My 2012 Predictions: NL Central

Posted on March 29, 2012 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

I am continuing my 2012 prediction series by revealing my NL Central standings and adding a few positive and negative predictions for each team. In case you missed it, I have already revealed my AL East Predictions, AL Central Predictions, AL West Predictions, and NL East Predictions and we, as a staff, revealed some of our overall MLB predictions. Enjoy. (more…)

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One Fan’s Rooting Section

Posted on February 2, 2012 by William J. Tasker

Continuing a theme started in the last post I wrote on this site, any baseball writer who says he isn’t a fan is a liar. We wouldn’t be in this business if we weren’t fans of this great sport. Oh, there have been some truly terrific writers about baseball who haven’t set out to be baseball writers, but on the whole, you have to love this stuff to write about it every day.

Of course, if we have to consider ourselves, “journalists,” then that fan thing has to take a back seat to objectivity. I wrestle with this all the time. We writers who let our fan-selves get in the way too often jeopardize our credibility if we don’t hold it back. Joe Posnanski has drawn the line that he won’t root for teams as a journalist but he does root for players. Fair enough. If it’s good enough for the Great Pos, then it’s good enough for me. What follows is a list of players I will be rooting for this season. There is no rhyme or reason for the wish list. They are simply players that capture one writer’s imagination. Some aren’t great players and I know they will continue not to be great players. But what the heck, eh? A fan is a fan is a fan.

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A Different Kind of Season for Joel Hanrahan

Posted on July 27, 2011 by Michael Schwartze

Pirates closer Joel Hanrahan is now in his 5th season as a big league reliever. He entered the league with the Nationals in 2007 and seemed to get better each year. In 2008 he got the opportunity to begin closing some games in which he earned 9 saves in 13 opportunities. In 2009 he was still used as a late inning setup man with the occasional save opportunity here or there and then he was traded to the Pirates as a part of the Lastings Milledge – Nyjer Morgan deal in late June. For the remainder of the season with Pittsburgh, Hanrahan performed very well as a late inning set up men recording a 1.72 ERA with a K/9 of 10.6. In 2010, Hanrahan was very successful as a set-up man recording 18 holds and he began to see save opportunities at the end of the season earning 6 saves in 10 opportunities. That brings us to 2011.

This year has been Hanrahan’s best season but it has been a little different compared to past years. Up until 2011, he had been a high strikeout, high walk, and high ERA kind of pitcher but still managed to get the job done. Well this year it has almost been the opposite but he is still getting the job done and has been one of the top closers in the league.

In 2009 he had an ERA of 4.78, a 10.13 K/9 and a 4.78 BB/9. In 2010 he had a 3.62 ERA, a 12.92 K/9 and a 3.36 BB/9. This year, as the Pirates full time closer, he has a 1.18 ERA, 7.69 K/9, and a 1.58 BB/9. That is a huge change in each of those categories, especially in the strikeout department. Well why exactly has this happened?

Taking a look at Hanrahan’s contact percentages, batters are making a lot more contact off of him. In prior seasons, batters were making contact about 70% of the time off of Hanrahan. Well this year his contact percentage is 77.6%. Batters contact percentage off of Hanrahan on pitches outside the strike zone (O-Contact%) has also seen a huge increase. His O-Contact% was typically in the mid to upper 40’s but this year it is at 63.7%. That is a huge increase! This might mean he is not fooling batters as much when attempting to make them chase the ball out of the strike zone. This increase in O-Contact% isn’t necessarily a bad thing though as his groundball percentage has increased and his flyball percentage decreased greatly. In 2010 he had a GB% of 42.0% and it is now at 55.0%. His FB% in 2010 was 40.1% and is 26.7% this year. His infielders are definetly helping him too as he has a BABIP of .258, the lowest in his career.

Although this has been a different sort of season for Hanrahan he has still been very successful. His 1.5 WAR is tied for third amongst relievers and he has the 5th lowest ERA. His 29 saves are tied for 2nd in the league and he has only blown one save this year. He has been a very important piece for the first place Pirates and he must continue this success if they want to remain in the division hunt.

