Could Derrek Lee Actually Help the Yankees?

Derrek

When New York Yankees first baseman Mark Teixeira went down with a wrist injury, that will likely keep him out of the lineup and off the field through May, the Yankees must have regretted letting Nick Swisher walk via free agency. (more…)

The Biggest Deadline Winners Are…

The trade deadline has come and gone and it may take years to figure out who the actual “losers” are from this deadline. But, we can give a pretty clear answer as to who the winners were, especially if we are grading them on 2011 contention, which is part of the grading scale. With that, here are my top two trade deadline winners.

Cleveland Indians: The Indians did not look like a team going to the playoffs before the deadline passed. With the deadline gone they added the best pitcher on the market in Ubaldo Jimenez and they not only get him for the 2011 stretch run but they get him for the three years after for only $17.95M. Sure, they gave up Drew Pomeranz, Alex White, Joe Gardner, and Matt McBride, but none of them made my mid-season top 25 (although Pomeranz was on a lot of mid-season top 25 lists) and Pomeranz was 64th on my pre-season top 175 White was 100th.

Cleveland also got rid of Orlando Cabrera and actually got a serviceable prospect in Thomas Neal from the Giants. Cabrera was having his worst season ever with -0.7 fWAR, .275 OBP, and -7.2 UZR. Cabrera should’ve been cut but they got a potentially good 4th outfielder in Neal for a player that actually cost the team wins. This allows them to play Jason Kipnis who should be worth at least a win over the negative value Cabrera brought. Let’s not forget that Cleveland also got Kosuke Fukudome earlier in the deadline week for organizational pieces.

Atlanta Braves: By getting Michael Bourn from the Houston Astros, the Braves did two things that they desperately needed to do: add a center fielder and add a top of the order bat. Check and check. Bourn is a plus defender in center and his .363 OBP and steals at the top of the order are a far cry from what the Braves have been getting from that lineup spot. On top of being a good defender, good base stealer, and getting on base at a good clip, he is also on of the best base runners in the game (different than stealing bases) with a Bsr of +5.6.

There were talks of the Braves going after corner outfielders with better bats but that would have been a disservice to the team who already has two good corner outfielders and desperately needed a center fielder. Now we can, hopefully, stop hearing about Jason Heyward being demoted. They did give up bulk in prospects but nothing of significant value and held on to their top prospects. Not a bad move for Bourn who also has another year of control left.

***********************Other Winners***********************

The Philadelphia Phillies were also winners by adding Hunter Pence to an already stellar team. His plus right-handed bat fits perfectly in that lineup and he should help push the Phillies over the top. This move was clearly one to make them better for the postseason and for future seasons. They did give up high reward prospects but still held onto Domonic Brown.

The Texas Rangers filled a major need by adding Koji Uehara and Mike Adams to a bullpen that really had no one outside of Neftali Feliz. The Rangers did not get rid of anyone that was part of their plans for the next year or so and gained pitching combo that has a combined 111/17 K/BB in 95 innings with a 1.42 ERA.

On the flip of the Rangers deal, the San Diego Padres received two prospects that I like a lot in Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland. Both pitchers pound the zone and will love pitching in PETCO park soon. Erlin is only 20 and has a 123/12 K/BB in 121.1 innings and is already in AA. He is not overpowering but has great control and mixes his pitches really well. Wieland has seen increased velocity to go with his good control and has a 132/15 K/BB in 129.2 innings and is 21 and in AA. Both pitchers can be flyball prone so PETCO is the right place for them.

The Pittsburgh Pirates did not add any real impact players but the players they did add are better than what they currently were trotting out on the field. Ryan Ludwick and Derrek Lee both offer upgrades and the Pirates did not give up much for them unless the PTBNL turns out to be significant but I highly doubt it.

The Detroit Tigers added a very underrated starter in Doug Fister who is an immediate upgrade over their current 4th and 5th starters. They gave up some low-level talent and a good 4th outfielder in Casper Wells but that is a decent price for a guy with a 3.33 ERA and 3.24 FIP. Fister may miss the Seattle defense but he will love the Detroit offense.

