My 2012 Predictions: NL Central

Posted on March 29, 2012 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

I am continuing my 2012 prediction series by revealing my NL Central standings and adding a few positive and negative predictions for each team. In case you missed it, I have already revealed my AL East Predictions, AL Central Predictions, AL West Predictions, and NL East Predictions and we, as a staff, revealed some of our overall MLB predictions. Enjoy. (more…)

Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis, Fantasy | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Stan Musial Award – National League MVP

Posted on October 21, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Picking the National League MVP was almost as difficult as picking the American League MVP.

It came down to a fight between two main candidates whose stats were similar in most areas.

With that said, here is my ballot for the Baseball Bloggers Alliance NL Stan Musial MVP award:

(more…)

Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Was 2011 a Career Year for Brandon Phillips?

Posted on October 12, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Brandon Phillips is a two-time All-Star and a two-time Gold Glove winner. Phillips is also a rare member of the 30 homerun 30 steal club as a second baseman. Ian Kinsler and Alfonso Soriano are the only other second basemen in the history of the game to have at least 30 homeruns and 30 steals in the same season at the keystone position.

Phillips entered 2011 in what could be the final year of his contract. The Cincinnati Reds hold a club option for $12M with a $1M buyout. If I am the Reds this is an easy option for me to pick up with Phillips coming off potentially the best season of his career.

Phillips hit .300/.353/.457 over 674 plate appearances in 2011. The average and on-base percentage were both career highs and the slugging percentage was the second highest mark in his career.

Phillips hit a career high 38 doubles to go with 18 homeruns, two triples, and 14 stolen bases. His combined offense marks gave him a .351 wOBA which was the second best mark of his career behind the .354 he posted when he hit 30 homeruns in 2007.

(more…)

Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis | Tagged: , , , | Leave a Comment »

My NL All-Star Infield Reserves List

Posted on July 1, 2011 by Michael Schwartze

Here is my NL All-Star Infield Reserve’s list. Make sure you check out my NL starting lineup as well.

Catcher: I selected Brian McCann as my starter and here are my two reserves:

Miguel Montero: Montero has had him self a nice little season so far. He has a 2.4 WAR, ranking second amongst NL catchers. He is hitting .276/.348/.472 with a wOBA of .357. He has 9 homeruns and 40 RBI to go with as well.

Ramon Hernandez: While Hernandez has pretty much been splitting time with Ryan Hanigant this year, he is having himself a solid year. In 177 PA this year, he is hitting .306/.367/.506 with 8 homeruns and a wOBA of .374. He has a 1.5 WAR and a .200 ISO.

First Base: My starting first baseman is Prince Fielder

Joey Votto: Votto has had himself a terrific year so far. He has a 3.5 WAR ranking second amongst NL first baseman and he is hitting .316/.440/.503. He has 11 homeruns and 50 RBI with a wOBA of .411.

Gaby Sanchez: This spot would go to Albert Pujols but it does not look like he will be back by the All-Star game. Nonetheless, Gaby Sanchez is having a terrific year and he is very deserving of this spot. He has a 2.6 WAR, ranking third amongst NL first baseman which is better than that of Pujols. He is hitting .298/.372/.488 with 13 homeruns and 45 RBI.

Second Base: I previously selected Danny Espinosa as the starting second baseman.

Rickie Weeks: Weeks is having a terrific year. He leads all NL second baseman in WAR (3.6) and is hitting .290/.358/.495 with 14 homeruns and an ISO of .206. He just missed out on being my starting second baseman

Brandon Phillips: For this pick I was leaning between Phillips and Kelly Johnson but I am giving Phillips the edge. He ranks third in WAR (2.7) amongst NL second baseman. He is hitting .298/.351/416 with 6 homeruns and 43 RBI. What hurt Johnson’s case was his horrific 32.5 K%, .213 AVG, and .292 OBP.

