Baseball Notes for January 21, 2013

Posted on January 21, 2013 by Andrew Martin

HartGamel

With just three weeks until pitchers and catchers start reporting to spring training locations, the baseball offseason is winding down, but it’s not ending with a whimper. This has been one of the more eventful offseasons in recent memory, with constant activity, surprises, and even some quality free agents like Kyle Lohse and Michael Bourn still available at this late date.

If the 2013 season can be half as eventful as this winter has been, fans should be in for quite a treat.

Unfortunately, this past week ended with some truly sad news about two baseball legends; considerably darkening this installment of notes. (more…)

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A Fan of the Napoli Contract with the Red Sox

Posted on December 3, 2012 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Napoli

The Boston Red Sox made the first big splash of the Winter Meetings by signing free agent slugger Mike Napoli to a three-year deal worth $39M. This signing fills the Red Sox’s need at first base and would allow them to make trades and maximize Napoli’s value if they give him time behind the plate.

Napoli brings even more power to the Red Sox. His .257 ISO since 2008 ranks 6th in all of baseball since 2008, his first of five consecutive 20+ homerun seasons, behind only Giancarlo Stanton, Albert Pujols, Jose Bautista, Russell Branyan, and Ryan Howard. If you make the requirement over that time a minimum of 2000 plate appearances then Napoli ranks fourth in ISO. (more…)

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It’s Tough Being A Met Fan In Yankee Town

Posted on November 8, 2012 by Daniel Marino

Photo By: John Dunn for The New York Times

As another hot stove season begins, Met fans such as myself, will once again look across town at the Bronx Bombers with envy.  It will be another off season where we Met fans watch our team sit on the sidelines while the Yankees sign the free agents they need to compete for another title.  Of course, the Mets are on a self-imposed budget because of the Madoff situation that emptied Fred Wilpon’s wallet.  But Met fans have to wonder how long they will play second fiddle to the Yankees.  The last time our Mets owned New York was 1988.  Since then, it has been almost exclusively the Big Yankee Apple.  And unfortunately, Yankee fans remind us Met fans of this every day of every year.

The difference in management styles between the two organizations was evident last year with the Jose Reyes debacle.  The Yankees choose to keep their cornerstone players in pinstripes.  When Derek Jeter’s contract was nearing an end while in the middle of his career, the Yankees signed him to a long term contract.  When Jose Reyes contract expired after least season, the Mets let him walk without even making an offer.   Of course, Jose Reyes is no Derek Jeter, but you get the point. (more…)

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Rangers Upgrade Defense and Potentially Offense with Geovany Soto

Posted on July 31, 2012 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

The Texas Rangers have acquired former All-Star and Rookie of the Year catcher Geovany Soto in exchange for right-handed pitching prospect Jacob Brigham in a deal that makes a lot of sense for the Rangers while the Cubs get a bit of salary relief and a serviceable arm in return. (more…)

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Best Pure Hitters In Baseball

Posted on November 26, 2011 by William J. Tasker

This is all Jonathan Mitchell’s fault. His fabulous post on the nastiest pitches in baseball has now spawned not just one post from the Fan, but now two. The exercise in question is looking at Fangraphs‘ data for pitch value as a perimeter for judging the best pitchers overall for 2011 and for the past three years. Today, we’re going to look at the same pitch values, but this time from a batting perspective. The idea is this: If you add up the pitch value scores for each batter with a minimum number of plate appearances and then sort the total, it should give you a list of the best pure hitters in baseball. It’s a different approach than WAR or wOBA or even OPS+ and it may not mean anything. But it’s fun, so anything fun is worth doing, right?

Here’s how these numbers were accumulated: This author went to Fangraphs and then to their Leaders link. Once at the leaders page, the Pitch Value tab was clicked. On that page, using the wonderful tools available to us, two criteria were plugged in. In the first one, we stayed with 2011 and made 400  the minimum plate appearances. Then Fangraphs’ generous Export Data link was clicked which provided a spreadsheet for our use here. A new set of criteria was then added for the past three years (2009 – 2011) with a minimum of 1000 plate appearances. And that data was exported as well.