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Random Predictions – NL

Posted on March 30, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Continuing on from yesterday’s AL Predictions are my NL predictions. I honestly cannot wait to see the reactions when I tell everyone that…

Atlanta Braves – Nate McLouth is going to revert to 2009 form and go 20/20 with a .350 OBP. Craig Kimbrel will save 20+ games and strike out 100+ as part of the best relief squad in the Majors. Chipper Jones will hit .300 in his final season. Mike Minor will replace Brandon Beachy as the 5th starter by June.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Russell Branyan will set a career high by hitting 35 or more homeruns this season. That’s right! All he needs is playing time and I predict he will gain 3B eligibilty. Joe Saunders will have an ERA north of 5.00. David Hernandez will lead the team in saves with less than 20.

Chicago Cubs – Tyler Colvin will get 500+ plate appearances but will not hit more than 25 homers. There will be more “head case” headlines about Matt Garza than there will be about Carlos Zambrano who will be the better pitcher of the two this year.

Cincinnati Reds – 2010 was more Brandon Phillips norm going forward and he will continue a decline offensively to the tune of .260/.320/.420 at best. The starting rotation will be called overrated by September. Drew Stubbs will be more valuable when factoring ADP than B.J. Upton in fantasy. Jay Bruce will hit 30+ homers but lose defensive value and not be more valuable than he was last year according to fWAR. Aroldis Chapman will finish with less than 5 saves and an ERA above-4.00.

Colorado Rockies – Troy Tulowitzki will win the MVP and be worth close to 8.0 fWAR. Dexter Fowler will break out this year. Jose Lopez still will not hit and be a terrible defender and Ty Wigginton will club 20+ homers. Jason Hammel will finally match his performance with his FIP and post an ERA below-4.00.

Florida Marlins – Mike Stanton will hit 35 homeruns and be very humble about it. Anibal Sanchez will pitch 200+ innings of 3.25 or lower ERA and 175+ strikeouts. Omar Infante will hit closer to his career slash-line of .274/.319/.395 than his last two year’s .316/.359/.408. The 3B position will struggle to combine for a positive fWAR.

Houston Astros – Wilton Lopez will end up with double-digit saves. Brett Wallace will hit .285/.345/.450 and give the Astros hope for the future. The shortstop position will the weakest in the league offensively. Jordan Lyles will be up and be their best pitcher after the trade deadline.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Juan Uribe will set another career high in homers with 25 this season. Jonathan Broxton may lose the closer role but he will still strike out 90+ with an ERA below-3.00. Matt Kemp will be worth +5.0 fWAR or better. Left field will be a revolving door that will never stop and be lucky to produce at a higher level than replacement. A.J. Ellis is the best catcher on the roster but will see the least amount of time.

Milwaukee Brewers – Shaun Marcum will mail a thank you card to the Blue Jays for trading him out of the AL East and will post 200+ innings of 3.25 or lower ERA and 175+ strikeouts. Carlos Gomez and Nyjer Morgan will combine for a wRC of 85 or lower. Jonathan Lucroy and George Kottaras will combine to hit 20 homers.

New York Mets – Carlos Beltran will reach 500 PAs and hit .280/.370/.470 or better. Angel Pagan will again be worth more than 4.0 fWAR. Francisco Rodriguez will not meet his Games Finished clause wheter he finishes the year out with the Mets or not. The Mets will have a fire sale in July and post a better record in the 2nd half and play “spoiler” to postseason contenders.

Philadelphia Phillies – Ryan Howard continues his Cecil Fielder impersonation and hits worse than he did in 2010. Ben Francisco will hit 20 homers and steal 15 bases. Roy Halladay will post even better numbers than last year.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Andrew McCutchen will hit 20 homers and steal 40 bases. Joel Hanrahan will save 30 games and strike out 100+. James McDonald will be the only starting pitcher with more than 2.0 fWAR and he will have higher than 3.0 fWAR.

