2011 AL West Preview

Posted on March 27, 2011 by mikemcginnis

1. Texas Rangers

The Good: The Rangers are a young talented team that has emphasized pitching over offense and this group has not hit the ceiling yet. They may have one of the best offenses in the game with MVP Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz (a MVP caliber player), Ian Kinsler, Elvis Andrus and having 3 guys to play all 8 positions and DH with David Murphy, Mike Napoli and Mr. Ranger Michael Young. Adding Adrian Beltre was a smart move because he helps improve a shoddy Rangers defense and will benefit greatly from hitting in Texas with this lineup. The Rangers have talent on the mound as well with CJ Wilson, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Darren O’Day and Neftali Feliz.

The Bad: How does this team fare without Cliff Lee? Granted, Lee was average in the regular season with the Rangers but, he will be sorely missed. Asking to have CJ Wilson and Colby Lewis  replicate 2010, something they have never done before that, while also anchoring the rotation is the biggest key to the Rangers season. If this duo falters the Rangers are not winning this division. The bullpen has talent and plenty of nice numbers but, it needs to show more poise as they were occasionally hit up in big spots last season.

What to Look For: The balance of playing time and productivity of the Napoli-Murphy-Young trio will be interesting to watch. If RHP Tanner Scheppers and OF Engel Beltre continue to shine in the minors they could get a call up. Is Brandon Webb OK? Is he still the best sinker ball pitcher in the game? That is something to watch. Also, the learning curves of Tommy Hunter, Matt Harrison and most importantly, Derek Holland will be critical to the Rangers success.

Projection: While maybe a tick below last year’s bunch the Rangers are plenty good and could be even better. The pitching has to fall into place, like any team. It would be a wise choice not to bet against this bunch.

89-73 (1st Place)

2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
The Good: The Angels can go toe to toe with anyone with starting pitching. Dan Haren, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana and Joel Pineiro are a pretty safe quartet to keep you in games. Although it had some problems last year the bullpen has promise too considering it added Hisanori Takahashi and Scott Downs to go along with Fernando Rodney and Kevin Jepsen.

The Bad: The Angels were embarrassed in free agency this past winter and had to take on the overly bloated Vernon Wells contract. The Halos have major question marks with C Jeff Mathis and 3B Maicer Izturis. Both guys are usually bench guys with little power and are being forced into everyday roles. While it is good that the Angels are giving kids 1B Mark Trumbo and CF Peter Burjos shots at the big leagues they also need these kids to produce right away which maybe too much to ask. The Halos can only hope and wonder when 1B Kendry Morales can come back and contribute after ankle surgery. Morales is the most vital cog to the Angels offense.

What to Watch For: The Angels need top prospect C Hank Conger to make the break through to the Show sooner rather than later. The same can be said for OF Mike Trout. The outfield trio of Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells and Bobby Abreu gets another year older with the same measure of offensive expectation to produce. Can they all still do it? Can Erick Aybar replicate his 2009 season or is the player we all saw last year? The bullpen while upgraded, has major issues.

Projection: Age, bullpen problems and consistent offense, not something you are used to hearing with a Mike Scioscia team. The Angels have plenty of questions but, they also have plenty of starting pitching and a good manager. If the Rangers falter don’t be too surprised to see the Angels somehow in the mix to take the AL West flag.

86-76 (2nd Place)

3. Oakland A’s

The Good: The A’s have one of the  best starting rotations in the AL when all healthy. Trevor Cahill, Brett Anderson, Dallas Braden and Gio Gonzalez can confound and hold down offenses most nights. The great thing about the staff is there aren’t all the same type of pitcher each one is different and has a different wrinkle throwing offenses off.  Adding OF’s David DeJesus, Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui was a major boost to a punchless offense. The A’s also have a very good bullpen as well with Grant Balfour, Brian Fuentes, Mike Wuertz, Brad Ziegler and closer Andrew Bailey.

The Bad: The A’s offense got off the hook in 2010 because the Mariners offense was so historically bad. This team needs home runs desperately because it was powerless in 2010. The A’s have to hope the additions of Matsui, Willingham and DeJesus pay off. Also, having OF prospects Chris Carter and Michael Taylor break through to the MLB Level full time would help too.

What to Look For: If the A’s stay healthy and pitch to their potential and possibly get Rich Harden healthy throwing strikes out of the bullpen then look out, this team could win the division their pitching is that good.

