Fantasy Predictions: Pitcher Trends

Posted on January 22, 2013 by Daniel Marino

Bailey

Here is a look at some pitchers and what their trends suggest for 2013.

-In his 11 year career, Aaron Harang had his two best ERA seasons the past two seasons. However, his walk totals were abnormally high last season, posting his worst BB/9 ratio since his rookie season. His SO/9 have been trending downward over the past six years. His SO/BB ratio was also his worst since his rookie season. However, his H/9 was the second best of his career. Put the good and bad together, and you get a .500 pitcher, which Harang was with the Dodgers. In 2011 with the Padres, he was 14-7. If you remove that season, over the past five seasons, Harang is 28-48. He’s a huge risk at this point in his career.

2013 Projection: 8-11 4.66 ERA

-Jake Westbrook posted his best ERA since 2004. He posted the best HR/9 of his career. His BB/9 was his best since 2006. His ERA was his lowest since 2004. The past two seasons, his numbers are trending upward slightly, so Westbrook could have another solid season if that trend continues.

2013 Projection: 13-9 3.90 ERA

-Ricky Romero was horrible in 2012 after three solid seasons to start his career. His BB/9 were way up and his SO/9 were significantly down. The numbers are so alarming, he could very well be hiding an injury. It would be sad to think we’ve already seen the best of Romero. If there is not an injury, he’ll win games with a potent Blue Jay lineup. Romero is someone to watch in Spring Training. (more…)

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Phillies Overpay for Ben Revere

Posted on December 6, 2012 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Revere

The Philadelphia Phillies, desperate for a center fielder, decided not to overpay in cash on a free agent like Michael Bourn and instead opted to overpay in trade to obtain Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins who adds more young pitching to their organization. (more…)

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Phillies Future is Looking Bleak

Posted on April 10, 2012 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

The Philadelphia Phillies are off to a slow start in the 2012 season with a 1-3 record against the Pittsburgh Pirates and division rivals Miami Marlins.

As one would guess, the starting rotation of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Vance Worley, and Cole Hamels have been nothing short of spectacular. They have a combined 2.50 FIP, 2.31 xFIP, with an ERA of 1.78 with 23 strikeouts against only 3 walks and 17 hits in 25.1 innings.

As you can see, the rotation is not the problem. The bullpen has not been as good but a 4.09 ERA and only 2 walks allowed in 11 innings will not kill a team. What will kill a team, though, is scoring only a total of eight runs through the first four games of the season.

The offense has hit an unsustainable .198/.254/.244 with a wOBA of .230 and wRC+ of 48. Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence are just fine and so is Carlos Ruiz but Jimmy Rollins and the rest of the crew are barely hitting their weight and not looking good in the process. Rookie infielder Freddy Galvis, known for his glove and not his bat, is unsurprisingly 1-13 and has grounded into two double-plays.

The offense will get better, though. Ryan Howard will be back in roughly two months and Chase Utley should also be back by then. But this post is not merely about the struggles of a team through its first four game. It is about the closing window of opportunity for a team with one of the highest payrolls in the game and the future is not looking good.

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A Different look at the Pineda-Montero trade

Posted on January 26, 2012 by Michael Schwartze

This analysis is a little late as the trade took place almost two weeks ago but after reading a lot of articles that other people have written, I’ve looked at the trade a little different. In this article I’m really just going to focus on the Michael Pineda, and Jesus Montero parts of the trade and not the Jose Campos and Hector Noesi pieces. This was a rare trade as we usually do not see teams trade 22 year old phenoms to each other like the Yankees and Mariners did.

The Mariners had a chance to land Jesus Montero in a potential trade for Cliff Lee back in 2010. The deal was very very close to happening but it fell through and Cliff Lee ended up being dealt to the Rangers for a package around Justin Smoak. Well Smoak hasn’t quite lived up to the expectations in the eyes of many Mariners fans and people have gotten impatient. After trading Pineda for Montero, I have read people say that they wished the Mariners would have just traded for Montero in the first place back in 2010 and Pineda would have never been traded. People have called the trade for Montero a mulligan for Jack Zdurincik, almost like a re-do of the Cliff Lee deal. People think they should have made only one trade for a young bat and if the Mariners would have made the “right move” back in 2010, Pineda would have not had to been traded. Instead of looking at it like the Mariners should have just traded for Montero back in 2010, I look at it like the Mariners now have both Smoak AND Montero.
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Pitchers With Good Stuff

Posted on November 9, 2011 by William J. Tasker

Jonathan Mitchell’s posts here a few days ago on the worst pitches in baseball and the best pitches of 2011 has to be this writer’s favorites so far this post season. The fact he pointed out that the single worst pitch in baseball for 2011 was A.J. Burnett‘s fastball was shocking. How many times have we heard that A.J. Burnett has great stuff? A thousand or more, right? But obviously, that statement is all wet. Mitchell’s post and Burnett’s “stuff” made this writer wonder just what “good stuff” means. As such, a lot of time was spent culling the Internet for people’s definitions. Dave Cameron’s seminal article linked here was helpful. As were others. The overwhelming conclusion from the research is that stuff has nothing to do with the radar gun.