Third Baseman: I gave Ryan Roberts the nod at third base

Ty Wigginton: Wigginton has played all over this year for theRockies, but the majority of his appearances have been at third. He is hitting .267/.317/.510 with a wOBA of .362. His SLG leads all NL third baseman and his wOBA is tied for first. He also has 12 homeruns which is the highest amongst NL third baseman and the highest ISO of .243 as well.

Ryan Zimmerman: Zimmerman started off the season very well; hitting .357/.486/.536 in the months of March and April but injuries began to affect his performance and sidelined him for quite some time. His numbers are not quite all-star material, but Zimmerman is still one of the top third basemen in the league and he deserves to be on the all-star team.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes easily won the starting shortstop job for me.

Troy Tulowitzki: Jose Reyes has performed out of his mind this year but Tulo has been having a very nice season himself too. He has a 3.1 WAR ranking 2nd amongst NL shortstop’s and he leads all shortstop’s in homeruns with 14. He is hitting .272/.336/.382 with an impressive 50 RBI and .210 ISO as well.

Starlin Castro: Castro started of the season on a tear. He settled down a little but is still hitting .319/.349/.443 with a wOBA of .353. His 1.8 WAR ranks 5th amongst NL shortstops but it is only 0.2 wins behind 4th place and 0.3 wins behind 3rd. He has 10 stolen bases as well as 107 hits which ranks second behind Jose Reyes.

Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Keystone All-Stars

Posted on June 30, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

With my starting rosters already posted and my back up catchers selected yesterday, I will move on to the keystone position and, I won’t lie, the American League was incredibly tough to narrow down.

National League

Danny Espinosa (WAS) – Back on June 20th I named Espinosa as my Washington Nationals representative. This still holds true, although he may not be the lone representative but that is for another post and another position. He is currently hitting .238/.323/.465 with 15 homeruns and 9 stolen bases. Add 12 doubles, 4 triples, a +4.2 UZR, the best Bsr among second basemen (+2.5), and a 3.0 fWAR, and you have a pretty easy choice for an All-Star.

Brandon Phillips (CIN) – Phillips leads all NL second basemen in UZR (+4.6) and is 2nd in base running (+2.2 Bsr). He is hitting .295/.347/.411 with 6 homeruns and 4 stolen bases. Not the power-speed combo we are used to from Phillips but the .347 OBP marks the highest of his career for any season with more than 36 plate appearances. Kelly Johnson is having a good defensive season (+3.5) and showing a good power-speed combo with 13 homeruns and 8 stolen bases but he has a .289 OBP and a -2.2 Bsr and misses the cut.

American League

Howie Kendrick (LAA) – Kendrick spent a little time on the disables list but that has not stopped him from being one of the best second basemen in the game. He is 2nd in fWAR (3.7) among second basemen and has the 2nd highest total UZR (+10.1) in the Majors. He is currently hitting .305/.362/.477 and leads all AL second basemen with a .372 wOBA and 138 wRC+. Kendrick also adds a +1.4 Bsr to his 8 homeruns, 18 doubles, 2 triples, and 8 stolen bases.

Dustin Pedroia (BOS) – In possibly the toughest decision I had to make I chose Pedroia over both Ian Kinsler and Robinson Cano. Pedroia leads all second basemen in OBP (.388), BB rate (15.7%), in UZR at second base (+9.0), and is tied for 1st in stolen bases (15). His +3.6 fWAR ranks 3rd in the AL among second basemen and sits just ahead of Kinsler’s +3.4 and well ahead of Cano’s +2.3. With all due respect to Cano and his 14 homeruns and .502 SLUG it was Kinsler that really made this the toughest choice. He ranks in the top three in almost every category but thanks to a weak BABIP he has a weak .243 AVG and he misses the cut in favor of Pedroia who ranks 1st in too many categories to pass up.