San Diego Padres – Tim Stauffer will log 175+ innings of sub-3.50 ERA and 125+ strikeouts. Brad Hawpe will lose his starting job by mid-June and struggle to hit above .250 with little-to-no power. Jason Bartlett will hit at least .285/.345/.425 and steal 20+ bases.

San Francisco Giants – Aubrey Huff will get off to a slow start and everyone will scream for Brandon Belt to get playing time. Which he will… in June, and contend for the Rookie of the Year Award by hitting close to .300 with 15+ homers. Jonathan Sanchez will be the best pitcher on the team.

St. Louis Cardinals – Colby Rasmus will hit 30+ homers and steal 15+ bases. Lance Berkman will bounce back to hit .275/.375/.475 with 20+ homers. Kyle McClellan will log 175+ innings of sub-4.00 ERA with 125+ strikeouts. Jason Motte will save 10+ games and record 70+ strikeouts.

Washington Nationals – Michael Morse will hit more homers than Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche. Livan Hernandez will post an ERA north of 5.00 and allow 225+ hits in less than 200 innings. Matt Stairs will hit a homerun for the Nats, his 12th different team.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

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NL/AL Most Improved Lineups

Posted on March 25, 2011 by Charlie Nehl

After off-season moves this past season, two teams come to the forefront, in my mind, on who became the most improved in the two different leagues.

(July 19, 2009 – Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images North America)

In the American League, the Baltimore Orioles made a meandering of changes in their lineup this off-season to try to support their young and talented pitching staff. The major off-season acquisitions included Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, and Vladimir Guerrero. All four of those players have the power to hit 20 home runs, maybe with the exception of Hardy. He did however hit over 20 in the ’07 and ’08 seasons. The only problem in going this route, you’re not planning for the future. None of these four players will be with the team for more than a couple of years at most.

The interesting aspect what these players bring is the protection that Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Luke Scott gain in the line up. Lee doesn’t have the same power he once had after his wrist injury, but is still a dangerous hitter. Reynolds will probably continue to strike out at an alarming rate, but will probably still hit 35+ home runs in hitter friendly Camden Yards. He also has to deal with the better pitching in the AL East compared to the much weaker NL West, which could be a problem. Junk ball hitting specialist, Guerrero should be a dangerous hitter in this line up as well. He’s thrived in the DH role with Texas last season, and I expect him to keep the same momentum going. If you figure in a healthy Brian Roberts at the top of the lineup, and a young Matt Wieters behind the plate, it could rival any team in the AL as one of the best lineups.

With the young pitching staff, the team is going to have to put up a lot of runs in order to help these young guys “take their lumps” while they gain more experience. Brian Matusz is poised to have a break out year, and Jeremy Guthrie could have a winning record with his normal ERA in the low fours or high threes. Between young pitchers Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and to an extent Brad Bergesen, with veteran Justin Duchscherer could make for an adaquete rotation with a very high ceiling. I’m not expecting a Cy Young winner to emerge from the group, but they could win a number of games with amount of runs the line up could mash in.

Potential Lineup:

Brian Roberts – 2B
Adam Jones – CF
Luke Scott – LF
Vladimir Gurrero – DH
Nick Markakis – RF
Derrek Lee – 1B
Mark Reynolds – 3B
Matt Wieters – C
J.J. Hardy – SS

It’s pretty hard to place all those power hitters in the lineup while trying to make the most sense. This will give coach Buck Showalter the flexibility to have a lot different lineup configurations depending on the pitching match up.  The only hitter on the team that hit over 20 home runs last season was Luke Scott. He should be poised to do the same, and drive in plenty of runs himself. This lineup might be one of the most balanced lineups I’ve ever seen as well. You have two switch hitters, five right handed hitters, and two left handed hitters. Fact of the matter is, they’re also in one of the best divisions in all of baseball. Between the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and even the Blue Jays, I just don’t foresee them making the playoffs, but they’re going to surprise a lot of people this season. Will they make it out of the cellar? There’s a really good possibility that occurs.