For example, one article (which the writer can’t seem to relocate) mentioned (it was written two years ago) that over the past several years, one of the most dominant pitches in baseball has been Matt Cain‘s fastball. Matt Cain? Nobody would confuse Matt Cain as a power pitcher. He doesn’t even have superb strikeout rates. So how can that be? It seems that great stuff is more about what pitching is all about and that is causing the batter to make an out. But how do you define it?

Well this is where Mitchell’s piece was so instructive. A great pitch (and a lousy one) can now be measured thanks to Fangraphs and other sites. The valuation of pitches means that we can now measure a pitch’s effectiveness based on the measurement of how many runs that pitch is above or below average. From such data, we can learn, for example, that Ian Kennedy had the most effective fastball in 2011 based on his wFB score. Mitchell’s post gives you all the skinny on baseball’s best pitches in baseball in 2011, so check it out.

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The Best Pitches of 2011

Posted on November 4, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Yesterday I showed you who had the worst five pitches in the majors in 2011 and now I will show you who had the best five pitches.

Those pitches, again, being the fastball, curveball, change-up, are measured using a Fangraphs stat that uses linear weights. Here is the explanation from my post yesterday:

Using linear weights, they come up with stats called wFB, wCH, wCB, wSL, and wCT. It gives you a number value, positive or negative, based on how well that pitcher did with that certain pitch. They take it one step further and added a value based on 100 pitches, or wFB/C, for instance.

The stat takes into account each and every pitch, pitch count, and result. So, while there may be some luck or un-luck involved, it is a pretty accurate take on how well that pitch faired during that one year. It is, though, not a great tool to use on a predictive basis due to the amount of luck on batted balls.

So, here are the best pitches and the pitchers who threw them:

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Stan Musial Award – National League MVP

Posted on October 21, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Picking the National League MVP was almost as difficult as picking the American League MVP.

It came down to a fight between two main candidates whose stats were similar in most areas.

With that said, here is my ballot for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance NL Stan Musial MVP award:

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Walter Johnson Award – National League

Posted on October 13, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

The National League Walter Johnson Award, given to the top pitcher in each league, may very well be the closest race of any of the major awards. There are three candidates that each have legitimate cases and nearly equal stats across the board with each one owning first place in a variety of categories.

The casting of the down ballot pitchers is not much easier with at least five pitchers worthy of the final two spots on a ballot of five. But this is more about who I will be placing first among the three top candidates. Here are their stats side-by-side with league ranks in parenthesis:

 

 

   ERA  FIP  xFIP  ERA+  IP  K/9  BB/9  HR/9  CG  SHO  K  fWAR  rWAR
 Player A  2.35 (2)  2.20 (1)  2.71 (3)  164 (1)  233.2 (2)  8.47 (11)  1.35 (1)  0.39 (1)  8 (1)  1 (6)  220 (3)  8.2 (1)  7.4 (1)
 Player B  2.28 (1)  2.47 (2)  2.84 (4)  163 (2)  233.1 (3)  9.57 (2)  2.08 (12)  0.58 (5)  5 (3)  2 (2)  248 (1)  6.8 (2)  6.9 (2)
 Player C  2.40 (3)  2.60 (3)  2.68 (2)  161 (3)  232.2 (4)  9.21 (4)  1.62 (2)  0.70 (16)  6 (2)  6 (1)  238 (2)  6.7 (3)  6.8 (3)

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Tulowitzki for NL MVP?

Posted on August 17, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

If you are anything like me you enjoy close races. The divisional races have been a fun thing to watch this year but some of the teams are starting to pull away from their opponents. Roughly have the divisions have really tight races and the other half have 6+ game leads. I tend to pay closer attention to the close races, like the 0.5 game lead in the AL East. Another close race that I am following is the National League MVP race and it’s anybody’s race to win at the moment but Colorado Rockies star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki could very well be holding the trophy.