Once the spreadsheets were on this author’s laptop, in a new column a sum function was used to get a total of all the pitch types to give us a total value above average. What these numbers mean is a calculation by Fangraphs of how many runs above average each hitter was against different pitch types. There are some weird numbers in there. For example, Maicir Izturis was the second best in baseball in 2011 against the slider but couldn’t hit just about anything else. Alfonso Soriano was among the top in hitting a fastball but gave up all those runs against the slider. Our top hitters in general hit everything well or hit at least a few pitches well enough to compile big numbers.

Without further ado, here are the top ten pure hitters in baseball for 2011 for combined runs above average:

(more…)

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Trading Napoli Cost the Angels the Division

Posted on September 18, 2011 by William J. Tasker

Catching when your manager was a former catcher himself can’t be easy. We’ve all seen the tensions in New York with the demotion of Jorge Posada under Joe Girardi’s tenure there as manager. Apparently the same was going on for the Angels as Mike Napoli couldn’t find his way into Mike Scioscia’s every day line up. It was no surprise then that the Angels traded Napoli in that gosh awful Vernon Wells trade to Toronto. The Blue Jays then sent Napoli to the Rangers, the Angels’ chief rival in the American League West. The move has done more to cost the Angels 2011′s division chances more than any other single transaction this year.

We won’t discuss how bad Vernon Wells has played this season for the Angels. Instead we’ll focus on Napoli’s worth compared to the players in the Angels’ line up that have replaced Napoli’s plate appearances. You can’t add Jeff Mathis to the equation either as Mathis would have gotten into Scioscia’s line up whether Napoli was there or not. Scioscia loves his Jeff Mathis because of that catcher’s defense. Never mind that Mathis is one of the worst offensive players in baseball. We’ve yet to see a good defensive metric for catchers, so we’ll have to take Scioscia’s word for the fact that Mathis adds enough value behind the plate to make up for his lack of worth beside it.

And so we’ll have to compare Mike Napoli‘s worth for the Rangers as a DH, part-time catcher /part-time first baseman /part-time DH compared to what the Angels have produced from Hank Conger, Russell Branyan, Bobby Abreu and others. Well…there is no comparison. Mike Napoli has compiled an fWAR of 5.2 this season. Branyan yielded no value. Conger’s WAR is 0.4. Abreu’s total WAR in the field and mostly as the DH is 1.4. So basically, you have 1.8 worth of WAR that replaced Napoli’s 5.2.

But it goes beyond that. That 5.2 of fWAR that Napoli has compiled could have been compiled for the Angels. Napoli has fifty extra base hits for the Rangers including 26 homers. Inject those numbers on a tepid Angels’ offense and you have some runs scored for that wonderful pitching staff the Angels possess. Conger and Abreu have thirteen homers between them. Branyan hit four more. So doing some lazy math, the Angels trading Napoli probably cost them some six or seven wins this season. And yes, the Angels are 4.5 games back of the Rangers for the division with two weeks to play.

Heck, a miracle could happen and the Angels could win all their games and the Rangers could lose all theirs making the Angels the champs, but that doesn’t seem likely, does it? There are lots of wonderful things you can say about Mike Scioscia as a manager. His former coaches are winning all over baseball. But in this case, Scioscia signed off on sending Mike Napoli out of town and darned if that gunslinger didn’t end up in the middle of the Rangers’ line up. The Angels shot themselves in the foot on this one.

P.S. While researching this piece, another take on the same topic was written by Jack Moore over at Fangraphs. The conclusions are the same. Trading Mike Napoli probably cost the Angels the AL West.

-William J. Tasker, a/k/a The Flagrant Fan, a knowledgeable and passionate baseball fan that can be followed on twitter and found writing daily at his blog

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Random Predictions – AL

Posted on March 29, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Who doesn’t love predictions? I know I do. I love mocking people for their outrageous claims but even more, I love making outrageous claims… and ending up right about them. Will my predictions be right? Only time will tell, but they do factor into my drafting and reaching of fantasy players. Some predictions will be bolder than others, especially my prediction in tomorrow’s post that says… well, you’ll have to wait for that one.

Here is my list of players that I predict bold outcomes for:

Baltimore Orioles – Matt Wieters will hit better than .280/.350/.450 with 20 homers. Adam Jones will go 25/10 or better. Mark Reynolds will hit below .200 again. Brian Matusz will pitch 210+ innings of sub-3.50 ERA, with 175+ strikeouts.

