Top Rookies Report Card

Posted on October 27, 2011 by William J. Tasker

Major League Baseball’s Rookie of the Year Award is a lot like the Best New Artist award at the Grammys. A very good start to a career doesn’t guarantee that it will be a great career. It’s not even a predictor that the player will have a good career. And that makes sense because outliers can happen just as much in a player’s first year as it can in subsequent years. Young players can get hurt and scouting reports can pinpoint flaws in the young player’s game. If the young player does not adjust properly to these new strategies against him, a downturn to oblivion can occur. Fortunately, teams have somewhat of a cushion if faced with this blow because the system is set up so that young players can’t make very much money.

What this post aims to do is to give you a list of the top voted rookies from 2002 to 2004 to see how those who have had great rookie seasons have fared since. Perhaps we’ll catch up the list in a later post.

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Willie Mays Award – American League

Posted on October 3, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

I posted my National League ballot earlier today and I continue with my American League ballot now. This is by far the more difficult of the two awards to decide on.

There are probably one of four guys that I think belong at the top and I have to narrow it down to a ballot of three. Very difficult but I will try my best.

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Willie Mays Award – National League

Posted on October 3, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Continuing on with my postseason awards, we will move to the Willie Mays Award. The award is given by members of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance (BBA) to the most outstanding rookie each year. Willie Mays was one of the first to ever win the award back in 1951.

Below is my National League ballot and a list of those who barely missed the cut. This year’s National League rookie of the year award probably should have been renamed the Braves vs. Nationals award.

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The Braves Bullpen Down the Stretch

Posted on September 21, 2011 by Michael Schwartze

Craig Kimbrel

The Atlanta Braves bullpen has been terrific this year and there is no question about it. Their bullpen ranks second in saves (51), second in K/9 (9.32), second in HR/9 (0.56), third in ERA (3.01), first in FIP (3.09), and tied for first in WAR (7.2). Good starting pitching paired with a great bullpen has really helped the Braves get to where they currently are. Atlanta is leading the NL wild card with a 2.5 game lead over a very hot St. Louis Cardinals team.

The Braves do not have a very big lead at all so they will have to be playing their best baseball to hold off the surging Cardinals. One very important factor down the stretch could be the bullpen of the Braves.

The three main workhorses for the Braves this year out of the bullpen have been Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O’Flaherty. If we take a look at the games appeared leaders for relievers, these three pitchers rank in the top 4.

  1. Jonny Venters, 82 games
  2. Jose Veras, 78 games
  3. Craig Kimbrel, 77 games
  4. Eric O’Flaherty, 75 games

These young relievers have been terrific this year but have they been overworked? I will take a look at each reliever and a little on each of their season’s.

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Why Can’t a Pitcher Win the MVP?

Posted on August 31, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Thanks to Justin Verlander‘s already remarkable season there has been a lot of good debate on what an MVP is and who can and should win the award.

The main debate settles on whether a pitcher should be able to win the award due to the fact that they already have the Cy Young Award. If that logic stands then we need to take rookies out of the equation because they have an award and all solid defensive players because they also get hardware in the form of a Gold Glove. By this logic the MVP should be awarded to the best offensive performer, and in all honesty, it has been on many occasions. What people tend to forget is that hitters also receive an award called a Silver Slugger and an even more prestigious Hank Aaron award, which is the hitter’s equivalent of the Cy Young Award. I think the term “logic fail” applies here.

Another argument we hear in this debate is that pitchers only play in about 200-225 innings or 30-35 games. While this may be true we seem to be forgetting the amount of impact those 200+ innings have but let me share a few tidbits first.

David Ortiz finished 2-4 in the MVP for four consecutive years from 2004-2007 and in those four seasons he averaged 684 plate appearances and only 113 or so innings in the field playing below average first base nonetheless. Voters still had no problem giving him first place votes and helping him land 2nd, 3rd, and 4th twice in the MVP voting even though he impacted less than 700 plate appearances with his bat and made a negative impact with his glove which negates a little of the value he held with his bat. I remember people up in arms in 2005 and 2006 about Ortiz not winning the award because, again, the MVP had somehow become the best hitter’s award.