Yes, Tulowitzki plays for a team that is 10 games below .500 and 13 games out of the NL West lead, but that should not be a factor in deciding on who should be the league MVP. Tulowitzki is currently hitting .305/.373/.548 with 25 homeruns, 32 doubles, 9 stolen bases, an OPS+ of 135, wRC+ of 141, and wOBA of .393. And please do not bring up the fact he plays in Coors field. He has hit .309/.378/.567 at home and .300/.367/.529 on the road. He is not Carlos Gonzalez.

As you can see, the man is an offensive force to be feared and he plays arguably the most difficult position on the diamond outside of catcher. And by the way, he plays shortstop better than almost anybody in the game. He ranks first among all shortstops (5th overall) in dWAR with +1.5 and first among all NL shortstops with +10.7 UZR. To put it simply he is the best offensive and defensive player at shortstop. Tulowitzki also ranks 2nd in the NL in fWAR with +6.1 and 3rd in rWAR at +5.4.

One could easily make a case for Justin Upton who leads the NL in fWAR with +6.4 and is hitting a similar .305/.378/.561 with 25 homeruns and 34 doubles and has 18 stolen bases but plays right field and although UZR loves him at +12.3 but dWAR has him at -0.6. If he’s somewhere in the middle then he loses a bit of value. From what I have seen he is probably closer to +5 UZR which would still put him in the MVP discussion. But the biggest problem I have with Upton is his home/road split. He is hitting a robust .359/.429/.658 at home and a pedestrian .250/.324/.461 on the road.

Matt Kemp is another who has a legitimate case. He leads all in rWAR with +7.1 and it’s not even close with Ryan Braun 2nd at +5.7 rWAR. Kemp is hitting .320/.394/.577 with 28 homeruns, 24 doubles, 32 stolen bases, an OPS+ and wRC+ of 170, and a wOBA of .419 but his defense is bad at -6.5 UZR but dWAR has him at +0.5. If you believe he is above average on defense in center then you need to get your eyes checked. He’s much closer to his UZR total than his dWAR total. Even with poor defense I could still see him winning the MVP and I would be ok with that.

Shane Victorino has an impressive +5.7 fWAR and +4.9 rWAR and is hitting .312/.388/.541 with 13 homeruns, 20 doubles, 12 triples, and 15 stolen bases with an OPS+ of 150. wRC+ of 158, and wOBA of .407, and plays a plus center field with a +0.5 dWAR and +6.5 UZR. There are so many good cases for the award right now. You can even throw Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Andrew McCutchen, Joey Votto, and if you like pitchers for MVP then Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee have legit cases.

There is no clear cut winner for National League MVP at this point, and that is that way I like it. I prefer to watch the race go down to the final week but if I was forced to pick a winner today it would be a very close call between two guys on losing teams named Troy Tulowitzki and Matt Kemp with Tulo most likely taking home the prize. Anything can happen, though, with a month and a half left of regular season baseball.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

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2011 AL West Preview

Posted on March 27, 2011 by mikemcginnis

1. Texas Rangers

The Good: The Rangers are a young talented team that has emphasized pitching over offense and this group has not hit the ceiling yet. They may have one of the best offenses in the game with MVP Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz (a MVP caliber player), Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus and having 3 guys to play all 8 positions and DH with David Murphy, Mike Napoli and Mr. Ranger Michael Young. Adding Adrian Beltre was a smart move because he helps improve a shoddy Rangers defense and will benefit greatly from hitting in Texas with this lineup. The Rangers have talent on the mound as well with CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Darren O’Day and Neftali Feliz.

The Bad: How does this team fare without Cliff Lee? Granted, Lee was average in the regular season with the Rangers but, he will be sorely missed. Asking to have CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis  replicate 2010, something they have never done before that, while also anchoring the rotation is the biggest key to the Rangers season. If this duo falters the Rangers are not winning this division. The bullpen has talent and plenty of nice numbers but, it needs to show more poise as they were occasionally hit up in big spots last season.

What to Look For: The balance of playing time and productivity of the Napoli-Murphy-Young trio will be interesting to watch. If RHP Tanner Scheppers and OF Engel Beltre continue to shine in the minors they could get a call up. Is Brandon Webb OK? Is he still the best sinker ball pitcher in the game? That is something to watch. Also, the learning curves of Tommy Hunter, Matt Harrison and most importantly, Derek Holland will be critical to the Rangers success.

Projection: While maybe a tick below last year’s bunch the Rangers are plenty good and could be even better. The pitching has to fall into place, like any team. It would be a wise choice not to bet against this bunch.