On the NL side of things, the Washington Nationals added some players that give slugger Ryan Zimmerman some extra protection that could even take him up to a next level (if there is one for him). The additions of Jayson Werth and Adam Laroche will add 40-50 home runs from those two batters alone. Werth of  course was the super-star contract acquisition this season, but it’s going to be hard for him to live up to those expectations. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fantastic player, and knew he was good with the Dodogers; he just needed that change to get regular playing time. He got that with the Phillies and got him a World Series ring in the process.

(August 5, 2009 – Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America)

Outfielder Michael Morse appears to have gotten a shot to be the everyday left fielder for the team to start the season. In only 266 ABs, he hit 15 home runs and batted in 41. Assuming enough at-bats for an everyday player through out the season, 30 home runs and 90 RBIs aren’t out of the question for him.

None of the options the team has for center field are all that attractive. I think Nyjer Morgan makes the most sense to me, since he can lead off, so I want to assume they’ll go that route. Last I read; however, Rick Ankiel has the inside track to securing the position, which I’m not sure that is the best option for the team. Without Morgan, they have no true lead off hitter. Roger Bernadina is also in the mix for OF time. Ian Desmond is more suited to be the second batter in the lineup behind Morgan.

Youngster Danny Espinosa, who has 15 home run power is slated to take over duties at 2nd base. Desmond should able to build on a pretty decent rookie campaign from last season. Hot shot catching prospect, Wilson Ramos, who was acquired in the Matt Capps trade with the Twins could start to figure in the lineup too with aging Pudge Rodriquez. It’s also possible that Jesus Flores could factor into the catching spot too, but there has been some interest with him going to Houston when Jason Castro was lost for the season.

Potential Lineup  (How I would construct it):

Nyjer Morgan – CF
Ian Desmond – SS
Ryan Zimmerman – 3B
Jayson Werth – RF
Michael Morse – LF
Adam LaRoche – 1B
Pudge Rodriguez / Wilson Ramos – C
Danny Espinosa – 2B
Pitchers Spot

The pitcher’s spot brings up a really good point: The Washington Nationals rotation and bullpen are a giant mess. Livan Hernandez is _NOT_who you want pitching for you opening day. With Steven Strasburg on the shelf all season, and Jordan Zimmerman having his own injuries last season, the team doesn’t have much to work with. The other three pitchers poised to make the rotation are Jason Marquis, John Lannan and Tom Gorzelanny. They will not be able to compete at all with the Phillies, but could give the Braves and Marlins a kind of “run for their money”. They’re a much better hitting team this season, by spending a lot of money, but with out pitching they don’t stand a chance.

Young closer Drew Storen has seemed to lost his spot at closer as well with a horrid spring with an ERA over 11. I saw last that the team has no official closer announced as of yet. We’ll see what happens there. Tyler Clippard could get some time shutting down games of Storen officially loses it.

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The Worst Player in the Majors Is…

Posted on March 14, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell


(AP Photo)

… Melky Cabrera. I find it rather hard to believe that any team would give a contract to Melky Cabrera after the season that he had with the Atlanta Braves last year which was the worst of any player in 2010. Well, the Kansas City Royals gave him a Major League deal worth $1.25M plus another 250K in incentives that will probably only be reached if they are plate appearance based and not actual performance based, especially if 2010 was an indication of his future value… 0r non-value… or negative-vlaue. You get the point, he was pretty awful in 2010 and there is little hope of a performance boost either.

Cabrera had the worst fWAR among all position players last year at -1.2. Right behind him were Carlos Lee at -0.8, Adam Lind at -0.3, and Cesar Izturis at -0.3. Those players at least had positive contributions in some sort of fashion or were unlucky. Lee had a .238 BABIP but at least contributed 24 homers. Lind hit 23 homers, and Izturis was +5.1 UZR at shortstop. Cabrera offered little to nothing to the Braves all season.