Jose Bautista is having the best offensive season of anyone in either league. He currently leads the league in homeruns, walks, OBP, SLUG, OPS+, wRC+, wOBA… You get the point. He, like Ortiz, will end up impacting the game in less than 700 plate appearances with his bat. But, unlike Ortiz, Bautista actually plays the field and plays a few positions. His current dWAR has him above-average but his current UZR has him below average. Even if he is simply average we have to give him credit for 1200 or so innings he will accumulate in the field by the end of the year and playing a position on par with his peers. This is by far more valuable than the same amount of PAs and not fielding a position but 10-12 games a year and fielding it poorly.

Back to Verlander (or any pitcher for that matter). We see that a full-time hitter who hits near the top of the order will impact the game in roughly 700 PAs throughout the year. Did you happen to know that a pitcher like Verlander or Roy Halladay impact the game in nearly 1000 PAs over a full season? Verlander is currently on pace to face about 993 batters this year. Sure, a pitcher only plays 200-220 innings in the field and only fields roughly 50 plays but they impact 250-300 more plate appearances than a hitter does throughout any given year and they are tasked with controlling the running game as well.

Do the extra 1000 innings in the field equal the extra 250-300 affected plate appearances? Is there one that out-weighs the other? That is a question that is hard to quantify but even if a player makes a play every third inning that equates to 333 plays over those extra 1000 innings. Those also are not plays that are inversely affected by the hitter or pitcher, though, and should carry less value.

Bottom line is that there is no logical reason a starting pitcher should not be able to win the MVP award, we just have to dig a little deeper and unveil the true value that pitcher holds. The fact a starting pitcher plays once every five games does not negate the fact that he has nearly as much of an impact on the game as a full-time position player does. If a starting pitcher holds more value than a position player then he should be considered for the MVP award. Period.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

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Kimbrel’s Historic Season

Posted on August 24, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

If you follow me on twitter, know me personally, or have frequented the site here, you probably know by now how I feel about closers and the save stat. If you do not know then I will make it brief: I hate the save stat and the closer role is one of the most overrated roles in all of sports. Now, that is not to say that one-inning pitchers don’t have a place in the game, they do, but I would never vote one in for Cy Young, let alone MVP, and it would take a historic season for me to even consider one for Rookie of the Year.

I generally prefer outings like Tiger’s reliever Phil Coke had last night against the Rays where he pitched two full innings to earn an actual save in a 2-1 ballgame. Relievers rarely go more than an inning and the specialist reliever rarely goes more than a third of an inning. But, there are instances where all those things that I hate (short stints, saves) are outshadowed by historic relevance that leaves me in awe.

Atlanta Braves Craig Kimbrel will probably win the National League Rookie of the Year award and this may be one time I do not mind. Sure, Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman has a valid argument as to why he should win the award, and if I had a vote I would be torn between the two because Kimbrel’s season has been that good.

Kimbrel has appeared in 65 games and logged just 63.2 innings, or less than one inning per outing, something I hate. But what he has done in those 63.2 innings is nothing short of historic. He has already eclipsed 100 strikeouts and has a K/9 rate of 14.56 which stands as a record for rookies with at least 60 innings of work and ranks 6th all-time among any pitcher with at least 60 innings of work in a season and is one of only 8 pitchers to accomplish this feat. Billy Wagner is the only one to accomplish it more than once and he did it three times.

What is even more remarkable is that he also has a 1.70 ERA and 1.21 FIP and has allowed only one homerun. Only two other pitchers have had a K/9 greater than 14.0 and an ERA lower than Kimbrel’s 1.70. Eric Gagne is one, and he won a Cy Young award, and Billy Wagner is the other and finished 4th in Cy Young award voting.

Kimbrel’s career marks are even more incredible. In 84.1 innings he has a 15.26 K/9, 1.39 ERA, 1.29 FIP, and allowed only the one homerun. His fastball/slider combo are matched by few in the game and the short stints allow him to dial it up and go all out on every pitch.

There are very few relievers that can leave me in awe of their numbers and Kimbrel has done that. The fact that he has been worth 3.1 fWAR and is on pace for roughly 3.7 fWAR and the great Mariano Rivera has only surpassed that mark once in his career makes this season one to remember for Kimbrel.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

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Rookie of the Year and the World Series

Posted on February 21, 2011 by Michael Schwartze

The Rookie of the year award began in 1947, and for the first two seasons it was a Major League wide award. MLB did not award a player from each league until 1949. Last year the Rookie of the year from both the NL and AL played in the World Series. I decided to do a little research and make a list of all the Rookie of the years throughout baseball history that played in the World Series and their team’s result.