This does not mean that Kinsler or Cano are completely off the roster. They both have legit cases and as I research the positions further I may find room for at least one of them. Stay tuned.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis | Tagged: , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

Danny Espinosa Should Be an All-Star

Posted on June 20, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Question: Who leads all National League second basemen in fWAR? Go ahead, take a quick guess. The answer is Rickie Weeks, who should be starting at the position in the All-Star game. But the man who is second is none other than Danny Espinosa of the Washington Nationals who should be representing the Nationals in this year’s Mid-Summer Classic.

Some may look at the offensive lines of the rest of the Nationals’ players and suggest Michael Morse represent the team in the All-Star game but I would have to disagree with them. Sure, Morse is having a fantastic season hitting .309/.357/.564 with a wOBA of .391 but he has a -3.0 UZR and is in a deep crop of candidates to play first base in the All-Star game. Among second basemen there are only two with an fWAR above 1.8 and one is Danny Espinosa at 2.8 fWAR. There are five first basemen with an fWAR above that number and Morse is not one of them, ranking 6th at 1.6 fWAR.

Espinosa’s line of .237/.321/.470 with a wOBA of .351 may not thrill a lot of people but, among National League second basemen, he ranks 2nd in Slugging percentage and is 50 points higher than Kelly Johnson who is in 3rd place, he ranks 2nd in homeruns with 13, sandwiched between Weeks and Johnson again, his 8 stolen bases are tied with Johnson for most by a second baseman, he ranks 2nd in wOBA, his wRC+ of 120 ranks 2nd, and his ISO of .233 ranks 1st. He is doing all this while having the 2nd lowest BABIP among all qualified second basemen in the NL.

While you can see the value in the homeruns and stolen bases, we seem to miss where he gets a lot his value from. He ranks 1st among all NL second basemen in UZR with +4.9 and is 1st in BSR (base running) at +2.2. There are many that believe he could slide over to shortstop with no problems once Rice star Anthony Rendon is ready to play for the Nationals. I happen to agree with them and think he should slide over there to start the 2012 season.

One could argue that Jordan Zimmerman belongs because of his All-Star caliber season and if the Nationals only have one representative in the game that he could be the one. His 2.3 fWAR ranks 7th among all NL pitchers and the All-Star teams carries more pitchers than it does second basemen and Espinosa might be the odd man out if they only choose two with Brandon Phillips likely to be voted in and Weeks being the best second baseman in the game so far this year.

For me, the answer is clear, Espinosa belongs. Whether he is the lone representative of the Nationals or not, he has had the 2nd best season of any NL second baseman and is a rare player to find that combines power, speed, and top of the line defense at a middle infield spot. He is officially on my All-Star roster for 2011.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert

Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis | Tagged: , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Random Predictions – NL

Posted on March 30, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Continuing on from yesterday’s AL Predictions are my NL predictions. I honestly cannot wait to see the reactions when I tell everyone that…

Atlanta Braves – Nate McLouth is going to revert to 2009 form and go 20/20 with a .350 OBP. Craig Kimbrel will save 20+ games and strike out 100+ as part of the best relief squad in the Majors. Chipper Jones will hit .300 in his final season. Mike Minor will replace Brandon Beachy as the 5th starter by June.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Russell Branyan will set a career high by hitting 35 or more homeruns this season. That’s right! All he needs is playing time and I predict he will gain 3B eligibilty. Joe Saunders will have an ERA north of 5.00. David Hernandez will lead the team in saves with less than 20.

Chicago Cubs – Tyler Colvin will get 500+ plate appearances but will not hit more than 25 homers. There will be more “head case” headlines about Matt Garza than there will be about Carlos Zambrano who will be the better pitcher of the two this year.

Cincinnati Reds – 2010 was more Brandon Phillips norm going forward and he will continue a decline offensively to the tune of .260/.320/.420 at best. The starting rotation will be called overrated by September. Drew Stubbs will be more valuable when factoring ADP than B.J. Upton in fantasy. Jay Bruce will hit 30+ homers but lose defensive value and not be more valuable than he was last year according to fWAR. Aroldis Chapman will finish with less than 5 saves and an ERA above-4.00.

