. He will be carried by his bat as the converted first basemen, now left fielder, will be at very best average in the field. While he has difficulty recognizing break balls he works a count and takes an absurd amount of walks. If he can get his strike outs under control Carter could be a serious problem for AL West pitchers for years to come.

Dark Horse Hitter: Lonnie Chisenhall – Cleveland Indians

Ben Badler of Baseball America calls Chisenhall one of the best pure bats in all of the minor leagues and right now the Cleveland Indians are having problems filling third base and finiding a reason not to start him out of AAA. Between Jason Donald‘s injury and the alternative being Jack Hannahan there lies the potential for Chi to start the season with the big league club. Chisenhall looks like a potential all-star and while realistically he could use a bit more seasoning and will most likely start the season in AAA, he will be up with the big league squad in no time.

Dark Horse Pitcher: Zach Britton – Baltimore Orioles

Britton was recently labeled by Jim Callis over at Baseball America as one of the most polished pitchers out of all the elite up-and-comers (out of Kyle Gibson, Drabek, Pineda, Britton, Jake McGee, or Manny Banuelos). Which isn’t surprising really. Drafted as a 3rd rounder in 2007 Britton’s fastball sits in the mid 90s and has one of the best sinkers in baseball already and generates tons of ground outs. This combined with a second plus-pitch in his slider gives him a great 1-2 punch. But what makes him more successful than some of his other competitors is his ability to throw his change-up for a consistent strike and have confidence in it.

2011 Fantasy Rankings – Catchers

Carlos Santana

When it comes to catchers the concern for me is when to take them. Do you take the top catcher on your board early? Do you join the catcher-run when it starts? All tough situations that you can ponder but really cannot answer until the opportunity stares you down. I believe there is decent depth at catcher this year, especially if you are in a 10-team mixed league but be warned, there are few that can help in more than 3-4 categories.

With that, here are my rankings for catcher:

Rank Player Tier
1 Joe Mauer 1
2 Carlos Santana 1
3 Buster Posey 1
4 Brian McCann 1
5 Victor Martinez 1
6 Mike Napoli 2
7 Geovanny Soto 2
8 Miguel Montero 2
9 Matt Wieters 2
10 Kurt Suzuki 3
11 Jorge Posada 3
12 Chris Iannetta 3
13 Yadier Molina 4
14 J.P. Arencibia 4
15 Carlos Ruiz 4
16 John Buck 4
17 John Jaso 4
18 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 4
19 Ryan Doumit 4
20 Hank Conger 5
21 Chris Snyder 5
22 A.J. Pierzynski 5
23 Alex Avila 5
24 Russell Martin 5
25 Jesus Montero 5
26 Ramon Hernandez 5
27 Nick Hundley 5
28 Josh Thole 5
29 Wilson Ramos 5
30 Jonathan Lucroy 5
31 Tyler Flowers 6
32 Miguel Olivo 6
33 Jason Castro 6
34 Ryan Hanigan 6
35 Yorvit Torrealba 6

 

Three I’d Reach For Reason
Carlos Santana With all due respect to Mauer, Santana could be the #1 catcher by the end of the season. His power and On-Base Skills are huge, especially my main league.
Mike Napoli Love the park, love the power, love the lineup, love the potential.
Chris Iannetta He will probably hit below .250 but he walks and has power. Oh, and he plays in Colorado and should finally get the bulk of at-bats at catcher. Career: 13.1% BB rate and HR every 22 at-bats.

 

Three I’ll Let Pass Reason
Victor Martinez I would just rather wait for Napoli than reach for Martinez once the catcher run starts.
Jorge Posada The hit tool is fading as is his health. Plus Yankee fans love to draft him. They can have him.
Miguel Olivo Poor on-base skills, horrible park. I’ll pass completely on him.

 

Top 3 Rookie C Reason
J.P. Arencibia Could hit 25+ homers this year.
Hank Conger His bat can play now, his glove needs work. Should get bulk of at-bats with Angels.
Jesus Montero Posada and Russell Martin are the only things holding him back. He should get at-bats at catcher and DH by May.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

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