Projection: A down year for the AL West means the time is ripe for the A’s to strike. This is a good team that just needs more runs to be scored. Billy Beane did a solid job upgrading this team and while they are picked here at 3rd place I think if Texas loses this division it’s more likely because the A’s win it not the Angels.

85-77 (3rd Place)

The Good: A very limited selection here. The Mariners do have the reigning CY Young Award winner who is soon to be 25 in Felix Hernandez. The Marniers also have a future Hall of Famer in Ichiro Suzuki who is good for a .310 plus batting average, 30 plus steals, 200 hundred plus hits and a Gold Glove in rightfield. The Mariners boast a pretty good defensive team as well.

The Bad: The offense was so bad last year it was epically and historically atrocious. Scary thing is the only thing the Mariners did was add Jack Cust to the everyday lineup which means a lot more of unneeded strikeouts but, some much need walks and homeruns. The Mariners desperately need 2009 years from Franklin Gutierrez and Chone Figgins not the bad 2010 years they had. The bullpen had its problems last year as well. You can add David Aardsma as a guy needed to have a year like he did in 2009 not last year. Jason Vargas and Doug Fister were OK for this rotation in 2010. It would be nice to see Erik Bedard just get on the mound in 2011 doing his Carl Pavano Yankees impression for the Mariners. This staff doesn’t have a real compliment to Felix Hernandez which is a problem.

What to Look For: The Mariners desperately need 1B Justin Smoak and LF Michael Saunders to figure it out and impact the everyday lineup immediately if this team has any expectation to be decent. You better add prospects LHP Mauricio Robles, RHP Michael Pineda and 2B Dustin Ackley to that list as well. That’s a lot of things that have to happen for things to be good this year in Seattle.

Projection: The offense couldn’t be much worse than it was in 2010 could it? Or could it be?  This is an odd year and the book says the Mariners will be 85 plus win team if you follow their past 5 years. I don’t know how they will pull that off this year but, then again no else saw them being good in 2007 and 2009 either. I don’t forsee them being a .500 or better team this year. But, then again I have been wrong many times before.

65-97 (4th Place)

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2011 NL Central Preview

Posted on March 26, 2011 by mikemcginnis

2011 NL Central Preview

1. Cincinnati Reds

The Good: The Reds have a solid combo of strong bats and strong starting pitching. Bronson Arroyo, Edison Volquez, Travis Wood, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto and Mike Leake form a formidible rotation. While the offense is spearheaded by triple crown candidate/MVP Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Scott Rolen, Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce. Two things the Reds offense has is power with some speed.

The Bad: The back end of the bullpen is a cause for concern. Francisco Cordero has logged a lot of innings the past few years and looked like he was tired the 2nd half of last year. The Dusty Baker effect once again if you ask me. I am not buying all the hype surrounding Aroldis Chapman. Chapman can throw 115MPH for all I am concerned but, his control, mechanics and lack of developed secondary pitches raise some flags. Realize, the Reds are now expected to win and will be targeted by other teams, that changes the perspective for the young Reds a lot. Another crucial question: Can Scott Rolen stay healthy and productive for 2 straight years?

What to Look For: The continued development Drew Stubbs, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Aroldis Chapman, Edison Volquez, Travis Wood and Mike Leake will determine how far the Reds will progress this season. The Reds are following the right path in terms of a successful long term plan.

Projection: The Reds definitely seem to be trying to follow the Phillies blueprint: A solid starting rotation, good defense and plenty of power bats with some speed. The Reds weren’t a fluke last year and this year they should prove that.

92-70 (1st Place)

Milwaukee Brewers

The Good: The Brewers made massive upgrades to a pitching rotation that sorely needed it. 2009 1-2 starters Yovanni Gallardo and Randy Wolf get bumped down to 3 and 4 to make room for new ace Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum. These were two very high impact moves by the Brew Crew and I am sure Marcum and Greinke will benefit from pitching in the NL and having strong offensive support. While being dominated by right handers, the Brewers can score runs. The offensive attack of Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, Casey McGehee and Rickie Weeks is very impressive.

The Bad: The Brewers defense can be down right dreadful and that will cost them some games. John Axford, Zach Braddock, 41 year old Takashi Saito and Kameron Loe will have to shore up a bullpen that had plenty of leaks last season. Another critical question: Can Carlos Gomez be an everyday CF?

