Which Fantasy Players to Trade Away…And to Trade For

Heyward

Draft Them Then Trade Them – These players start out quickly, then slow down during the season.  These are the players to “sell high”. (more…)

NL Central Players To Watch

BillyH

Dan Marino continues his trek through each division in the major leagues and giving you one player he thinks is the: Rookie to Watch, Breakthrough Player, The Party’s Over, Non-Roster Invitee Most Likely to Stick, and Just Not Seeing it.

Now, in part four of six, he brings you the National League Central:

Part 1: AL East Players to Watch.

Part 2: NL East Players to Watch.

Part 3: AL Central Players to Watch.

Chicago Cubs (more…)

Ryan Dempster Traded to the Braves for Randall Delgado

The Atlanta Braves have reportedly landed starting pitcher Ryan Dempster from the Chicago Cubs in exchange for right-handed pitcher Randall Delgado and the Cubs will be paying for some, if not all, of Dempster’s contract. The Braves, looking to win now, give up a lot for a two month upgrade. (more…)

Time for the Yankees to Check in on the Starting Pitching Market

It seems like every year the Yankees are in the market for starting pitching at the trade deadline. A few days ago, I would not have thought New York would be looking for pitching at the deadline. C.C Sabathia has been his usual self (3.45 ERA), leading the front of the rotation. Phil Hughes (4.48 ERA), while not the best, has been good enough to stick at the back of the rotation. Hiroki Kuroda has proved to be a great offseason addition as he has put together a 3.40 ERA. His at 4.22 which suggests some decline but he has still pitched well. Andy Pettitte has been a great addition as he has a 3.29 ERA, 3.58 FIP, and an 8.56 K/9. Ivan Nova has also been solid this year with a 4.25 ERA and a 4.46 FIP.

The starting pitching as a whole has not been terrific but they’ve been good and the offense has given them the run support. New York’s starters have a 6.7 WAR which ranks 12th in baseball and 5th in the American League. They have a 4.02 ERA and a 4.12 FIP which both rank right around the middle of the league. Yes there is room for improvement in the rotation but it has not been a huge need and there should be no desperation forNew York to look at staring pitching upgrades. Well after today, the Yankees may have to start looking into trading for some starting pitching.

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2012 Chicago Cubs Outlook: Starting Pitching

In my first installment of seven where I’m going to look at the outlook of the Cubs 2012 season. I’ll examine the options the Cubs have for their starting rotation

Key Departures

Carlos Zambrano: Good riddance. He was a cancer on the team and major distraction. Anything they would get in return for him, Chris Volstad in this case, makes me view this as a positive deal for the Cubs.

Andrew Cashner: I’ve been vocal about liking this kid, and I still like the kid a lot, but when you can single-handily flip him into Anthony Rizzo you have to take that opportunity. I like Cashner pitching in San Diego.

Realistic Rotation Options

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Epstein Should Trade for Crawford

Everybody has a plan for Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs. Some of the better ones involve filling the front office and almost all of them involve trading Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano.

There is an overwhelming feeling that Epstein will almost forego the 2012 season to perform a minor rebuilding effort and take a shot at 2013 and beyond. If that happens, Cubs fans can kiss goodbye to Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, and possibly Marlon Byrd while bidding a fond farewell to the aforementioned Zambrano and Soriano.

I, for one, think Epstein can put a solid team out there in 2012 while doing a minor rebuilding effort at the same time and I think his first move should be to acquire Carl Crawford from the Boston Red Sox. That’s right, the same Carl Crawford that is due $122M over the next six seasons.

Acquiring Crawford from the Red Sox would fill two potential agendas at the same time. The first would be the acquisition of a top talent that can help now and in the near future. The second would be the trading of Alfonso Soriano.

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Why I Hate Pitcher Win-Loss Records

After looking through the box scores from last night’s game I couldn’t help but resurface the feelings I have for wins and losses for a pitcher. I hate the win-loss stat. I really do. It rarely, if ever, tells the true story of how a pitcher has performed in a given year and it can be very misleading in a career, just ask Bert Blylevan. Here is a table of 12 pitchers who have out-performed their current win-loss record.