 League Wide Award

Year Player Team WS Result
1947 Jackie Robinson Brooklyn Dodgers Lost
1948 Alvin Dark Boston Braves Lost

 American League

Year Player Team WS Result
1951 Gil McDougald New York Yankees Won
1957 Tony Kubek New York Yankees Lost
1962 Tom Tresh New York Yankees Won
1975 Fred Lynn Boston Red Sox Lost
1981 Dave Righetti New York Yankees Lost
1988 Walt Weiss Oakland Athletics Lost
1991 Chuck Knoblauch Minnesota Twins Won
1996 Derek Jeter New York Yankees Won
2006 Justin Verlander Detroit Tigers Lost
2007 Dustin Pedoia Boston Red Sox Won
2008 Evan Longoria Tampa Bay Rays Lost
2010 Neftali Feliz Texas Rangers Lost

 National League

Year Player Team WS Result
1949 Don Newcombe Brooklyn Dodgers Lost
1951 Willie Mays New York Giants Lost
1952 Joe Black Brooklyn Dodgers Lost
1953 Jim Gilliam Brooklyn Dodgers Lost
1965 Jim Lefebrve Los Angeles Dodgers Won
1976 Pat Zachry (Tie for 1st) Cincinnati Reds Won
1981 Fernando Valenzuela Los Angeles Dodgers Won
1985 Vince Coleman St. Louis Cardinals Lost
2003 Dontrelle Willis Florida Marlins Won
2010 Buster Posey San Francisco Giants Won

 There have been 3 occasions on which the Rookie of the Year from each league faced off against each other in the World Series. We all remember the Buster Posey vs Neftali Feliz showdown in last year’s World Series, but we have to look back to 1981 for the next ROY matchup. Dave Righetti and the Yankees were defeated by Fernando Valenzuela and the Dodgers. The first ever showdown was in 1951. Some guy named Willie Mays and the then, New York Giants, were defeated by Gil McDougald and the Yankees.

 Which of this year’s top MLB prospects will splash onto the big league scene and earn the Rookie of the Year award? Will they help lead their team to a World Series? We will just have to wait and find out.

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My 2011 MLB Predicitons

Posted on February 17, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Troy Tulowitzki

I decided to dig a little deeper and lay out my predicitons from our inaugural post with the Win-Loss records and award winners that go up to five deep.

While I do not use fancy projection systems like PECOTA or Marcels, I do run my own numbers to try and garner a win total for a team based on my 2011 projections for that team’s players. By doing that, most teams end up with an extra win or two because I cannot predict injuries that ruin a player’s entire season and I have to trim those extra wins in order to make sure the total wins match the total losses (I usually end up with about 30 more wins than losses with my initial numbers). That is where some of the “human element” comes in to play.

With that, here are my projected standings and awards:

AL East
1. Red Sox (94-68)
2. Rays (90-72) (Wild Card)
3. Yankees (89-73)
4. Blue Jays (82-80)
5. Orioles (77-85)

AL Central
1. White Sox (87-75)
2. Twins (86-76)
3. Tigers (84-78)
4. Indians (70-92)
5. Royals (61-101)

AL West
1. Rangers (90-72)
2. Athletics (86-76)
3. Angels (78-84)
4. Mariners (65-97)

NL East
1. Phillies (94-68)
2. Braves (89-73) (Wild Card)
3. Marlins (79-83)
4. Mets (77-85)
5. Nationals (73-89)

NL Central
1. Cardinals (90-72)
2. Brewers (87-75)
3. Reds (87-75)
4. Cubs (80-82)
5. Astros (66-96)
6. Pirates (63-99)

NL West
1. Rockies (88-74)
2. Giants (86-76)
3. Dodgers (81-81)
4. Padres (81-81)
5. Diamondbacks (70-92)

World Series

Rockies over Red Sox in 7.

World Series MVP

Dexter Fowler

MVP
AL: Adrian Gonzalez, Evan Longoria, Nelson Cruz, Shin-Soo Choo, Miguel Cabrera

NL: Troy Tulowitzki, Chase Utley, Albert Pujols, Ryan Braun, Ryan Zimmerman

Cy Young
AL: Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez, Brett Anderson, David Price, Dan Haren

NL: Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee, Tim Lincecum, Mat Latos

Rookie of the Year
AL: Jeremy Hellickson, J.P. Arencibia, Hank Conger, Kyle Drabek, Jesus Montero

NL: Domonic Brown, Freddie Freeman, Aroldis Chapman, Brandon Belt, Kenley Jansen

Comback Player of the Year
AL: Grady Sizemore, Conor Jackson

NL: Carlos Beltran, Pablo Sandoval

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

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MLB Dirt Predictions

Posted on February 16, 2011 by Michael Schwartze

Welcome readers and this is MLB Dirt, your baseball headquarters for news, analysis, and everything baseball. In our inaugural article, we have posted our predictions for the upcoming Major League Baseball season.