What to Look For: If the right deal comes along would the Brewers deal Prince Fielder and move Mat Gamel to 1B? That should be interesting to see. Also, the development of John Axford and Zach Braddock to the late inning roles is something the Brewers need to take shape if they want to be serious contenders.

Projection: If the Reds falter the Brewers are most likely taking the division. The Brewers are taking their shot this year realizing it most likely is their last with big slugging 1B Prince Fielder. Should be an exciting summer in Milwaukee.

89-73 (2nd place)

Chicago Cubs

The Good: The Cubs offense should be able to produce runs with the likes of Aramis Ramirez, Starlin Castro, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena, Marlon Byrd, Geovany Soto and Tyler Colvin. The Cubs front 3 starting pitchers of Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza and Ryan Dempster give their fans plenty of reason to think they can contend and Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner are not bad options out of the 4 and 5 spots.

The Bad: The Cubs have been awful at situational hitting the past few years and adding more strikeouts with Carlos Pena will not help. Alfonso Soriano and Aramis Ramirez looked old and worn out last year which is not a good sign. Middle relief was a disaster for the Cubs last year and outside of Carlos Marmol the closer, there are too many question marks for the Cubs.

What to Look For: Will be interesting to see how Cubs skipper Mike Quade is able to keep the usually hotheaded Carlos Zambrano and Matt Garza on track. This is a transition year for the Cubs. I strongly believe Carlos Pena is a 1 year rental before the Cubs land Albert Pujols, Justin Morneau or Prince Fielder to play 1B.

Prediction: The Cubs will shine and have their moments but, unless they get some critical big hits, cut down on the strikeouts and get decent middle relief help they are only a decent team not a good team.

84-78 (3rd Place)

St. Louis Cardinals

The Good: The offense should be OK considering it has Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Colby Rasmus at its core. Chris Carpenter, Jake Westbrook and Jaime Garcia should help steady a questionable rotation.

The Bad: Plenty. Adam Wainwright and his Cy Young Award type numbers are gone for the year and more importantly, this could be Albert Pujols last year as a Cardinal. This is a major year of flux for the Cards who could also deal free agent to be Chris Carpenter at the trade deadline if they fall out of contention. Is RF Lance Berkman still an everyday player? What kind of production do the Cardinals get from the middle infield of Ryan Theriot and Skip Schumaker? Can the Cardinals recover from losing Adam Wainwright for an entire season?

What to Look For: If Carpenter, Tony LaRussa and Pujols leave within the next year the Cards could be in a full blown rebuilding phase. Dave Duncan is one of the best pitching coaches ever with all the pitching projects he has taken on and transformed. Duncan will have to use all of his skills this season to help the Crads overcome the loss of Adam Wainwright. Fireballer Carlos Martinez may arrive into the bullpen for the Cardinals this summer.

Projection: It already looks like this could be a rough year for the Cardinals will all the questions left unanswered. Where does this team go past 2011 is the most important question of them all.

79-83 (4th Place)

Houston Astros

The Good: The Astros GM Ed Wade did a heck of a job rebuilding the core of this team midseason in 2009 and finally has the Astros younger and cheaper then they have been in a while. 1B Brett Wallace, RF Hunter Pence and 3B Chris Johnson help give some much needed youth into the Astros everyday lineup. They may not jump out at you but, J.A. Happ, Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez and Bud Norris give Houston a decent starting rotation. Closer Brandon Lyon, Fernando Abad, Wilton Lopez,  and Mark Melancon are pretty decent options out of the bullpen too.

The Bad: The Astros are still a ways off in terms of getting younger better position players and are stuck with some stopgap solution players in their middle infield. Also, the Astros are saddled with the bloated Carlos Lee contract. Losing young catcher Jason Castro for the year to a knee injury is a blow not easily recovered from either.

What to Look For: The Astros can only pray that Carlos Lee has a big first half and can convince someone crazy or desperate enough to take him off the Astros hands even for half price.

Projection: When you have pitching you can win or in the Astros case, be representable. The Astros need to find position players but, are heading in the right direction with their relatively young pitching.

73-89 (5th Place)

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Good: Well, at least the Pirates have some good talent in the field eveyday and should score some runs with CF Andrew McCutchen, 3B Pedro Alvarez, 2B Neil Walker and LF Jose Tabata. James McDonald and Ross Ohlendorf give the Pirates a prayer that they can give up less than 5-10 runs at least 2 days out of the week. Evan Meek, Chris Resop and Joel Hanrahan provide some actual relief for a bullpen that’s pretty rotten.