Boston Red Sox – Adrian Gonzalez will set career highs in Home Runs, RBI, runs, AVG/OBP/SLG, and win the MVP. Carl Crawford will be even better offensive season than he had in 2010. Daniel Bard will save 15 or more games. Daisuke Matsuzaka will not be starting games for the Red Sox in by August.

Chicago White Sox – Big league pitchers will stop throwing strikes to Alexei Ramirez and he will still swing and post an OBP that barely cracks .300. Adam Dunn will set a career high in home runs. Jake Peavy will make 25 or more starts and post an ERA below 3.75 with a K/9 over 8.0.

Cleveland Indians – Carlos Santana will be the best offensive catcher in the majors, hitting .290/.390/.470 or better with more than 20 homers. Shin-Soo Choo will be a top 5 MVP candidate. No other position player will be worth 3.0 fWAR or more and Orlando Cabrera will be off the team by the end of July.

Detroit Tigers – Ramon Santiago will be more valuable than Jhonny Peralta. Austin Jackson will take a minor step back before breaking out in 2012 and will be outperformed offensively by Casper Wells. Ryan Raburn will do like everyone else is predicting and break out this year. Detroit pitchers will be infuriated with the defense on the right-side of the field.

Los Angeles Angels – Vernon Wells will revert back to his 2009 form when he hit .260/.311/.400. Peter Bourjos is currently owned in 3.3% of ESPN leagues and will be owned in over 70% of fantasy leagues by mid-year, finishing with 40+ steals and 10+ homers. Dan Haren will be the best pitcher on the team.

Kansas City Royals – Melky Cabrera will again contend for the worst player in the Majors award. Alex Gordon will hit 25+ homers and post an OBP above .350. No starting pitcher will be worth 2.5 fWAR or higher. Tim Collins will have 75+ strikeouts out of the pen with a sub-3 ERA.

Minnesota Twins – Nick Blackburn will again post a +5 ERA but still start 25+ games. Alexi Casilla will struggle to post a positive fWAR. Delmon Young will break the 3.0 fWAR barrier, improving on last year’s performance. Jim Thome will again hit 25 homers and we will wonder why, again, he did not get 400+ plate appearances.

New York Yankees – Derek Jeter will have a bounce back season and hit at least .295/.365/.435 with 15 homers. Freddy Garcia will post a +5 ERA and not make it to 25 starts. Andruw Jones will hit 20+ homers and be worth 2.5 fWAR or higher. Jorge Posada will hit 15 or less homers and be worth 2.0 fWAR or less.

Seattle Mariners – I’m tired of seeing everyone predict Ichiro to bottom out this year. Ichiro will reach 200 hits, hit ovr .320 with 10+ homers and 40+ stolen bases. Miguel Olivo will fail to reach double-digit homers for the first time since 2005. Michael Pineda will be the 2nd most valuable starting pitcher. Brandon League will save 20+ games.

Tampa Bay Rays – Ben Zobrist will bounce back. Sean Rodriguez will gain shortstop eligibility and be a top 10 shortstop with at least 15 homers and 15 steals. Manny Ramirez hits .300/.400/.500 with 20+ homers. Dan Johnson will struggle to reach 400 PAs and the Rays will wish they signed Russell Branyan (his bold prediction tomorrow). Jeremy Hellickson will win 15 games with a sub-3.50 ERA and a K/BB of 4.0 or better. No pitcher will have 20 saves. It will be a true committee. For more of my Rays predictions click here.

Texas Rangers - Mike Napoli will retain catcher eligibility for next year and hit 30+ homers this year. Nelson Cruz will finish 3rd in MVP voting and hit at least .300/.370/.570 with 35+ homers with 25+ stolen bases and 10+ UZR. Elvis Andrus will hit 1 homer and fall outside the top-10 among fantasy shortstops. Derek Holland will win 12+ games and strike out 150+ with an ERA sub-4.00.