Colorado Rockies – Troy Tulowitzki will win the MVP and be worth close to 8.0 fWAR. Dexter Fowler will break out this year. Jose Lopez still will not hit and be a terrible defender and Ty Wigginton will club 20+ homers. Jason Hammel will finally match his performance with his FIP and post an ERA below-4.00.

Florida Marlins – Mike Stanton will hit 35 homeruns and be very humble about it. Anibal Sanchez will pitch 200+ innings of 3.25 or lower ERA and 175+ strikeouts. Omar Infante will hit closer to his career slash-line of .274/.319/.395 than his last two year’s .316/.359/.408. The 3B position will struggle to combine for a positive fWAR.

Houston Astros – Wilton Lopez will end up with double-digit saves. Brett Wallace will hit .285/.345/.450 and give the Astros hope for the future. The shortstop position will the weakest in the league offensively. Jordan Lyles will be up and be their best pitcher after the trade deadline.

Los Angeles Dodgers – Juan Uribe will set another career high in homers with 25 this season. Jonathan Broxton may lose the closer role but he will still strike out 90+ with an ERA below-3.00. Matt Kemp will be worth +5.0 fWAR or better. Left field will be a revolving door that will never stop and be lucky to produce at a higher level than replacement. A.J. Ellis is the best catcher on the roster but will see the least amount of time.

Milwaukee Brewers – Shaun Marcum will mail a thank you card to the Blue Jays for trading him out of the AL East and will post 200+ innings of 3.25 or lower ERA and 175+ strikeouts. Carlos Gomez and Nyjer Morgan will combine for a wRC of 85 or lower. Jonathan Lucroy and George Kottaras will combine to hit 20 homers.

New York Mets – Carlos Beltran will reach 500 PAs and hit .280/.370/.470 or better. Angel Pagan will again be worth more than 4.0 fWAR. Francisco Rodriguez will not meet his Games Finished clause wheter he finishes the year out with the Mets or not. The Mets will have a fire sale in July and post a better record in the 2nd half and play “spoiler” to postseason contenders.

Philadelphia Phillies – Ryan Howard continues his Cecil Fielder impersonation and hits worse than he did in 2010. Ben Francisco will hit 20 homers and steal 15 bases. Roy Halladay will post even better numbers than last year.

Pittsburgh Pirates – Andrew McCutchen will hit 20 homers and steal 40 bases. Joel Hanrahan will save 30 games and strike out 100+. James McDonald will be the only starting pitcher with more than 2.0 fWAR and he will have higher than 3.0 fWAR.

San Diego Padres – Tim Stauffer will log 175+ innings of sub-3.50 ERA and 125+ strikeouts. Brad Hawpe will lose his starting job by mid-June and struggle to hit above .250 with little-to-no power. Jason Bartlett will hit at least .285/.345/.425 and steal 20+ bases.

San Francisco Giants – Aubrey Huff will get off to a slow start and everyone will scream for Brandon Belt to get playing time. Which he will… in June, and contend for the Rookie of the Year Award by hitting close to .300 with 15+ homers. Jonathan Sanchez will be the best pitcher on the team.

St. Louis Cardinals – Colby Rasmus will hit 30+ homers and steal 15+ bases. Lance Berkman will bounce back to hit .275/.375/.475 with 20+ homers. Kyle McClellan will log 175+ innings of sub-4.00 ERA with 125+ strikeouts. Jason Motte will save 10+ games and record 70+ strikeouts.

Washington Nationals – Michael Morse will hit more homers than Jayson Werth and Adam LaRoche. Livan Hernandez will post an ERA north of 5.00 and allow 225+ hits in less than 200 innings. Matt Stairs will hit a homerun for the Nats, his 12th different team.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

Filed under: Fantasy | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 4 Comments »

2011 NL Central Preview

Posted on March 26, 2011 by mikemcginnis

2011 NL Central Preview

1. Cincinnati Reds

The Good: The Reds have a solid combo of strong bats and strong starting pitching. Bronson Arroyo, Edison Volquez, Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake form a formidible rotation. While the offense is spearheaded by triple crown candidate/MVP Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce. Two things the Reds offense has is power with some speed.

