30 Players, 30 Teams, 30 Predictions

Posted on April 1, 2013 by David Kerr

Uptons

With the 2013 Major League Baseball season imminent, I wanted to give thirty predictions involving one player from each team. These predictions are from a Fantasy Baseball point of view. I will revisit these predictions after the season is over and see how close I came or how far off I was with each one.

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2012 All-Fantasy Bust Team

Posted on January 9, 2013 by David Kerr

Lincecum

This is part two of a three part series that reviews the 2012 Fantasy Baseball season. In the first installment, I gave my “All-Fantasy” team. This round will be my “Bust” squad followed by the “Over-achievers” in the last installment. I’ll rundown each position and add Honorable Mentions or in the case of this column, (Dis)honorable Mentions! (more…)

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Many Met Fans Surprised By Valentine’s Failure in Boston

Posted on October 24, 2012 by Daniel Marino

It wasn’t supposed to be this way.  Bobby Valentine is still revered by New York Met fans.  How did things go so wrong for Valentine in Boston, while it went so right during his tenure with the Mets?  Most Met fans would still take Bobby V back in a New York minute.  From 1997-2001, Valentine’s Met teams finished in first or second place.  He took the 1999 and 2000 Met teams to the playoffs.  Many Met fans, myself included, believe that Valentine is one of the game’s best strategists.  His epic battles with Bobby Cox are a part of Met lore…even if Cox did win most of those battles. (more…)

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Red Sox Reboot Creates Many Questions

Posted on August 25, 2012 by Andrew Martin

Boston Red Sox fans have agitated for the better part of the 2012 season for the team to facilitate major change as a way to address their disappointing play since the end of last year. News reports of a completed earth shattering trade suggest that the front office has finally heeded those wishes. Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett, and Nick Punto have been jettisoned to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a raft of A- to B+ level prospects (Rubby De La Rosa, Jerry Sands, Allen Webster, and Ivan De Jesus) and veteran first baseman James Loney, making it the most significant trade in terms of money in baseball history. The Red Sox are expected to send back only a fraction of the remaining money owed to the departing players, making it a textbook salary dump. This trade is the equivalent of the Red Sox hitting the reset button and make their immediate and distant futures complete unknowns and fraught with questions. (more…)

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Gonzalez Drastically Improves the Dodgers

Posted on August 25, 2012 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

As part of a blockbuster trade the Los Angeles Dodgers have acquired former Boston Red Sox All-Star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez to their 13th ranked 87 wRC+ in the National League.

The Dodgers’ pitching has been holding down the fort for this contender but the  offense has been dragging them down and making them look more like pretenders than contenders. But that all changes now as they add some key offensive components as they make a push for the playoffs and improve their team for the near future. (more…)

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How the Red Sox Can Build Off a Lost Season

Posted on August 6, 2012 by Andrew Martin

With about two months left in the 2012 season, the record of the Boston Red Sox stands at 54-55, a mere 5 games behind the leaders for the two American League wildcard spots. Although not ideal, many teams would feel comfortable being in such a position with so many games left to play, but for all intents and purposes the Red Sox season is already over- heck it never really began. They should swallow their pride and start formulating a long term plan to get them back to annual contender status, and away from the group of pretenders who have been trotting out this year.

This is not overreaction in light of the team blowing yet another late-inning lead in Saturday night’s game against the Minnesota Twins. It’s the stark reality of a talented, but fatally flawed team who has played some of the most passionless baseball in recent memory. This is not a team that is going to get hot late in the year and make a run like the Cardinals of a year ago. There is no switch that can be flipped that will undo the mess that is the 2012 Red Sox. They need to carefully plot a course of action to help them regain their status as one of the best teams in baseball. Here are a few suggested initial moves to help facilitate that process. (more…)

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How to Get the Most Out of the Red Sox Lineup

Posted on May 14, 2012 by Andrew Martin

With a little more than a fifth of the 2012 season having been played, you would be hard-pressed to find someone who didn’t agree with the assertion that the Red Sox stink. In particular, their pitching has been terrible, ranking near the bottom of the American League in team ERA and hits, home runs, and walks allowed. Accordingly, their offense is the primary weapon that they can utilize to win some games. Their lineup has been productive thus far- second in the league in hits and runs scored- they have been beset by injuries to key players like Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, and Kevin Youkilis. While those players are out there are still ways for Bobby Valentine to maximize the value of the players he currently has and put out a batting order to maximize where his regulars have hit the best in the past.

Valentine has a reputation for being more of an old school manager; relying on gut feelings and hot streaks to help direct his team. By looking at statistics he would find a batting lineup that he has not used yet, but history shows could optimize the bats of his current starters. While this historically ideal lineup would do nothing to cure the ills of the pitching staff, it would give the Red Sox even more ability to bludgeon their opponents in the slugfests that look certain to be persist this summer.