   ERA  FIP  K/9  BB/9  HR/9  IP  fWAR  W-L
 Matt Garza  3.72  2.97  9.23  3.26  0.62  116.0  3.0  4-7
 John Danks  3.79  3.99  6.81  2.69  1.01  107.0  1.6  4-8
 Doug Fister  3.33  3.23  5.49  1.97  0.43  146.0  3.0  3-12
 Bud Norris  3.60  3.74  8.86  3.32  1.11  130.0  1.6  5-7
 R.A. Dickey  3.74  3.94  6.28  2.61  0.94  134.2  1.3  5-8
 Dustin Moseley  3.30  3.95  4.80  2.70  0.75  120.0  0.8  5-8
 Madison Bumgarner  3.56  2.43  7.91  1.92  0.36  126.1  3.9  3-10
 Ervin Santana  3.47  3.68  7.48  2.43  1.03  148.0  2.4  6-8
 Mat Latos  4.05  3.39  8.34  3.26  0.79  113.1  1.5  5-8
 Jordan Zimmermann  3.27  2.84  6.54  1.49  0.50  126.2  3.2  6-9
 Hiroki Kuroda  3.11  3.70  6.97  2.44  0.95  133.0  1.7  6-13
 Paul Maholm  3.16  3.77  5.67  2.90  0.64  139.2  1.8  6-10

These dozen pitchers have a combined 58-108 record for with a combined 3.49 ERA over 1540.2 innings. They have been worth a combined 25.8 fWAR yet only have a .349 winning percentage. No pitcher in the history of the game has had a winning percentage that low with at least 1500 innings pitched. In fact, the most innings pitched with a percentage that low is by Buster Brown who pitched 1451.2 innings from 1905-1913. The innings and ERA almost mimic that of Jake Peavy, who has a 3.44 ERA in 1536.1 innings but has a 106-78 record for a winning percentage of .576 and 29.8 fWAR. Now, let’s take a look at 12 starters who have under-performed their win-loss record:

   ERA  FIP  K/9  BB/9  HR/9  IP  fWAR  W-L
 Jake Arrieta  5.12  5.29  7.01  4.17  1.65  114.1  0.0  10-7
 Josh Tomlin  4.01  4.06  4.88  1.07  1.20  134.2  1.6  11-5
 Max Scherzer  4.28  4.09  7.75  2.92  1.22  132.1  1.7  11-6
 John Lackey  6.20  4.66  6.10  2.77  1.20  97.1  0.7  9-8
 Kevin Correia  4.38  4.35  4.59  2.12  1.13  127.1  0.7  11-8
 Rick Porcello  4.67  4.02  5.25  2.50  0.83  108.0  1.4  10-6
 Derek Holland  4.43  4.03  6.78  3.12  0.97  130.0  1.9  9-4
 Jake Westbrook  4.86  4.38  4.86  3.25  0.93  116.2  0.5  9-4
 Carlos Zambrano  4.59  4.07  6.05  3.41  0.84  129.1  1.6  7-6
 Kyle McClellan  4.15  4.59  4.47  2.68  1.14  110.2  0.2  7-6
 Wade Davis  4.46  4.92  4.13  3.14  1.16  109.0  0.1  7-7
 Brad Penny  4.51  4.41  3.86  2.84  0.87  123.2  1.1  7-7

And these dozen pitchers have a combined 108-74 record with a combined 4.60 ERA in 1433.1 innings. The record is almost identical to the above mentioned Peavy but the ERA is 1.16 runs higher. Dick Coffman is the best comparable pitcher with a career 4.65 ERA in 1460.1 innings but had a 72-95 record. Theses 12 starters have been worth 11.5 fWAR and have a winning percentage of .593 which is right in line with future Hall-of-Famer Curt Schilling and borderline candidate Kevin Brown.

The first group suggests Buster Brown has been pitching when in fact they have been pitching more like Jake Peavy has throughout his career and the second group suggests Curt Schilling or Kevin Brown have been dominating the league when Dick Coffman is more like the pitcher they have been. Now do you see why I hate win-loss records for pitchers?

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

Wrigley Field Isn’t a Dump. The Team Might Be

A recent stop to Wrigley Field by the crew of Sunday Night Baseball on ESPN did much to again dispel the notion that the place is more a dump than it is a shrine of baseball. The stadium had come under recent scrutiny as something that needed to be replaced. Let’s hope that idea doesn’t happen soon as we’ve lost enough landmarks as it is. The emphasis on the stadium by the Sunday Night crew was merciful because it lessened the scrutiny that should be put on the team and not the stadium. Nothing is going right for the Cubs and we’ve heard talk about injuries to people like Marlon Byrd and Darwin Barney. But injuries occur for every team. The contention of this writer is that the stadium shouldn’t be torn down and rebuilt. The Cubs, though, perhaps are another story.