The Bad: The back end of the bullpen is a cause for concern. Francisco Cordero has logged a lot of innings the past few years and looked like he was tired the 2nd half of last year. The Dusty Baker effect once again if you ask me. I am not buying all the hype surrounding Aroldis Chapman. Chapman can throw 115MPH for all I am concerned but, his control, mechanics and lack of developed secondary pitches raise some flags. Realize, the Reds are now expected to win and will be targeted by other teams, that changes the perspective for the young Reds a lot. Another crucial question: Can Scott Rolen stay healthy and productive for 2 straight years?

What to Look For: The continued development Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, Edison Volquez, Travis Wood and Mike Leake will determine how far the Reds will progress this season. The Reds are following the right path in terms of a successful long term plan.

Projection: The Reds definitely seem to be trying to follow the Phillies blueprint: A solid starting rotation, good defense and plenty of power bats with some speed. The Reds weren’t a fluke last year and this year they should prove that.

92-70 (1st Place)

Milwaukee Brewers

The Good: The Brewers made massive upgrades to a pitching rotation that sorely needed it. 2009 1-2 starters Yovanni Gallardo and Randy Wolf get bumped down to 3 and 4 to make room for new ace Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. These were two very high impact moves by the Brew Crew and I am sure Marcum and Greinke will benefit from pitching in the NL and having strong offensive support. While being dominated by right handers, the Brewers can score runs. The offensive attack of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Casey McGehee and Rickie Weeks is very impressive.

The Bad: The Brewers defense can be down right dreadful and that will cost them some games. John Axford, Zach Braddock, 41 year old Takashi Saito and Kameron Loe will have to shore up a bullpen that had plenty of leaks last season. Another critical question: Can Carlos Gomez be an everyday CF?

What to Look For: If the right deal comes along would the Brewers deal Prince Fielder and move Mat Gamel to 1B? That should be interesting to see. Also, the development of John Axford and Zach Braddock to the late inning roles is something the Brewers need to take shape if they want to be serious contenders.

Projection: If the Reds falter the Brewers are most likely taking the division. The Brewers are taking their shot this year realizing it most likely is their last with big slugging 1B Prince Fielder. Should be an exciting summer in Milwaukee.

89-73 (2nd place)

Chicago Cubs

The Good: The Cubs offense should be able to produce runs with the likes of Aramis Ramirez, Starlin Castro, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena, Marlon Byrd, Geovany Soto and Tyler Colvin. The Cubs front 3 starting pitchers of Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster give their fans plenty of reason to think they can contend and Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner are not bad options out of the 4 and 5 spots.

The Bad: The Cubs have been awful at situational hitting the past few years and adding more strikeouts with Carlos Pena will not help. Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez looked old and worn out last year which is not a good sign. Middle relief was a disaster for the Cubs last year and outside of Carlos Marmol the closer, there are too many question marks for the Cubs.

What to Look For: Will be interesting to see how Cubs skipper Mike Quade is able to keep the usually hotheaded Carlos Zambrano and Matt Garza on track. This is a transition year for the Cubs. I strongly believe Carlos Pena is a 1 year rental before the Cubs land Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau or Prince Fielder to play 1B.

Prediction: The Cubs will shine and have their moments but, unless they get some critical big hits, cut down on the strikeouts and get decent middle relief help they are only a decent team not a good team.

84-78 (3rd Place)

St. Louis Cardinals

The Good: The offense should be OK considering it has Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Colby Rasmus at its core. Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook and Jaime Garcia should help steady a questionable rotation.