Toronto Blue Jays – The Jays 4th and 5th rotation spots will combine for an ERA over 5.00. Travis Snider will hit 25+ homers and post a +3.0 fWAR. Brett Cecil will be the best pitcher on the team. Aaron Hill will hit 30 homers.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

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2011 AL West Preview

Posted on March 27, 2011 by mikemcginnis

1. Texas Rangers

The Good: The Rangers are a young talented team that has emphasized pitching over offense and this group has not hit the ceiling yet. They may have one of the best offenses in the game with MVP Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz (a MVP caliber player), Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus and having 3 guys to play all 8 positions and DH with David Murphy, Mike Napoli and Mr. Ranger Michael Young. Adding Adrian Beltre was a smart move because he helps improve a shoddy Rangers defense and will benefit greatly from hitting in Texas with this lineup. The Rangers have talent on the mound as well with CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Darren O’Day and Neftali Feliz.

The Bad: How does this team fare without Cliff Lee? Granted, Lee was average in the regular season with the Rangers but, he will be sorely missed. Asking to have CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis  replicate 2010, something they have never done before that, while also anchoring the rotation is the biggest key to the Rangers season. If this duo falters the Rangers are not winning this division. The bullpen has talent and plenty of nice numbers but, it needs to show more poise as they were occasionally hit up in big spots last season.

What to Look For: The balance of playing time and productivity of the Napoli-Murphy-Young trio will be interesting to watch. If RHP Tanner Scheppers and OF Engel Beltre continue to shine in the minors they could get a call up. Is Brandon Webb OK? Is he still the best sinker ball pitcher in the game? That is something to watch. Also, the learning curves of Tommy Hunter, Matt Harrison and most importantly, Derek Holland will be critical to the Rangers success.

Projection: While maybe a tick below last year’s bunch the Rangers are plenty good and could be even better. The pitching has to fall into place, like any team. It would be a wise choice not to bet against this bunch.

89-73 (1st Place)

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Good: The Angels can go toe to toe with anyone with starting pitching. Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro are a pretty safe quartet to keep you in games. Although it had some problems last year the bullpen has promise too considering it added Hisanori Takahashi and Scott Downs to go along with Fernando Rodney and Kevin Jepsen.

The Bad: The Angels were embarrassed in free agency this past winter and had to take on the overly bloated Vernon Wells contract. The Halos have major question marks with C Jeff Mathis and 3B Maicer Izturis. Both guys are usually bench guys with little power and are being forced into everyday roles. While it is good that the Angels are giving kids 1B Mark Trumbo and CF Peter Burjos shots at the big leagues they also need these kids to produce right away which maybe too much to ask. The Halos can only hope and wonder when 1B Kendry Morales can come back and contribute after ankle surgery. Morales is the most vital cog to the Angels offense.

What to Watch For: The Angels need top prospect C Hank Conger to make the break through to the Show sooner rather than later. The same can be said for OF Mike Trout. The outfield trio of Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu gets another year older with the same measure of offensive expectation to produce. Can they all still do it? Can Erick Aybar replicate his 2009 season or is the player we all saw last year? The bullpen while upgraded, has major issues.

Projection: Age, bullpen problems and consistent offense, not something you are used to hearing with a Mike Scioscia team. The Angels have plenty of questions but, they also have plenty of starting pitching and a good manager. If the Rangers falter don’t be too surprised to see the Angels somehow in the mix to take the AL West flag.

86-76 (2nd Place)

3. Oakland A’s

The Good: The A’s have one of the  best starting rotations in the AL when all healthy. Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez can confound and hold down offenses most nights. The great thing about the staff is there aren’t all the same type of pitcher each one is different and has a different wrinkle throwing offenses off.  Adding OF’s David DeJesus, Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui was a major boost to a punchless offense. The A’s also have a very good bullpen as well with Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes, Mike Wuertz, Brad Ziegler and closer Andrew Bailey.

The Bad: The A’s offense got off the hook in 2010 because the Mariners offense was so historically bad. This team needs home runs desperately because it was powerless in 2010. The A’s have to hope the additions of Matsui, Willingham and DeJesus pay off. Also, having OF prospects Chris Carter and Michael Taylor break through to the MLB Level full time would help too.

What to Look For: If the A’s stay healthy and pitch to their potential and possibly get Rich Harden healthy throwing strikes out of the bullpen then look out, this team could win the division their pitching is that good.