The Seattle Mariners added a bunch of depth and sold off Fister and Erik Bedard, which is fine because Seattle has no problem developing pitching and has a wave of arms almost ready to contribute from with in. Adding Trayvon Robinson and Francisco Martinez to a farm system desperate for bats was huge for the Mariners and Robinson, who has great raw power and will be a great defender, could be their starting left fielder next year.

Lastly, I love what the Baltimore Orioles did at the deadline. They did give up a very good reliever in Uehara but they are not contending this year and next year is a building block year for thier real contention run starting in 2013. Aaron Baker is not much of a prospect but they cleared themselves of Derrek Lee. Tommy Hunter is a serviceable swing man or 5th starter and I absolutely love Chris Davis, always have. He has so much raw power and needs to play everyday in the majors to see if he belongs. He can pass as a third basemen but is better served at first. He was hitting .368/.405/.824 with 24 homeruns in 193 AAA at-bats before being called up just over a week ago. He’s done proving it in the minors and the Orioles could have themselves a legit 35 homer guy but I would like to see him show a little more plate discipline.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

Ultimate Base Running added to fWAR

I was so excited to see that Fangraphs has added UBR (Ultimate Base Running) to the site and more importantly to fWAR. I have been longing for a value stat like WAR to add base running. It already has offense, defense, and positional adjustments; it was missing base running. fWAR is evolving into an even better stat and carrying more weight than almost any other metric out there.

The new addition will change most player’s seasonal fWAR totals and career totals but, as David Appleman mentions in the article, it won’t be more than 0.4 in any particular season and no more than 1.3 for a career. Oh, the stat is only from 2002 to current so it will not affect some of our all-time favorites. It is also listed as BSR in the player and leaderboard pages. Here are a few notes from some of the player pages:

**Since it’s inception in 2002 the worst base runners in the league are: Paul Konerko (-44.2), David Ortiz (-40.5), Jim Thome (-33.9), and Pat Burrell (-30.6).

**The best base runners have been: Juan Pierre (43.6), Chone Figgins (41.7), Jimmy Rollins (33.6), and Carlos Beltran (30.5).

**I am not sure how good of a base runner Babe Ruth was but I have to imagine Barry Bonds was a better one and that the fWAR totals could inch closer to each other. I would also like to see how much value it adds to greats like Ty Cobb, Willie Mays, Joe Dimaggio, and Honus Wagner.

**Carlos Lee is an even worse player than we thought. He has a career -20.1 BSR and has not posted a positive BSR number since 2004.

**Carl Crawford‘s value rises even more with a career 20.3 BSR but surprisingly has a -0.7 BSR this season.

**What doesn’t Jose Bautista do well this year? He hits, fields, and apparently runs the bases well with a 1.9 BSR.

**The versatile Ben Zobrist proves to add more value with a 7.4 BSR since he became a starter in 2009.

**Nate McLouth and Alex Rios lead the league with a 2.8 BSR followed by Melky Cabrera who has a 2.7 BSR but had a -2.9 coming into the season.

**Albert Pujols is the 11th best base runner since the inception of UBR/BSR with a 20.7. The next closest first baseman is the retired Shea Hillenbrand at 6.2 then Aubrey Huff at 1.1 and Derrek Lee at 0.8. Every other current first baseman with at least 750 plate appearances is at zero or in the negative.

**Jhonny Peralta is the worst middle infielder since it’s inception with a -13.2. Jose Lopez is next with a -9.0 followed by Jeff Kent at -7.6 and Miguel Tejada at -2.5

**This will hurt players like Edgar Martinez who have a get-him-in-the-hall following. He was -17.0 in just three seasons of data and I cannot imagine him being anything better than a -30 for his career.

For more just head on over to Fangrpahs.com and go to Leaders and sort by BSR. Have fun!

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert

NL/AL Most Improved Lineups

After off-season moves this past season, two teams come to the forefront, in my mind, on who became the most improved in the two different leagues.

