Historically Underrated: John Olerud

Posted on December 29, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

When the Hall of Fame ballots come out I love to look at the names that are included for the first time. To simply be named on the Hall of Fame ballot is an honor even if you know that player will not get a single vote.

As I started looking at the first-time names on this year’s ballot there really weren’t any that stuck out to me and made me think they would be missed if they fell off the ballot after one year. Javy Lopez may have been the closest name to do that since he did have a fantastic offensive career as a catcher but after taking a long look at him I don’t think I will ever wonder if it was sad that his name came and went in one year. Bernie Williams was another name but I actually think he will have a small support group that will keep him on the ballot for at least another year.

Last year’s ballot had two names that, like Lou Whitaker, came and went in one year and left me wondering if they maybe should have hung on a little bit longer. One was Kevin Brown and the other was John Olerud.

Olerud always intrigued me. From the helmet he wore both on the field and at the plate to the fact he did not play in his first minor league game until he was 36 years old. Olerud had a sweet swing, smooth glove, and knack for getting on base. In fact, there are only 17 retired players in history that have reached base more than Olerud’s 3602 times and are not in the HOF. Here they are (in order of times on base):

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Ultimate Base Running added to fWAR

Posted on May 24, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

I was so excited to see that Fangraphs has added UBR (Ultimate Base Running) to the site and more importantly to fWAR. I have been longing for a value stat like WAR to add base running. It already has offense, defense, and positional adjustments; it was missing base running. fWAR is evolving into an even better stat and carrying more weight than almost any other metric out there.

The new addition will change most player’s seasonal fWAR totals and career totals but, as David Appleman mentions in the article, it won’t be more than 0.4 in any particular season and no more than 1.3 for a career. Oh, the stat is only from 2002 to current so it will not affect some of our all-time favorites. It is also listed as BSR in the player and leaderboard pages. Here are a few notes from some of the player pages:

**Since it’s inception in 2002 the worst base runners in the league are: Paul Konerko (-44.2), David Ortiz (-40.5), Jim Thome (-33.9), and Pat Burrell (-30.6).

**The best base runners have been: Juan Pierre (43.6), Chone Figgins (41.7), Jimmy Rollins (33.6), and Carlos Beltran (30.5).

**I am not sure how good of a base runner Babe Ruth was but I have to imagine Barry Bonds was a better one and that the fWAR totals could inch closer to each other. I would also like to see how much value it adds to greats like Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, Joe Dimaggio, and Honus Wagner.

**Carlos Lee is an even worse player than we thought. He has a career -20.1 BSR and has not posted a positive BSR number since 2004.

**Carl Crawford‘s value rises even more with a career 20.3 BSR but surprisingly has a -0.7 BSR this season.

**What doesn’t Jose Bautista do well this year? He hits, fields, and apparently runs the bases well with a 1.9 BSR.

**The versatile Ben Zobrist proves to add more value with a 7.4 BSR since he became a starter in 2009.

**Nate McLouth and Alex Rios lead the league with a 2.8 BSR followed by Melky Cabrera who has a 2.7 BSR but had a -2.9 coming into the season.

**Albert Pujols is the 11th best base runner since the inception of UBR/BSR with a 20.7. The next closest first baseman is the retired Shea Hillenbrand at 6.2 then Aubrey Huff at 1.1 and Derrek Lee at 0.8. Every other current first baseman with at least 750 plate appearances is at zero or in the negative.

**Jhonny Peralta is the worst middle infielder since it’s inception with a -13.2. Jose Lopez is next with a -9.0 followed by Jeff Kent at -7.6 and Miguel Tejada at -2.5

**This will hurt players like Edgar Martinez who have a get-him-in-the-hall following. He was -17.0 in just three seasons of data and I cannot imagine him being anything better than a -30 for his career.

For more just head on over to Fangrpahs.com and go to Leaders and sort by BSR. Have fun!

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert

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Brian Giles is Historically Underrated

Posted on May 3, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Hi, my name is Brian Giles and I am historically underrated. You may not have realized how good I was during my playing career. Probably because I didn’t reach 450 plate appearances until I was 26 years old. Or because I didn’t reach 600 PAs until I was 28 years of age. Or because I played my entire career with the Indians, Pirates, and Padres and only had 90 postseason PAs. Whatever the reason may have been it left me vastly underrated.

This is a very true statement. Over Giles’ 15 year career he hit 287 homeruns, 411 doubles, 55 triples, stole 109 bases, and had 1183 walks against just 835 strikeouts compiled over 7800 plate appearances for an fWAR of 57.8, good for 59th all-time among outfielders and a higher total than both Hall of Famers Jim Rice and Kirby Puckett. Take a look at their totals by nth season:

Giles’ best season was bested by Rice and Puckett’s best season but Giles’ 2nd through 10th best seasons were all better than any of Rice or Puckett’s 2nd through 10th best seasons. Am I saying Giles is a Hall of Famer? No, I am just saying he is historically underrated. I am also saying that he was probably better than Rice and Puckett but that’s for another time.

Giles compiled an impressive triple-slash line of .291/.400/.502 in his career. Only 11 other outfielders with at least 7800 plate appearances have a triple-slash of .290/.400/.500 or better. Eight of those 11 outfielders are Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Ted Williams, Mickey Mantle, Mel Ott, Ed Delahanty, and Harry Heilmann, each in the Hall of Fame. The other three are Barry Bonds, Larry Walker, and Manny Ramirez, each deserving of the Hall of Fame. Am I saying Brian Giles belongs in the Hall of Fame? No, I am just saying he is historically underrated.

In fact, there are only 20 other players in the history of the game with at least 7800 PAs and a .290/.400/.500. I mentioned 11 above, the other nine are Stan Musial, Rogers Hornsby, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Chipper Jones, Jeff Bagwell, Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez, and Todd Helton. Four of those nine are in the Hall of Fame and the other five all have legitimate cases. Am I saying Brian Giles belongs in the Hall of Fame? No, I am just saying he is historically underrated.

Now, I could cherry pick the stats more to the tune of .290/.400/.500 with 280+ homeruns, 50+ triples, 100+ stolen bases, and with more walks than strikeouts if I want but cherry picking… oh, what the heck, I think I will anyways. There are only 6 players in history that meet these criteria: Ruth, Bonds, Hornsby, Mantle, Gehrig, and Mr. Brian Giles. You want to talk about being in the company of legends, this is it. Of course, Giles does not hold a candle to these legends but either way, Giles is in the company of greats.

Am I saying Brian Giles belongs in the Hall of Fame? No, I am just saying he is historically underrated.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert

Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis, Hall of Fame | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

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