MLB Dirt

The Toronto Blue Jays have put together an exciting team and they have a ton of exciting prospects that are on their way up. Sadly, the excitement has not turned into a lot of winning since they are in the same division as the Red Sox, Yankees, and Rays. They currently sit at a meek 36-39 with a run differential of -2 but that does not mean the team lacks potential All-Stars.

The first choice is obvious: Jose Bautista. He is the best player in the game right now and leads the American League in fWAR (4.5), home runs (22), OBP (.470), SLUG (.654), wOBA (.474), wRC+ (206), and he ranks 5th in the league in AVG (.325). His 20.9% walk rate is 3% higher than the second place player and he has been an excellent base runner posting a +2.3 BSR. If the season ended today he might win the AL MVP award. He is an obvious choice for the game and my first starting out fielder.

After Bautista, though, it gets tough to decide if another Jay deserves a spot on the AL All-Star roster. There are a lot of good candidates but there is something that holds each one back.

Adam Lind ranks 5th among AL first basemen in fWAR (2.1) but has reached that total in 100 less plate appearances than the players ahead of him on the list. He is currently hitting .323/.369/.594 with a wOBA of .410 and a wRC+ of 162. But, he lacks the PAs and plays a position that has a lot of top-heavy talent. He may miss the cut.

Yunel Escobar has the same problem that Lind has and plays a position that is actually pretty deep in talent. He has a very solid 1.9 fWAR but that ranks 5th in the AL among shortstops. He is currently hitting .279/.353/.424 with a wOBA of .344 but, oddly, his defense is what is dropping his value as his UZR is at -1.9 for the season. His 10.3% walk rate easily leads all shortstops and his .353 OBP is also tops. All-Star teams usually carry three shortstops and I find it hard to see Escobar pass the top three guys. Like Lind he may barely miss the cut.

As far as the pitching staff goes there are two candidates for the All-Star team. The first is Ricky Romero who has a 2.98 ERA but a 3.75 FIP. Even though his ERA is below 3.00 it still ranks only 11th in the AL this year. He has career bests in K/9 (7.98) and BB/9 (3.16) so far but his 1.6 fWAR also sits low at 19th in the AL and just 2nd best on the team.

The staff leader in fWAR is none other than Brandon Morrow who, like Lind, missed time due to injury. He only has 61 innings pitched on the season but has 1.9 fWAR largely thanks to a ridiculous 10.62 K/9 and 2.50 FIP. But, his ERA is a sad 5.02 and that combined with the time away from the game will give him close to zero consideration for the All-Star game.

This is a team that is full of potential All-Stars but they all, except for super human Jose Bautista, seem to have that one thing that keeps them just shy of representing the Great White North in the Mid-Summer classic in Arizona. The game is still more than two weeks away and anything can happen but for now Jose Bautista is the only Jay making my roster.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis | Tagged: Adam Lind, All-Star Game, Brandon Morrow, Jose Bautista, Rays, Red Sox, Ricky Romero, Toronto Blue Jays, Yankees, Yunel Escobar | 5 Comments »