Projection: A down year for the AL West means the time is ripe for the A’s to strike. This is a good team that just needs more runs to be scored. Billy Beane did a solid job upgrading this team and while they are picked here at 3rd place I think if Texas loses this division it’s more likely because the A’s win it not the Angels.

85-77 (3rd Place)

The Good: A very limited selection here. The Mariners do have the reigning CY Young Award winner who is soon to be 25 in Felix Hernandez. The Marniers also have a future Hall of Famer in Ichiro Suzuki who is good for a .310 plus batting average, 30 plus steals, 200 hundred plus hits and a Gold Glove in rightfield. The Mariners boast a pretty good defensive team as well.

The Bad: The offense was so bad last year it was epically and historically atrocious. Scary thing is the only thing the Mariners did was add Jack Cust to the everyday lineup which means a lot more of unneeded strikeouts but, some much need walks and homeruns. The Mariners desperately need 2009 years from Franklin Gutierrez and Chone Figgins not the bad 2010 years they had. The bullpen had its problems last year as well. You can add David Aardsma as a guy needed to have a year like he did in 2009 not last year. Jason Vargas and Doug Fister were OK for this rotation in 2010. It would be nice to see Erik Bedard just get on the mound in 2011 doing his Carl Pavano Yankees impression for the Mariners. This staff doesn’t have a real compliment to Felix Hernandez which is a problem.

What to Look For: The Mariners desperately need 1B Justin Smoak and LF Michael Saunders to figure it out and impact the everyday lineup immediately if this team has any expectation to be decent. You better add prospects LHP Mauricio Robles, RHP Michael Pineda and 2B Dustin Ackley to that list as well. That’s a lot of things that have to happen for things to be good this year in Seattle.

Projection: The offense couldn’t be much worse than it was in 2010 could it? Or could it be?  This is an odd year and the book says the Mariners will be 85 plus win team if you follow their past 5 years. I don’t know how they will pull that off this year but, then again no else saw them being good in 2007 and 2009 either. I don’t forsee them being a .500 or better team this year. But, then again I have been wrong many times before.

65-97 (4th Place)

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2011 Fantasy Rankings – Catchers

Posted on February 28, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Carlos Santana

When it comes to catchers the concern for me is when to take them. Do you take the top catcher on your board early? Do you join the catcher-run when it starts? All tough situations that you can ponder but really cannot answer until the opportunity stares you down. I believe there is decent depth at catcher this year, especially if you are in a 10-team mixed league but be warned, there are few that can help in more than 3-4 categories.

With that, here are my rankings for catcher:

Rank Player Tier
1 Joe Mauer 1
2 Carlos Santana 1
3 Buster Posey 1
4 Brian McCann 1
5 Victor Martinez 1
6 Mike Napoli 2
7 Geovanny Soto 2
8 Miguel Montero 2
9 Matt Wieters 2
10 Kurt Suzuki 3
11 Jorge Posada 3
12 Chris Iannetta 3
13 Yadier Molina 4
14 J.P. Arencibia 4
15 Carlos Ruiz 4
16 John Buck 4
17 John Jaso 4
18 Jarrod Saltalamacchia 4
19 Ryan Doumit 4
20 Hank Conger 5
21 Chris Snyder 5
22 A.J. Pierzynski 5
23 Alex Avila 5
24 Russell Martin 5
25 Jesus Montero 5
26 Ramon Hernandez 5
27 Nick Hundley 5
28 Josh Thole 5
29 Wilson Ramos 5
30 Jonathan Lucroy 5
31 Tyler Flowers 6
32 Miguel Olivo 6
33 Jason Castro 6
34 Ryan Hanigan 6
35 Yorvit Torrealba 6

 

Three I’d Reach For Reason
Carlos Santana With all due respect to Mauer, Santana could be the #1 catcher by the end of the season. His power and On-Base Skills are huge, especially my main league.
Mike Napoli Love the park, love the power, love the lineup, love the potential.
Chris Iannetta He will probably hit below .250 but he walks and has power. Oh, and he plays in Colorado and should finally get the bulk of at-bats at catcher. Career: 13.1% BB rate and HR every 22 at-bats.