(July 19, 2009 – Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images North America)

In the American League, the Baltimore Orioles made a meandering of changes in their lineup this off-season to try to support their young and talented pitching staff. The major off-season acquisitions included Derrek Lee, Mark Reynolds, J.J. Hardy, and Vladimir Guerrero. All four of those players have the power to hit 20 home runs, maybe with the exception of Hardy. He did however hit over 20 in the ’07 and ’08 seasons. The only problem in going this route, you’re not planning for the future. None of these four players will be with the team for more than a couple of years at most.

The interesting aspect what these players bring is the protection that Nick Markakis, Adam Jones and Luke Scott gain in the line up. Lee doesn’t have the same power he once had after his wrist injury, but is still a dangerous hitter. Reynolds will probably continue to strike out at an alarming rate, but will probably still hit 35+ home runs in hitter friendly Camden Yards. He also has to deal with the better pitching in the AL East compared to the much weaker NL West, which could be a problem. Junk ball hitting specialist, Guerrero should be a dangerous hitter in this line up as well. He’s thrived in the DH role with Texas last season, and I expect him to keep the same momentum going. If you figure in a healthy Brian Roberts at the top of the lineup, and a young Matt Wieters behind the plate, it could rival any team in the AL as one of the best lineups.

With the young pitching staff, the team is going to have to put up a lot of runs in order to help these young guys “take their lumps” while they gain more experience. Brian Matusz is poised to have a break out year, and Jeremy Guthrie could have a winning record with his normal ERA in the low fours or high threes. Between young pitchers Chris Tillman, Jake Arrieta and to an extent Brad Bergesen, with veteran Justin Duchscherer could make for an adaquete rotation with a very high ceiling. I’m not expecting a Cy Young winner to emerge from the group, but they could win a number of games with amount of runs the line up could mash in.

Potential Lineup:

Brian Roberts – 2B
Adam Jones – CF
Luke Scott – LF
Vladimir Gurrero – DH
Nick Markakis – RF
Derrek Lee – 1B
Mark Reynolds – 3B
Matt Wieters – C
J.J. Hardy – SS

It’s pretty hard to place all those power hitters in the lineup while trying to make the most sense. This will give coach Buck Showalter the flexibility to have a lot different lineup configurations depending on the pitching match up.  The only hitter on the team that hit over 20 home runs last season was Luke Scott. He should be poised to do the same, and drive in plenty of runs himself. This lineup might be one of the most balanced lineups I’ve ever seen as well. You have two switch hitters, five right handed hitters, and two left handed hitters. Fact of the matter is, they’re also in one of the best divisions in all of baseball. Between the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays and even the Blue Jays, I just don’t foresee them making the playoffs, but they’re going to surprise a lot of people this season. Will they make it out of the cellar? There’s a really good possibility that occurs.

On the NL side of things, the Washington Nationals added some players that give slugger Ryan Zimmerman some extra protection that could even take him up to a next level (if there is one for him). The additions of Jayson Werth and Adam Laroche will add 40-50 home runs from those two batters alone. Werth of  course was the super-star contract acquisition this season, but it’s going to be hard for him to live up to those expectations. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fantastic player, and knew he was good with the Dodogers; he just needed that change to get regular playing time. He got that with the Phillies and got him a World Series ring in the process.

(August 5, 2009 – Photo by Doug Pensinger/Getty Images North America)

Outfielder Michael Morse appears to have gotten a shot to be the everyday left fielder for the team to start the season. In only 266 ABs, he hit 15 home runs and batted in 41. Assuming enough at-bats for an everyday player through out the season, 30 home runs and 90 RBIs aren’t out of the question for him.

None of the options the team has for center field are all that attractive. I think Nyjer Morgan makes the most sense to me, since he can lead off, so I want to assume they’ll go that route. Last I read; however, Rick Ankiel has the inside track to securing the position, which I’m not sure that is the best option for the team. Without Morgan, they have no true lead off hitter. Roger Bernadina is also in the mix for OF time. Ian Desmond is more suited to be the second batter in the lineup behind Morgan.

Youngster Danny Espinosa, who has 15 home run power is slated to take over duties at 2nd base. Desmond should able to build on a pretty decent rookie campaign from last season. Hot shot catching prospect, Wilson Ramos, who was acquired in the Matt Capps trade with the Twins could start to figure in the lineup too with aging Pudge Rodriquez. It’s also possible that Jesus Flores could factor into the catching spot too, but there has been some interest with him going to Houston when Jason Castro was lost for the season.