89-73 (1st Place)

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Good: The Angels can go toe to toe with anyone with starting pitching. Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro are a pretty safe quartet to keep you in games. Although it had some problems last year the bullpen has promise too considering it added Hisanori Takahashi and Scott Downs to go along with Fernando Rodney and Kevin Jepsen.

The Bad: The Angels were embarrassed in free agency this past winter and had to take on the overly bloated Vernon Wells contract. The Halos have major question marks with C Jeff Mathis and 3B Maicer Izturis. Both guys are usually bench guys with little power and are being forced into everyday roles. While it is good that the Angels are giving kids 1B Mark Trumbo and CF Peter Burjos shots at the big leagues they also need these kids to produce right away which maybe too much to ask. The Halos can only hope and wonder when 1B Kendry Morales can come back and contribute after ankle surgery. Morales is the most vital cog to the Angels offense.

What to Watch For: The Angels need top prospect C Hank Conger to make the break through to the Show sooner rather than later. The same can be said for OF Mike Trout. The outfield trio of Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu gets another year older with the same measure of offensive expectation to produce. Can they all still do it? Can Erick Aybar replicate his 2009 season or is the player we all saw last year? The bullpen while upgraded, has major issues.

Projection: Age, bullpen problems and consistent offense, not something you are used to hearing with a Mike Scioscia team. The Angels have plenty of questions but, they also have plenty of starting pitching and a good manager. If the Rangers falter don’t be too surprised to see the Angels somehow in the mix to take the AL West flag.

86-76 (2nd Place)

3. Oakland A’s

The Good: The A’s have one of the  best starting rotations in the AL when all healthy. Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez can confound and hold down offenses most nights. The great thing about the staff is there aren’t all the same type of pitcher each one is different and has a different wrinkle throwing offenses off.  Adding OF’s David DeJesus, Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui was a major boost to a punchless offense. The A’s also have a very good bullpen as well with Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes, Mike Wuertz, Brad Ziegler and closer Andrew Bailey.

The Bad: The A’s offense got off the hook in 2010 because the Mariners offense was so historically bad. This team needs home runs desperately because it was powerless in 2010. The A’s have to hope the additions of Matsui, Willingham and DeJesus pay off. Also, having OF prospects Chris Carter and Michael Taylor break through to the MLB Level full time would help too.

What to Look For: If the A’s stay healthy and pitch to their potential and possibly get Rich Harden healthy throwing strikes out of the bullpen then look out, this team could win the division their pitching is that good.

Projection: A down year for the AL West means the time is ripe for the A’s to strike. This is a good team that just needs more runs to be scored. Billy Beane did a solid job upgrading this team and while they are picked here at 3rd place I think if Texas loses this division it’s more likely because the A’s win it not the Angels.

85-77 (3rd Place)

The Good: A very limited selection here. The Mariners do have the reigning CY Young Award winner who is soon to be 25 in Felix Hernandez. The Marniers also have a future Hall of Famer in Ichiro Suzuki who is good for a .310 plus batting average, 30 plus steals, 200 hundred plus hits and a Gold Glove in rightfield. The Mariners boast a pretty good defensive team as well.

The Bad: The offense was so bad last year it was epically and historically atrocious. Scary thing is the only thing the Mariners did was add Jack Cust to the everyday lineup which means a lot more of unneeded strikeouts but, some much need walks and homeruns. The Mariners desperately need 2009 years from Franklin Gutierrez and Chone Figgins not the bad 2010 years they had. The bullpen had its problems last year as well. You can add David Aardsma as a guy needed to have a year like he did in 2009 not last year. Jason Vargas and Doug Fister were OK for this rotation in 2010. It would be nice to see Erik Bedard just get on the mound in 2011 doing his Carl Pavano Yankees impression for the Mariners. This staff doesn’t have a real compliment to Felix Hernandez which is a problem.

What to Look For: The Mariners desperately need 1B Justin Smoak and LF Michael Saunders to figure it out and impact the everyday lineup immediately if this team has any expectation to be decent. You better add prospects LHP Mauricio Robles, RHP Michael Pineda and 2B Dustin Ackley to that list as well. That’s a lot of things that have to happen for things to be good this year in Seattle.

Projection: The offense couldn’t be much worse than it was in 2010 could it? Or could it be?  This is an odd year and the book says the Mariners will be 85 plus win team if you follow their past 5 years. I don’t know how they will pull that off this year but, then again no else saw them being good in 2007 and 2009 either. I don’t forsee them being a .500 or better team this year. But, then again I have been wrong many times before.

65-97 (4th Place)

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