On top of posting the worst fWAR there was nothing “fluky” or unlucky that I could point out to help him out. In fact, I can point out that batting 8th in the National League helped him get 11 intentional walks that improved his walk rates and On-Base Percentage. Without those free passes his walk rate would’ve been 6.1% and not 8.3%. His BABIP was .288, right in line with his career .290 BABIP and he switched to the easier league.

His horrible accomplishments included, but were not limited to, a wOBA of .294 which was the 9th worst in the Majors, his -15.9 UZR was the 4th worst, Nyjer Morgan was the only outfielder with a worse wRC+ and wOBA than Melky, and his RAR was by far the worst in the Majors at -11.9 and only 5 others even had a RAR in the negatives with Carlos Lee being second worst at -7.3 and no one else was worse than -2.6. He managed to make contact at high rates but to no avail.

There isn’t much saving Melky’s Major League career other than the Royals fetish for horrible offensive players and maybe his baserunning. Outside of that he offers zero-to-negative value at every other aspect of the game and there are not a lot of players that offer that little to teams and have Major League contracts.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

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What Does Jonny Gomes Have In Common With Some of the Fastest Players in the League?

Posted on March 13, 2011 by Michael Schwartze

 

As all of the MLBdirt readers should be aware, we are giving away an Andrew McCutchen 2011 Topps autographed baseball card to a lucky follower of the twitter page. As I examined the card, the back had an interesting stat. It ranked the top ten at-bats per grounded into double play leaders in the National League for 2010. McCutchen ranked 6th on the list after averaging 95.0 at bats per GIDP. Here is the list of the top 10 players:

Player ABs/GIDP
1. Nyjer Morgan 245.2
2. Rickie Weeks 130.2
3. Jonny Gomes 127.8
4. Chase Utley 106.3
5. Shane Victorino 97.8
6. Andrew McCutchen 95.0
7. Colby Rasmus 92.8
8. Michael Bourn 89.2
9. Dexter Fowler 87.8
10. Drew Stubbs 85.7

 

For one thing, Nyjer Morgan’s 245.2 at-bats per GIDP is pretty astonishing. He grounded into a double play only twice last year! The other aspect of these rankings that stood out to me was that Jonny Gomes ranked third!

Player Speed* Ht./Wt. Position
Nyjer Morgan 6.9 6’0”/175lb CF
Rickie Weeks 5.1 5’10”/215lb 2B
Jonny Gomes 4.5 6’1”/225lb LF
Chase Utley 5.2 6’1”/190lb 2B
Shane Victorino 7.6 5’9”/190lb CF
Andrew McCutchen 6.5 5’10”/175lb CF
Colby Rasmus 5.1 6’2”/200lb CF
Michael Bourn 7.8 5’11”/180lb CF
Dexter Fowler 6.7 6’4”/190lb CF
Drew Stubbs 7.7 6’4”/205lb CF

*The speed statistic: Fangraphs 4 component Speed Score Statistic

As we look at the list, almost every player is a lean, fast, middle infielder or center fielder. But then there is Jonny Gomes… Gomes is not known for his speed at all, and based on the ABs/GIDP leaders; one would assume a large majority of the players avoided double plays by beating out the play at first. Well with Jonny Gomes, that isn’t necessarily the case so jut how he does he do it?

Obviously, in order to ground into a double play you have to hit the ball on the ground.  Gomes doesn’t hit the ball on the ground to often as he had the second lowest GB% in the league. His 29.0 GB% ranked 2nd behind Aramis Ramirez. His line drive and fly ball percentage were amongst the best in the league.  

Fastballs typically generate the least amount of groundballs when hit. Gomes did a great job of hitting fastballs which could explain the low GB%. Looking at Gomes fastball percentage under pitch types, Gomes was amongst the best in the league against fastballs. He ranked 5th in the league.

These stats weren’t rare for 2010 as Gomes rarely gounds into double plays throughout his career. It is valuable asset to have a player that does not ground in to double plays and Gomes certainly provides that for the Reds.

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