Potential Lineup  (How I would construct it):

Nyjer Morgan – CF
Ian Desmond – SS
Ryan Zimmerman – 3B
Jayson Werth – RF
Michael Morse – LF
Adam LaRoche – 1B
Pudge Rodriguez / Wilson Ramos – C
Danny Espinosa – 2B
Pitchers Spot

The pitcher’s spot brings up a really good point: The Washington Nationals rotation and bullpen are a giant mess. Livan Hernandez is _NOT_who you want pitching for you opening day. With Steven Strasburg on the shelf all season, and Jordan Zimmerman having his own injuries last season, the team doesn’t have much to work with. The other three pitchers poised to make the rotation are Jason Marquis, John Lannan and Tom Gorzelanny. They will not be able to compete at all with the Phillies, but could give the Braves and Marlins a kind of “run for their money”. They’re a much better hitting team this season, by spending a lot of money, but with out pitching they don’t stand a chance.

Young closer Drew Storen has seemed to lost his spot at closer as well with a horrid spring with an ERA over 11. I saw last that the team has no official closer announced as of yet. We’ll see what happens there. Tyler Clippard could get some time shutting down games of Storen officially loses it.

The Man Behind the #10 Jersey – Adam Jones

Adam Jones

MLB reports:  It is not every day that I have the opportunity to correspond with a Gold Glove winning major league all-star, but over the last couple of weeks I got to do just that with Adam Jones of the Baltimore Orioles.  Getting to know Adam and hearing his thoughts on the game, his career, and team was fascinating to say the least.  The story begins as follows. 

Adam, one of the most fan friendly MLB stars on twitter, started to converse with me on my usual favorite topic, baseball.  I was instantly drawn to his easy going personality and zest for life and the game.  After some messages back and forth, I brought up my blog and the interview articles I prepare on MLB reports. Being the cool cat that he is, Adam suggested he would love to help out a young writer and agreed to be interviewed for this profile piece.  After some research, back and forth emails, and analysis, here we are today. 

We covered a range of topics on the career of #10, which I am about to jump into further.  Discussing topics ranging from the baseball influences on his career, his greatest accomplishments, goals, and areas of improvement, Adam did not hold back in his answers.  Considering Adam was both an All-Star and Gold Glove recipient in 2009, it was astounding to find that he did not have an ounce of attitude in his answers.  This is a player that is still humble at the age of 25 and works towards improving every facet of his game.  The combination of baseball skills, work ethic and positive outlook, I believe will translate into a limitless future for one of baseball’s young bright stars.

One of the first questions that I asked Adam was to name the baseball player he most idolized growing up and patterned his game after.  Born and raised in San Diego, California, to no surprise Adam named Tony Gwynn.  However, the reasons behind his response did perk my curiosity.  Baseball was not a sport that Adam “followed too strongly until approximately the age of 12” and only then, Gwynn was more a player that Jones had heard of than followed.  When asked to expand, Adam explained that “I’ve hit with TG [Gwynn] for a few off-seasons now since I’ve been drafted.  We have a tight group that hits together at San Diego State University.”  As far as the influence Gwynn had on his game, Adam indicated that “what I’ve learned is myself.  I’m not the hitter that he [Gwynn] was and that’s not my mentality.  We’ve just had discussions of thought processes and having the ability to take a step back and let the ball come to you.”  When breaking down the comparisons between Jones and Gwynn as players, his response becomes even clearer.