The Bad: Plenty. Adam Wainwright and his Cy Young Award type numbers are gone for the year and more importantly, this could be Albert Pujols last year as a Cardinal. This is a major year of flux for the Cards who could also deal free agent to be Chris Carpenter at the trade deadline if they fall out of contention. Is RF Lance Berkman still an everyday player? What kind of production do the Cardinals get from the middle infield of Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker? Can the Cardinals recover from losing Adam Wainwright for an entire season?

What to Look For: If Carpenter, Tony LaRussa and Pujols leave within the next year the Cards could be in a full blown rebuilding phase. Dave Duncan is one of the best pitching coaches ever with all the pitching projects he has taken on and transformed. Duncan will have to use all of his skills this season to help the Crads overcome the loss of Adam Wainwright. Fireballer Carlos Martinez may arrive into the bullpen for the Cardinals this summer.

Projection: It already looks like this could be a rough year for the Cardinals will all the questions left unanswered. Where does this team go past 2011 is the most important question of them all.

79-83 (4th Place)

Houston Astros

The Good: The Astros GM Ed Wade did a heck of a job rebuilding the core of this team midseason in 2009 and finally has the Astros younger and cheaper then they have been in a while. 1B Brett Wallace, RF Hunter Pence and 3B Chris Johnson help give some much needed youth into the Astros everyday lineup. They may not jump out at you but, J.A. Happ, Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris give Houston a decent starting rotation. Closer Brandon Lyon, Fernando Abad, Wilton Lopez,  and Mark Melancon are pretty decent options out of the bullpen too.

The Bad: The Astros are still a ways off in terms of getting younger better position players and are stuck with some stopgap solution players in their middle infield. Also, the Astros are saddled with the bloated Carlos Lee contract. Losing young catcher Jason Castro for the year to a knee injury is a blow not easily recovered from either.

What to Look For: The Astros can only pray that Carlos Lee has a big first half and can convince someone crazy or desperate enough to take him off the Astros hands even for half price.

Projection: When you have pitching you can win or in the Astros case, be representable. The Astros need to find position players but, are heading in the right direction with their relatively young pitching.

73-89 (5th Place)

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Good: Well, at least the Pirates have some good talent in the field eveyday and should score some runs with CF Andrew McCutchen, 3B Pedro Alvarez, 2B Neil Walker and LF Jose Tabata. James McDonald and Ross Ohlendorf give the Pirates a prayer that they can give up less than 5-10 runs at least 2 days out of the week. Evan Meek, Chris Resop and Joel Hanrahan provide some actual relief for a bullpen that’s pretty rotten.

The Bad: Are you kidding me?!?!? Well, the worst is the ownership who cares nothing about the franchise or the fan base because they maintain the lowest MLB payroll while turning one of the highest profits. Pathetic. As a Pirates player you are encouraged to play your best because the sooner you do the sooner you are traded from the team. Hard to believe the Pirates share the same city as one of the NFL’s all time elite/successful franchises and a very successful NHL franchise as well. The Pirates pitching staff was abysmal last year. When you have the worst team ERA and you are not in the AL or playing half the time in Cincinnatti, Houston or Philadelphia (3 great band boxes) you have major issues. Oh, yeah, and if that was not bad enough, the Pirates have plenty of problems catching and throwing the baseball consistently in the field too.

What to Look For: To see the Pirates roll out a borderline MLB team and not lose a 100 games. MLB should assume ownership of this franchise because the Pirates front office is a disgrace.

Projection: See the past 18 years. Somehow I think they will only lose 98 games this year. Yet, I cannot substantiate why.

64-98 (6th Place)

Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

2011 Fantasy Rankings – Secondbasemen

Posted on March 5, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

Seconbase is surprisingly deep with 3-4 category players but also deep with injury prone stars, up-and-down former All-Stars, and the ever-hopeful “breakout” player. Gonna keep this one short and skip to the rankings.