There are so many cheap shots this writer could take. The owner has a name that calls to mind a childhood disease. The field is named after childhood dentists’ worst nightmare. But we’ll try to take the high road here. The obvious fact is that this team needs to be torn down to begin again. Lou Piniella obviously lost the team last year. The Cubs had a brutal start. This writer railed from the outskirts that old Lou needed to go. He was the problem. And sure enough, the old guy did step down and Mike Quade took over and the team took off. But here it is a year later with that same Mike Quade and the Cubs are pretty much where they were a year ago with Sweet Lou. And Buster Olney of ESPN.com is hinting that Quade has lost some of the clubhouse.

None of those facts and innuendos add up to good news for the Cubs. If a certain segment of the team has been “lost” by Quade after Piniella “lost” the clubhouse last year, perhaps it’s time to get rid of the members in the clubhouse. Let them go poison some other teams for a change. Part of the Cubs’ story is about sunk costs. There are enormous contracts to Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Zambrano. What good are those three if you have a team that is kicking its legs like a turtle turned upside down? Sunk costs are sunk costs. You aren’t going to get rid of the costs no matter what, but you can get rid of the players.

Alfonso Soriano will make $18 million this year…and next year…and the year after that…and the year after that. He was worth around $7 million last year and will have to hustle in the second half to earn that this season. He is a sunk cost. It isn’t going to get better. Why not admit that and get rid of the guy. Plenty of teams could use a DH in the American League if the Cubs were paying the tab. Perhaps some of those teams would even give a marginal prospect or two. The Cubs aren’t going anywhere anyway. Get rid of him.

Aramis Ramirez is getting paid anywhere from $14.6 million to $16 million this year. He might be an eight or nine million dollar player this season. There is a club option for him next year. There is no way the club will pick that up. From many accounts, the guy doesn’t try very hard. There are too many whispers about him to not think there is something behind those whispers. Ramirez has a $1 million clause in his contract if he is traded. That complicates the Cubs’ prospects of making a deal this year. If there are no takers. Then release him. He’s a sunk cost anyway.

Carlos Zambrano is a sunk cost. He’s getting $18 million or thereabouts this year and will make the same next year. He’s really worth closer to $10 million. He’s only 30 years old and probably has the highest trade value of the three players we’ve talked about. It’s possible that a team would take a chance on him and give up some value to get him. That should be encouraged as much as possible. It’s time for his era to end in Chicago.

The pain involved with getting rid of three anchors of your team is finding people to take their place. But if you are fallen and can’t get up, that pain can’t be lessened by keeping players who make too much money and may be a drag to your team in the clubhouse and on the field. Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney are a step in the right direction and show what can happen by getting younger. The drawback is that those two players lack some skills needed to improve the Cubs (like getting on base by being patient at the plate). The bottom line is that the people they have can’t or won’t get the job done.

The Cubs need to concentrate on pitching and defense. Matt Garza has been a disappointment. But at least he was a step in the right way of thinking. He has a big time arm and that’s what the Cubs need to start stockpiling. They also need to fix their defense. The Cubs are dead last in the majors in fielding efficiency and fielding percentage. That’s a deadly double-whammy. Ridding yourself of Soriano and Ramirez will not hurt there either.

The one constant through all these long-term signings and through the way too many years of stuttering is the general manager. He’s been the constant in this picture since July 5, 2002. He certainly is a love him or hate him kind of guy. And it’s hard to argue with the Cubs winning three division titles under Hendry. But since 2008, the team has foundered without any break in the gloom except for their second half run last year. Perhaps there needs to be a change in direction. Perhaps it is time to say that Hendry has had his chance and it hasn’t worked out. That’s business and that’s life. These Cubs…these misfits with big wallets are his. If this writer was Mr. Ricketts, the mandate would be to get rid of the high priced and low productivity and get as much as you can for them. How well that assignment goes would be the win/loss variables for job security.

We hear a lot about the Cub fans. We hear about their loyalty and about the diehard nature of their yearly existence. They deserve at least some indication that the problems are understood and that a plan is in place to undo the mistakes of the past. Those fans know that the bottom line is that this club is bloated and beached like a whale and even if Quade was Captain Ahab, it’s going to be impossible to get that whale back off the beach.

-William J. Tasker, a/k/a The Flagrant Fan, a knowledgeable and passionate baseball fan that can be followed on twitter and found writing daily at his blog

Who’s the Cubs All-Star: Castro, Garza, or Marshall?