Tony Gwynn, a 2007 Hall of Fame inductee, played in 15 All-Star games, was the recipient of 5 Gold Gloves and 7 Silver Slugger Awards.  Gwynn also ended his career with a .338 lifetime average.  Jones, at the age of 25, brings a different game to the table.  Gwynn is a difficult, if not impossible, player to emulate and Jones is realistic in this regard.  The Gold Glove and All-Star appearance are already there with the promise of more to come.  Adam’s batting average has slowly risen every year of his career to a high of .284 in 2010.  With the right approach and discipline, .300 + is well within his reach.  Like Gwynn, Jones does a bit of everything, including hitting for power and stealing the occasional base.  Similar to Gwynn, Jones’ on-base percentage is dependent more on base hits than walks.    The more I compare the players, the standard that Gwynn set for his career is one that I feel that Adam can strive towards.  The bottom line on Gwynn is that the man could just plain hit.  Jones, working his way up the major league ladder, could follow in the Gwynn’s footsteps, even if Adam does not implicitly try to do so.

My follow-up question asked Adam to name the current MLB star that he most admired.  Based on Adam’s statistics and game style, I would have bet the answer was going to be Torii Hunter.  Guess what?  I was right.  But again, the reasons behind his answer threw me.  According to Adam, “there aren’t enough good things to say about him [Hunter].  But my favorite attribute about him has nothing to do with baseball.  That what he does for a living.  It’s his character.  He [Hunter] is a true leader on and off the field and is highly respected.”  My correlation between Adam and Hunter centered on their similar statistics and abilities on the field, in contrast to Adams’ vision of Hunter as a person and leader.  Hunter, a 4-time All-Star, 9-time Gold Glove winner and a Silver Slugger recipient, as a youngster in many ways mirrored the player that we see in Jones today.  In his breakout year in 2001, Hunter had a batting line of 27 home runs, .261 average, 82 runs, 92 rbis, .306 obp and .479 slg.  Jones, in his 2009 campaign had a line of 19 home runs, .277 average, 83 runs, 70 rbis, .335 obp and .442 slg.  Although not entirely the same, as hitters Jones and Hunter showcased several similarities in those respective years.  The following is Hunter’s average season in the major leagues: .275 batting average, 25 home runs, 89 runs, 95 rbis and 17 stolen bases.  Considering what Adam has accomplished to-date, these numbers are surely attainable and possible for him to exceed.

Adam indicated that he knew Torii very well and some of his favorite characteristics of Hunter was that “he plays the game the way it’s supposed to be played”, “not a guy that makes any excuses.” Adam mentioned Hunters’ upbeat attitude, and that his’ “favorite thing is that he smiles all the time.  He shows he is happy doing what he loves to do.”  Hunter’s personality has definitely rubbed off on Adam in a positive manner and reflects in his attitude and demeanor on and off the field.  If I had to include a caveat, however, it is the holes that Hunter has in his game that Adam would be well served to avoid in his own play.  Although Hunter is a strong home run hitter and has the ability to score and drive in runs, he has traditionally not hit for a high average or been able to get on-base at a consistent clip.  By working with Tony Gwynn, Jones should focus on raising his own level of base hits and batting average to compensate for a lack of walks.  At this stage of his career, it will be interesting to see if Adam becomes a high average and/or home run hitter as he progresses. 

With the above comparisons in mind, I asked Adam what he considered to be his greatest baseball skill(s) and aspects of his game he most wished to improve.  Rather than name a specific on-field capacity, Adam named his “lack of fear” as his greatest trait.  Adam believes that, “others should be a better evaluator of my skills.  I just play.”  This answer fit well within his stated areas of improvement, whereby Adam indicates, “I really want to improve on everything.  I need to steal more bases or be more aggressive.  I need to play better defense.  To get better judgment at the plate.  The best part about baseball is that there is always something to improve on.”  A star player that believes he can improve in every area of the game.  How refreshing.  When I pinpointed particular areas in his game, Adam responds by mentioning that he’s, “never been a high home run guy or walks or stolen bases.  I’ve always played my game and that’s got me to where I’m at now.  Adjustments are needed to be made in order to stay at this level so I am constantly trying to improve on something.”  Whereas Gwynn, known as “Mr. Padre” and “Captain Video” for dedicating enormous amounts of time  to studying video and his approach at the plate, Adam indicates the danger in thinking too much. While he does video, it can often lead into over-thinking and therefore Adam tries to avoid “thinking about hitting when in the batter’s box.” Let the instincts take over. An interesting and old-school mentality as a player, rather than trying to work on specific components, Adam works hard at improving all aspects of his game. 

