Fantasy Predictions: Pitcher Trends

Posted on January 22, 2013 by Daniel Marino

Bailey

Here is a look at some pitchers and what their trends suggest for 2013.

-In his 11 year career, Aaron Harang had his two best ERA seasons the past two seasons. However, his walk totals were abnormally high last season, posting his worst BB/9 ratio since his rookie season. His SO/9 have been trending downward over the past six years. His SO/BB ratio was also his worst since his rookie season. However, his H/9 was the second best of his career. Put the good and bad together, and you get a .500 pitcher, which Harang was with the Dodgers. In 2011 with the Padres, he was 14-7. If you remove that season, over the past five seasons, Harang is 28-48. He’s a huge risk at this point in his career.

2013 Projection: 8-11 4.66 ERA

-Jake Westbrook posted his best ERA since 2004. He posted the best HR/9 of his career. His BB/9 was his best since 2006. His ERA was his lowest since 2004. The past two seasons, his numbers are trending upward slightly, so Westbrook could have another solid season if that trend continues.

2013 Projection: 13-9 3.90 ERA

-Ricky Romero was horrible in 2012 after three solid seasons to start his career. His BB/9 were way up and his SO/9 were significantly down. The numbers are so alarming, he could very well be hiding an injury. It would be sad to think we’ve already seen the best of Romero. If there is not an injury, he’ll win games with a potent Blue Jay lineup. Romero is someone to watch in Spring Training. (more…)

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One Fan’s Rooting Section

Posted on February 2, 2012 by William J. Tasker

Continuing a theme started in the last post I wrote on this site, any baseball writer who says he isn’t a fan is a liar. We wouldn’t be in this business if we weren’t fans of this great sport. Oh, there have been some truly terrific writers about baseball who haven’t set out to be baseball writers, but on the whole, you have to love this stuff to write about it every day.

Of course, if we have to consider ourselves, “journalists,” then that fan thing has to take a back seat to objectivity. I wrestle with this all the time. We writers who let our fan-selves get in the way too often jeopardize our credibility if we don’t hold it back. Joe Posnanski has drawn the line that he won’t root for teams as a journalist but he does root for players. Fair enough. If it’s good enough for the Great Pos, then it’s good enough for me. What follows is a list of players I will be rooting for this season. There is no rhyme or reason for the wish list. They are simply players that capture one writer’s imagination. Some aren’t great players and I know they will continue not to be great players. But what the heck, eh? A fan is a fan is a fan.

(more…)

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Are the Athletics Done Dealing?

Posted on January 6, 2012 by Michael Schwartze

It is obvious that the Athletics are in a rebuilding process. They have dealt Trevor Cahill, Gio Gonzalez, and Andrew Bailey this offseason for prospects in return. In an article I wrote the other week, I took a look at the Athletics potential future rotation with all the pieces in the organization. There are many top prospects and young pitchers that could make for one of the best rotations in the league. Well a handful of these guys are close to the big leagues and once ready, it could make for quite the logjam in the rotation. In the article I mentioned above I also took a shot at projecting the A’s opening day rotation which is as follows:

1. Brandon McCarthy
2. Guillermo Moscoso
3. Dallas Braden
4. Brad Peacock
5. Tom Milone

That rotation is solid looking but there are still a lot of guys that are very close to being major league ready; Jarrod Parker, Tyson Ross, and Sonny Gray. Brett Anderson should also be back in the rotation by the middle of the season. Well with those guys knocking at the door, some space may need to be cleared in the rotation. The perfect opportunity for that: The Trade Deadline.

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Athletics Future Rotation

Posted on December 24, 2011 by Michael Schwartze

Year in and year out the Athletics’ rotation has been very solid. Last year’s rotation featured a handful of young starters including Brandon McCarthy, Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, and Guillermo Moscoso.

This offseason though, the Athletics have entered rebuilding mode and they traded off two of these pitchers. First, the A’s traded Trevor Cahill (and Craig Breslow) to the Arizona Diamondbacks in return for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill, and Ryan Cook.

Another move was made the other day when they traded Gio Gonzalez to the Nationals and received A.J. Cole, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock, and Tom Milone. The addition of those pitchers to the pitchers already in the system projects for a very good future rotation in Oakland.

There are already a handful of young pitchers in Oakland that have a couple years of major league service under their belt. The list includes Brandon McCarthy, Guillermo Moscoso, Josh Outman, Brett Anderson, and Dallas Braden.

(more…)

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Who Will Represent Oakland in the All-Star Game?

Posted on June 21, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

This is a weird team to try and find an All-Star on. Injuries and a horrible offense have plagued this team all year. The highest fWAR player on the team is injured starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy who only has nine starts on the season. His 2.0 fWAR is almost double the highest offensive player’s total and 0.6 higher than the next closest player. One could easily argue that the “one player per team” rule is ridiculous and, while they would probably be right, Oakland would most likely be left without a player on the American League All-Star team this year.

Gio Gonzalez leads all non-injured Athletics with 1.4 fWAR. He currently sits with a 2.69 ERA and 3.62 FIP in 87 innings pitched. His 8.48 K/9 ranks 6th among all AL starters but his 4.34 BB/9 are second worst in the AL. The two things Gio has going for him are that the Athletics have to have a representative at the game and that the AL roster will need a left-hander that can get a strikeout late in the game.

Trevor Cahill was well on his way to not only making the All-Star roster but competing for the AL Cy Young Award. He has cooled down considerably and currently sits at 1.2 fWAR with a 3.24 ERA and 3.97 FIP in 100 innings pitched. He is 3rd in the AL among starting pitchers with a 55.5% ground ball rate and has a decent 6.67 K/9 but, like Gio, he walks too many guys with a 3.78 BB/9 which is 5th worst in the AL.

Another option is to pull someone from the bullpen, which has been a bright spot for this club. Brad Ziegler leads the bullpen with 0.6 fWAR and has a 1.93 ERA and 1.97 FIP and gets 66.7% ground balls but only has 23.1 innings. I would rather see Grant Balfour get the nod with his 9.48 K/9 and 2.59 EAR in 31.1 innings.

Kurt Suzuki is the leading offensive candidate. He leads the team in fWAR with 1.1 and as a catcher you might be able to justify finding him a spot on the All-Star roster but the AL already has Russell Martin winning a spot due to voting and Alex Avila might be the most deserving catcher. Carlos Santana and Matt Wieters deserve to be on the team ahead of Suzuki as well. Suzuki may not be the best choice based on stats but he may the only candidate to represent this team.

If I had to pick today I would probably go with Gio Gonzalez. I am not big on having more than 3-4 relievers on the All-Star roster and Gio has, so far, had the best season among those who have worn an Athletics jersey and can still throw a ball 60 feet 6 inches.

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

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