The Chicago Cubs will most likely be sending only one representative to the All-Star game on July 12th in Arizona. Who will that one representative be? After taking a long look at the roster I have it narrowed down to three choices: Matt Garza, Starlin Castro, and Sean Marshall. Here is a profile on each one’s season so far:

Starlin Castro has the highest fWAR on the team among position players at 1.7 but that number ranks only 5th among NL shortstops. I was surprised to see that he had the 2nd worst UZR among NL shortstops with -5.9 because his range is well above-average. His rWAR is even worse at 0.6 and while his bat has been great this year, hitting .320/.348/.442 with a .354 wOBA, the negative defensive play may have shot his chances at an All-Star bid.

Some may discredit Matt Garza because of his 4.11 ERA but he leads all Cubs with a 2.0 fWAR on the season. Garza also ranks 2nd in the National League with a K/9 of 9.63 and he has been the victim of some bad luck with the 5th highest BABIP at .332. His FIP is a stellar 2.88 and his xFIP is also stellar at 2.90, which is 6th best in the NL. One can argue that he has been the most valuable player on the team. Unfortunately, his 2.0 fWAR ranks just 11th in the NL among a deep crop of starting pitchers.

Sean Marshall is the last player on this team that I would consider for a spot on the roster. He is tied for the 3rd highest fWAR among NL relievers with 1.0 and that number is also tied for 3rd highest on the Cubs pitching staff. Marshall has done everything well this year. He has a 2.41 ERA, 2.22 FIP, and 2.58 xFIP to go with a 9.09 K/9 and 56.8% groundball rate. He has also been a bit unlucky with a .337 BABIP.

This is a tough choice. I love Matt Garza’s peripherals but the starting pitching crop is much too deep to choose him. Starlin Castro has been great with the bat but both UZR and Total Zone agree that his defense has been awful this year and we have to remember that there are two sides to the ball. This leaves me with choosing Sean Marshall. The All-Star roster is always in need of a lefty out of the bullpen that can get a strikeout or groundball and Marshall gets nothing but strikeouts and groundballs. I like to include three or less relievers on my All-Star roster and he is the 3rd most valuable reliever according to fWAR. Welcome to the 2011 All-Star roster Sean Marshall.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

Is Garza’s Success Due to a New Approach?

Matt Garza‘s three seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays were good ones. In those three seasons he averaged 197 innings of 109 ERA+ ball to go along with his 8.2 H/9, 7.1 K/9, and 2.32 K/BB rate. Garza was worth 9.0 rWAR and 7.9 fWAR but he always flashed signs of better things to come.

Garza is now a Chicago Cub and many, myself included, thought the windy airs of Chicago would hurt his flyball tendancies that were on the rise, going from 39.9%in 2008 to 42.5% in 2009 to 44.7% in 2010. The results, so far, have been a bit unexpected. Garza has not allowed a single homerun to the 137 batters he has faced in his 30.2 innings pitched. Not only has he not allowed a homerun but he has only allowed 18 flyballs to those 137 batters. Is this due to a new approach? I think so. Check out his pitch selection over the years:

 Year  Fastball  Slider  Curveball Changeup
 2008  72.2%  13.0%  6.9%  7.9%
 2009  71.1%  13.1%  11.0%  4.8%
 2010  71.5%  14.0%  9.0%  5.5%
 2011  53.8%  22.7%   12.4%  11.2%

 

Another thing I noticed in his pitches was that his slider, curve, and change all were a bit faster than years prior while his fastball was a tick slower. I believe this is due to him throwing more Two-Seam Fastballs and that would explain his large jump in grounballs hits from 35.8% last season to 50.6% this season. Take a look at his pitch selection from his last outing:

You will notice from the plot (thanks to brooksbaseball.net) a large number of light-blue squares (Two-Seamers) from Garza’s last outing. His approach (looking at other outings as well) has been to throw Two-Seamers away to left-handed batters (check out his chart from 4/20 ) and in to right-handed batters, his slider away to RHB, his change away to LHB, his curve away to LHB, and his Four-Seamer up to both batters. Down in the zone and down out of the zone looks to me Two-Seamers, Curves, Sliders, and Change-ups, with a few Four-Seamers but not many.

His new approach has led to a league-leading 12.03 K/9, a league best 1.25 FIP, a league best 1.95 xFIP, and a league low zero homeruns allowed, tying him with a league best 1.6 fWAR. His defense behind him has been the reason he has a 4.11 ERA as his BABIP is a league high .414, 30 points higher than the next pitcher and 125 points higher than the league average.

Garza’s early season success is in large part due to his new approach to pitching. Cubs fans who were happy to have Matt Garza the thrower in thier rotation will be thrilled to know that they now have Matt Garza the pitcher fronting the rotation.

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