I was curious as to what Jones considers his greatest accomplishment to-date in baseball and what goals he had for the 2011 season.  His 2009 Gold Glove ranks as the top accomplishment, because as Adam says, “it was decided by my peers.”  For the upcoming season, Adam is focusing on, “playing harder than I have.  For me in sports, I feel that if I play every day, the numbers take care of themselves.”  I didn’t get the sense that Adam is the type that checks the box score every day to break down and categorize his own statistics.  This is a player that is driven to play as hard as he can every day and simply focuses on helping his team win.  Plain and simple. 

Playing under Buck Showalter should only serve to further Adam’s approach to the game and lead to big things for him and the Orioles as the year approaches.  Showalter, a 2-time MLB Manager of the Year, has a career 916-856 record in 12 seasons.  Dissecting the numbers even further, in his 2nd year as a manager at each of his three stops, Showalter attained 88 wins with the Yankees, 100 wins with the Diamondbacks and 89 wins with the Rangers.  Going into year two with the Orioles, Showalter will work to bring the same strong attitude and success to Baltimore as he has achieved in each of his previous stops.

As far as what Showalter brings as a manager, Adam indicated that, “accountability was number one.  We held ourselves responsible for how we played.  I believe what he (Showalter) wants is for you to give your best effort and play the game.”  By having a similar mentality with his manager, I envision Jones growing into a leader on this young Orioles team.  In his humble response, Adam considers that, “when it comes to the young guys, I’m still a young guy myself.  But I always try and associate myself with my teammates in the clubhouse or the field.  I want them to know that I got their backs.”  That being said, Adam throws in a caution. “I want to be a leader, of course.  But I’m not going to force the issue with that.  You never want to cross the veterans on the teams and I try and show it (my leadership) with my play.  This season we have added veterans that have won and been leaders of their respective squads.  I think we have the possibility to have multiple leaders.”  A very healthy attitude for a budding superstar growing as both a player and leader on his team.  The Orioles bolstered their lineup for the 2011 season with the additions of Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds, in addition to Justin Duchscherer and Kevin Gregg joining the pitching staff.  A veteran team almost overnight, Jones will have many experienced players to learn from in Baltimore as he continues his rise to the top of the MLB ladder.

Reflecting on the 2010 season, Jones felt that the Orioles as a team, “all tried to do everything possible and we couldn’t do it.  We have to play as a team and have the faith in the guy behind you to get the job done.”  With all the additions to the team and a new season ahead, Jones states, “I want to play baseball with them all.  I am excited to get in the locker room and see my (new) team.”  Considering the Orioles teams of the past that Jones has played for, it has been quite the journey for the 37th overall pick in the 2003 draft.  Originally drafted as a shortstop by the Seattle Mariners, Adam was traded on February 8, 2008 to Baltimore as part of a package for then top of the rotation starting pitcher Erik Bedard.  “My first reaction when I found out I was traded to Baltimore was ‘dang,’ I’m going east.”  But then I thought to myself that I was going to have the opportunity to go and show that I can play this game at a high level.”  For a team and player on the rise, the marriage between the Baltimore Orioles and Adam Jones couldn’t be a better fit.

With many bright years ahead of him, Adam took the time to reflect on what he would most want to be remembered for when it was time to hang up his spikes.  “When its over and done, I want people to know that I played my behind off and loved the game that has treated myself and so many people well.”  When you think of Adam Jones, do not look for the next “Tony Gwynn” or “Torii Hunter”.  Consider Adam Jones as himself, the player that he his and the player that he is striving to become.  Adam works hard and has a strong understanding of his strengths and areas he needs to improve.  Behind the #10 jersey there is no hype, attitude or ego – just the baseball player we will always know as “Adam Jones”.  

Adam Jones

***A special thank you to Adam Jones of the Baltimore Orioles for his time and effort as part of being interviewed for this article.  A thank you as well to Peter Stein, my editor in helping to prepare this piece.***

Please e-mail me at MLBreports@gmail.com with any questions and feedback.  You can follow us on twitter @MLBreports and please bookmark us at http://themlbreports.com      

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