Here are my rankings for seconbasemen:

Rank Player Tier
1 Robinson Cano 1
2 Chase Utley 1
3 Ian Kinsler 1
4 Dustin Pedroia 2
5 Dan Uggla 2
6 Rickie Weeks 2
7 Kelly Johnson 3
8 Ben Zobrist 3
9 Brandon Phillips 3
10 Martin Prado 3
11 Brian Roberts 3
12 Gordon Beckham 3
13 Aaron Hill 4
14 Ryan Raburn 4
15 Howie Kendrick 4
16 Chone Figgins 4
17 Neil Walker 4
18 Mike Aviles 4
19 Tsuyoshi Nishioka 4
20 Sean Rodriguez 5
21 Placido Polanco 5
22 Ty Wigginton 5
23 Juan Uribe 5
24 Reid Brignac 5
25 Eric Young Jr. 5
26 Alberto Callaspo 5
27 Orlando Hudson 5
28 Mark Ellis 5
29 Jed Lowrie 5
30 Danny Espinosa 5
31 Carlos Guillen 6
32 Freddy Sanchez 6
33 Ryan Theriot 6
34 Omar Infante 6
35 Dustin Ackley 6

 

Three I’d Reach For Reason
Ian Kinsler Injuries always hold him back but he has potential be the #1 2B in fantasy. 30/30 in 2009.
Ben Zobrist Ugly BABIP in 2010 and could be a 20/20 guy that will contribute in 4-5 categories.
Ryan Raburn Should be a very solid 4 category play.

 

Three I’ll Let Pass Reason
Robinson Cano I see him going in the top 15 in a lot of drafts and I would rather wait on Utley, Kinsler, or Weeks.
Brandon Phillips Power and Speed dropping and he does not get on-base at a high clip. Hurts in OPS leagues.
Omar Infante Won’t hit like he did last year and does not provide much outside of AVG.

 

Top 3 Rookie 2B Reason
Tsuyoshi Nishioka Should hit for AVG and could be a double digit contributor in homers and steals.
Danny Espinosa Good power and some speed but will not hit for AVG or get on base at high clips.
Dustin Ackley Best 2B prospect should see Bigs this season.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at his other site Figure Filbert and on twitter at @FigureFilbert

Filed under: Fantasy | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Where is the Reds’ Love for 2011?

Posted on March 2, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

MLBdirt is proud to present our first of many guest posts by great bloggers from all over the internet. Get to know William J. Tasker, a/k/a The Flagrant Fan, a knowledgeable and passionate baseball fan that can be followed on twitter and found writing daily at his blog. Enjoy!

When was the last time you’ve seen a 91-win team, and a team that won its division by five games, get so little love for the following season as the Reds this year? Baseball Prospectus gives the team 82 wins for 2011. 82! CAIRO’s early projections gave the NL Central champions 85 wins and a third place finish. Betfirms.com projects them for fourth place. Covers.com predicts 85 wins. Are you getting the picture? Just as nobody thought the Reds would ever win the division in 2010, nobody is predicting a repeat. What is going on here?

In fairness to the prognosticators, let’s look at some of the reasoning. Perhaps the easiest way is to look at the projected starting position players and rotation and compare the projected results with the results from last year. To look at every projection system’s charts would be a bit much for all of us, so let’s just stick to Baseball Prospectus for now. You can see the projections here for yourself: Comments will be saved after we go through the players.

Position players:

Brandon Phillips: 2010 WARP: 3.8. Projected 2011 WARP: 1.9 (-1.9)

Edgar Renteria: Orlando Cabrera’s 2010 WARP: 0.6. Renteria’s projected WARP: 0.3 (-0.3)

Joey Votto: 2010 WARP: 7.7. Projected 2011 WARP: 4.4 (-3.3)

Scott Rolen: 2010 WARP: 6.0. Projected 2011 WARP: 2.7 (-3.3)

Jay Bruce: 2010 WARP: 6.7. Projected 2011 WARP: 3.5 (-3.2)