 

Three I’ll Let Pass Reason
Victor Martinez I would just rather wait for Napoli than reach for Martinez once the catcher run starts.
Jorge Posada The hit tool is fading as is his health. Plus Yankee fans love to draft him. They can have him.
Miguel Olivo Poor on-base skills, horrible park. I’ll pass completely on him.

 

Top 3 Rookie C Reason
J.P. Arencibia Could hit 25+ homers this year.
Hank Conger His bat can play now, his glove needs work. Should get bulk of at-bats with Angels.
Jesus Montero Posada and Russell Martin are the only things holding him back. He should get at-bats at catcher and DH by May.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

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2011 Fantasy Rankings – Firstbasemen

Posted on February 26, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Albert Pujols

As I was reading through some of my favorite blogs today I came across a great bit by Jess Coleman at Seamheads.com about Major Leaguers born in August. The article showed that the Majors far and away have more players born in August than any other month, especially among American born players. This made me sad because, well, I was born in August and I missed my calling. Who would’ve known my birth month would’ve been my ticket to the Majors? I kid. But since I never made it, or even tried to make it, I resort to playing softball with my buddies and fantasy baseball, and I do them shamelessly!

I only play in keeper leagues and I love dynasty leagues. My favorite league is my Franchise Fantasy Baseball League. For a deeper rundown check my boy Charlie Nehl’s post about it here. Basically we took a real team in the beginning with their current year’s contract and minor league system and assigned an allotted amount of years to players. The rest became free agents and were open for bidding. We have $210M salary caps and deep rosters that in includes minor leagues and minor league drafts. This is by far my favorite league I have ever done and I base all my rankings off this league’s scoring. Our offensive stats are AVG, OPS, HR, SB, R, and RBI and we start one each at C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MIF, CIF, and 4 in OF, and 2 UT.  Also, my rankings at a position do not include versatility. This is where I rank players if I were to play them at the listed position only.

With that, here are my rankings:

 Rank  Player  Tier
 1  Albert Pujols  1
 2  Adrian Gonzalez  2
 3  Miguel Cabrera  2
 4  Joey Votto  2
 5  Prince Fielder  3
 6  Mark Teixeira  3
 7  Ryan Howard  3
 8  Kevin Youkilis  3
 9  Adam Dunn  4
 10  Justin Morneau  4
 11  Kendry Morales  4
 12  Buster Posey  4
 13  Billy Butler  4
 14  Paul Konerko  4
 15  Victor Martinez  4 
 16  Aubrey Huff  5 
 17  Ben Zobrist  5 
 18  Carlos Pena  5
 19  Mike Napoli  5 
 20  Derek Lee  5 
 21  Adam Lind  5
 22  Adam LaRoche  5
 23  Gabby Sanchez  5
 24  Russell Branyan  5
 25  Carlos Lee  5
 26  Lance Berkman  5
 27  Pablo Sandoval  5
 28  Luke Scott  6
 29  Ike Davis  6
 30  James Loney  6
 31  Justin Smoak  6
 32  Howie Kendrick  6
 33  Freddie Freeman  6
 34  Dan Johnson  6
 35  Michael Cuddyer  6

 

Three I’d Reach For  Reason
Adrian Gonzalez His move out of Petco and into Fenway I feel equates to .300/.400/.575 with 40 bombs, 100 runs, 100 RBI.
Mike Napoli Love the park, love the power, love the lineup, love the potential.
Russell Branyan Always loved the power. Mark it down, if he gets 500 at-bats he will hit 35+ homeruns, but a big if.

  

Three I’ll Let Pass  Reason
 Ryan Howard ISO that has dropped 5 years in a row and BB% that has dropped 4 years in a row.
 Aubrey Huff 34 years old and set too many career highs in age 33 season for me to expect a duplicate.
 Carlos Lee Dwindling power, can’t run anymore, and does not get on base enough. Aging poorly.

 

Top 3 Rookie 1B Reason
 Freddie Freeman Hit .319/.378/.518 as a 20 yr  old in AAA. 1B job is his in ATL.
 Eric Hosmer My #4 prospect in baseball is going to hit and hit and hit.
 Brandon Belt No one doubts his hitting tool but Huff blocks him at 1B. Could get PT in OF.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

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