Historically Ideal Red Sox Line Up: (more…)

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2012 – The Year of the Laboratory?

Posted on February 22, 2012 by William J. Tasker

There are a surprising number of experiments going on in Major League Baseball for this coming season. Players are trying out new positions, relief pitchers are trying to be starting pitchers. Heck, even the Yankees are trying to be cost conscious. Strange things are happening in a training camp near you. With all that is happening, you will need a scorecard to track all the goings on. We at MLB Dirt are happy to help. What follows are the experiments happening all over baseball plus this writer’s take on whether the lab results will be positive or negative. Here we go. Got your pencil handy?

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Epstein Should Trade for Crawford

Posted on October 24, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Everybody has a plan for Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs. Some of the better ones involve filling the front office and almost all of them involve trading Carlos Zambrano and Alfonso Soriano.

There is an overwhelming feeling that Epstein will almost forego the 2012 season to perform a minor rebuilding effort and take a shot at 2013 and beyond. If that happens, Cubs fans can kiss goodbye to Carlos Pena, Aramis Ramirez, and possibly Marlon Byrd while bidding a fond farewell to the aforementioned Zambrano and Soriano.

I, for one, think Epstein can put a solid team out there in 2012 while doing a minor rebuilding effort at the same time and I think his first move should be to acquire Carl Crawford from the Boston Red Sox. That’s right, the same Carl Crawford that is due $122M over the next six seasons.

Acquiring Crawford from the Red Sox would fill two potential agendas at the same time. The first would be the acquisition of a top talent that can help now and in the near future. The second would be the trading of Alfonso Soriano.

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Ellsbury Could be Fantasy and Regular Season MVP

Posted on August 8, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

I remember doing fantasy drafts in 2008 where people were predicting a kid named Jacoby Ellsbury to hit over .300 with 15+ homeruns and 50+ stolen bases solely based on his first stint in the majors. The 127 plate appearance stint saw Ellsbury hit .353 with 3 homeruns and 9 stolen bases. Red Sock fans and fantasy owners were drooling at the potential future of this kid.

I also remember scouts saying there is no way Ellsbury will hit 10 homeruns, let alone 15 or more but the speed was legit. Well, as usual, the scouts were right. Ellsbury went on to hit .280 with 9 homeruns and 50 steals in 609 PAs. A great line, especially for fantasy, but not the Carl Crawford production fantasy owners were hoping for.

Ellsbury would go on to 2009 and have an even better fantasy campaign but fantasy owners seemed to have cooled on him a bit, realizing he was not Carl Crawford. He hit .301 with 8 homeruns and stole 70 bases in 693 PAs this time around. This left fantasy owners, who slightly overdrafted him in 2008, kicking themselves for undervaluing him in 2009.

Now that owner’s expectations of his power were tempered, Ellsbury’s stock had gone back up and fantasy thanks to a high average and tons of steals. In 2010 we were seeing Ellsbury’s name called very early and owners were drooling at the idea of a 10 homer 70 steal season with a .300 average. Well, injuries led to Ellsbury getting a total of 84 PAs of a .192 average and no homeruns and 7 steals and fantasy owners were left with a wasted high draft pick.

Ellsbury’s stock had fallen again. He was drafted near the 5th round, on average, in 2011 fantasy drafts, and owners were hoping for something close to 2008 when he hit .280 with 9 homeruns and 50 steals. Well, owners who were lucky enough to land Ellsbury have the current fantasy MVP and possible regular season MVP.

Ellsbury currently ranks tied for first in ESPN’s fantasy player rater with Matt Kemp and he ranks 3rd in the majors in fWAR with +5.9, behind only Jose Bautista and teammate Dustin Pedroia. His current triple-slash line is .318/.374/.517 and he has defied all scouts and surprised all fantasy owners with 19 homeruns. You read that correctly, 19 homeruns, almost doubling his 20 career homeruns coming in to the season. Oh, he also still steals bases when he is not rounding them and has 31 on the season. His offense is not the only thing bringing him value. He has a +7.5 UZR in center field with 5 assists and no errors.

Ellsbury is making the 2008 fantasy owners predictions come true only four years after predicted. Ellsbury’s 2011 season is going to force two owners to pay big for this potential MVP. In fantasy you will have to use a 1st round pick on him or drop some serious cash in auction formats and the Red Sox front office will look to lock him up to an extension but with free agency looming in 2014 and Scott Boras as his agent the Red Sox will have to go big or be happy with the few years of arbitration Ellsbury has left. The price may be steep for a guy who’s value has been a rollercoaster but can fantasy owners and Red Sox brass afford to let this fantasy and regular season MVP candidate pass them by? I don’t think so.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

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