Jonny Gomes: 2010 WARP: 2.1. Projected 2011 WARP: 0.6 (-1.5)

Drew Stubbs: 2010 WARP: 5.3. Projected 2011 WARP: 1.1 (-4.2)

Ramon Hernandez and Ryan Hanigan: 2010 WARP: 6.8 (combined). Projected (combined) 2011 WAR: 2.6 (-4.2)

Comments: The first problem with the projection is that it assumes Fred Lewis will start in left. Dusty Baker has said the position belongs to Gomes. Secondly, what are the odds that every single position around the diamond will have less value than the year before? Surely, at least half should be able to repeat their success. Renteria (with backup from Janish) should at least duplicate the relative non-worth of Cabrera. At his age, it is possible for Rolen to fall off some. But Votto, Bruce, Phillips, and Stubbs are all young and developing major league players with huge upsides. It’s hard to imagine them losing a combined 12.7 wins between them from 2010 to 2011.

The Rotation

Edison Volquez: 2010 WARP: 1.1. Projected 2011 WARP: 1.7 (+0.6)

Bronson Arroyo: 2010 WARP: 4.2. Projected 2011 WARP: 1.5 (-2.7)

Johnny Cueto: 2010 WARP: 3.4. Projected 2011 WARP: 1.4 (-2.0)

Homer Bailey: 2010 WARP: 0.8. Projected 2011 WARP: 0.9 (+0.1)

Travis Wood: 2010 WARP: 1.7. Projected 2011 WARP: 1.9 (+0.2)

Mike Leake: 2010 WARP: 1.6. Projected 2011 WARP: -0.1 (-1.7)

Comments: Arroyo has put together four seasons in a row with a WARP of over 2.5. Last year was his best year of the bunch. So why should he fall so precipitously in 2011? Cueto seemed to finally find some consistency last year after never being able to put it all together before. Barring injury, it’s hard to believe he would regress that far. Volquez needs to prove he can stay healthy. He has all kinds of talent, but has yet to put a full and consistent season together. That projection makes sense. Bailey had some good moments in 2010, but he also needs to show he can be consistently good. So again, his projection makes sense. Travis Wood put together all that value last year in just a few starts. To think he couldn’t double those results over a full season seems unthinkable. Leake is an open story and could be anywhere or do anything this year.

The bullpen is pretty stable and compares with last year’s version. Aroldis Chapman will pitch the full season and should be able to replace the value left behind by the Amazing Arthur Rhodes (the Fan’s favorite personal nickname). The projections predict Francisco Cordero and Nick Masset will be less valuable than last year. Cordero is a pretty known quantity and should be able to come close to last year’s numbers. Masset is just too good to regress that much.

The Reds’ bench seems pretty similar to last year’s version. Miguel Cairo should regress because he’s never done what he did last year. But Paul Janish is competent enough to be the fourth infielder. It’s not a strong bench though Fred Lewis is a solid back up in the outfield. Suffice it to say that the bench is competent but not deep. If any of the regulars would get hurt, it would be hard to replace any of them.

From this observation deck, the lack of love for the Reds is puzzling. The NL Central is wide open. All the teams have improved from a year ago, but no one is dominant, especially with the Cardinals losing Adam Wainwright for the season. There is no reason the Reds can’t repeat though the Fan doesn’t think it will be as easy or the margin will be as great for whoever wins the division. But under few circumstances can this writer see the Reds winning less than 88 games. The projections are based on regression in every single position player on the field and three of this six potential starters. This Fan doesn’t buy it and thinks the Reds should get more love than they are getting.

Are the projections a reflection of the opinion most have about Dusty Baker? Many have not forgiven the man for Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Whether that reputation is deserved or not, you cannot take away the team’s 91 wins last year. And perhaps the perception is based on the way the Reds were buzz sawed by the Phillies in the playoffs. Either way, the projections are unique among division winners except for the similar lack of love being shown the Tampa Bay Rays. But that’s another story for another time.

Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 1,694 other followers