You will find our predictions for each division, the playoffs, and who we think will win this year’s major awards in each league. This is the first step in the development and expansion of the site. Please tell your friends about MLB Dirt and be prepared to get dirty in baseball news.

For more MLB Dirt, make sure you follow us on Twitter @MLBdirt and “like us on Facebook. 

Without further ado, here are the 2011 Dirt Predictions:

 Division  Mitchell  MLB Reports  Schwartze
 AL East 1. Red Sox
2. Rays*
3. Yankees
4. Blue Jays
5. Orioles		 1. Rays
2. Red Sox*
3. Blue Jays
4. Yankees
5. Orioles		 1. Red Sox
2. Rays
3. Yankees
4. Orioles
5. Blue Jays
 AL Central 1. White Sox
2. Twins
3. Tigers
4. Indians
5. Royals		 1. White Sox
2. Tigers
3. Twins
4. Royals
5. Indians		 1. Twins
2. White Sox
3. Tigers
4. Indians
5. Royals
 AL West 1. Rangers
2. Athletics
3. Angels
4. Mariners		 1. Rangers
2. Athletics
3. Angels
4. Mariners		 1. Rangers
2. Athletics*
3. Mariners
4. Angels
 NL East 1. Phillies
2. Braves*
3. Marlins
4. Mets
5. Nationals		 1. Phillies
2. Braves
3. Nationals
4. Marlins
5. Mets		 1. Phillies
2. Braves*
3. Mets
4. Marlins
5. Nationals
 NL Central 1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Reds
4. Cubs
5. Astros
6. Pirates		 1. Reds
2. Cardinals*
3. Brewers
4. Cubs
5. Astros
6. Pirates		 1. Cardinals
2. Brewers
3. Reds
4. Cubs
5. Pirates
6. Astros
 NL West 1. Rockies
2. Giants
3. Dodgers
4. Padres
5. Diamondbacks		 1. Dodgers
2. Rockies
3. Giants
4. Padres
5. Diamondbacks		 1. Rockies
2. Dodgers
3. Giants
4. Diamondbacks
5. Padres

* Wild Card Winner

Awards:

 Award  Mitchell  MLB Reports  Schwartze
 AL Cy Young 1. Jon Lester
2. Felix Hernandez		 1. C.J. Wilson
2. J. Papelbon		 1. Jon Lester
2. Felix Hernandez
 AL MVP 1. Adrian Gonzalez
2. Evan Longoria		 1. Adam Dunn
2. Miguel Cabrera		 1. Evan Longoria
2. Adrian Gonzalez
 AL ROY 1. J. Hellickson
2. J.P. Arencibia		 1. J. Hellickson
2. Kyle Drabek		 1. J. Hellickson
2. Nick Weglarz
 AL Come Back 1. Grady Sizemore
2. Conor Jackson		 1. Brad Penny
2. Alex Gordon		 1. Josh Beckett
2. Grady Seizmore
 NL Cy Young 1. Roy Halladay
2. A. Wainwright		 1. Roy Halladay
2. Cliff Lee		 1. Cliff Lee
2. A. Wainwright
 NL MVP 1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Chase Utley		 1. Albert Pujols
2. Andre Ethier		 1. Hanley Ramirez
2. Albert Pujols
 NL ROY 1. Domonic Brown
2. Freddie Freeman		 1. Brandon Belt
2. Julio Teheran		 1. Aroldis Chapman
2. Mike Minor
 NL Come Back 1. Carlos Beltran
2. Pablo Sandoval		 1. Carlos Pena
2. Jesus Flores		 1. Javier Vasquez
2. Carlos Beltran

 

World Series

 Picks  Mitchell  MLB Reports  Schwartze
 AL Champ  Red Sox  Rays  Red Sox
 NL Champ  Rockies  Phillies  Phillies
 WS Champ  Rockies  Phillies  Red Sox

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