The Bad: Are you kidding me?!?!? Well, the worst is the ownership who cares nothing about the franchise or the fan base because they maintain the lowest MLB payroll while turning one of the highest profits. Pathetic. As a Pirates player you are encouraged to play your best because the sooner you do the sooner you are traded from the team. Hard to believe the Pirates share the same city as one of the NFL’s all time elite/successful franchises and a very successful NHL franchise as well. The Pirates pitching staff was abysmal last year. When you have the worst team ERA and you are not in the AL or playing half the time in Cincinnatti, Houston or Philadelphia (3 great band boxes) you have major issues. Oh, yeah, and if that was not bad enough, the Pirates have plenty of problems catching and throwing the baseball consistently in the field too.

What to Look For: To see the Pirates roll out a borderline MLB team and not lose a 100 games. MLB should assume ownership of this franchise because the Pirates front office is a disgrace.

Projection: See the past 18 years. Somehow I think they will only lose 98 games this year. Yet, I cannot substantiate why.

64-98 (6th Place)

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2011 NL West Preview

Posted on March 26, 2011 by mikemcginnis

2011 NL West Preview

1. San Francisco Giants

The Good: 1-5 the Giants may have the best rotation in the Majors. Relax, Phillies fans, I said 1-5 not 1-4. Having Matt Cain and Tim Linecum on the top and three quality lefties to follow allows the Giants a chance to win on any given night.

The Bad: Any Giants fan will tell you watching the Giants offense the past few years can make you pull hair out of your head. The Giants offense can simply disappear at times all together. This may change this year however, realize, the Giants will have a full year of Buster Posey, Mark Derosa and perhaps 1B hot shot prospect Brandon Belt. Pablo Sandoval has shed some pounds and the Giants would love him to recapture his 2009 form (and actually walk once in a while) which would help offset the 24 HR and 85 RBI lost when Juan Uribe went to the Dodgers.

Keep and Eye On: Look for three youngsters to perhaps lead the Giants to another division title. The first being Buster Posey, who every one knows. Second, is lefty Madison Bumgarner, he has top of the rotation stuff and could possibly allow the Giants to trade Jonathan Sanchez or Matt Cain down the line for a big bat. Last, is the lefty hitting first baseman, Brandon Belt. From what the scouts all say, Belt is the goods and actually has five tool ability as a first baseman.

Bottom Line: Pitching wins and I think a lot of people are overlooking the World Champs. The Giants are a solid team that was not a fluke last season and if healthy should challenge seriously for a 2nd NL Pennant.

Prediction: 92-70 (1st Place)

2. Colorado Rockies

The Good: The Rockie Big Three. The Rockies are lead by Cy Young Award Candidate Ubaldo Jimenez and MVP candidates Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki. That’s a good place to start from if you are a contender.

The Bad: The consistency factor is some the Rockies need to address. It seemed last year they would win 7 in a row then lose 6 in a row. It certainly did not help that the entire pitching staff behind Jimenez and the bullpen struggled both health wise and on the mound. I think the Rockies will be better this year in terms of luck.

Keep an Eye On: The supporting cast around the Big Three. It’s time for Ian Stewart, Chris Iannetta and Dexter Fowler to shed the potential label and start producing consistently on the MLB level. Catchers Jordan Pacheco and Wilin Rosario could push Iannetta for the starting job at some point. Healthy and/or solid years from Aaron Cook, Huston Street, Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De La Rosa and Franklin Morales would go a long way to enable the Rockies to be serious contenders.

Bottom Line: The Rockies Big Three will have to replicate 2009 and some of the arms need to be consistent and healthy if the Colorado hopes to make it the playoffs. That maybe a lot to ask but, it would not shock me to see it happen.

Prediction: 89-73 (2nd Place)

3. Los Angeles Dodgers

The Good: Although Clayton Kershaw maybe the only guy that jumps out at you, the Dodgers do have a deep reliable rotation, with Jon Garland, Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda and Chad Billingsley. When you have a trio of Matt Kemp, Andre Either and James Loney you have to think you have a chance to produce some decent offense consistently.

The Bad: Outside of Kemp, Loney and Either the Dodgers have age and health issues with SS Rafael Furcal, 3B Casey Blake, C Rod Barjas. Plus, Matt Kemp is coming off a dreadful year and LF is a major question mark. Furthermore, the Dodgers have a question mark at closer. Jonathan Broxton and Hong-Chih Kuo are fantastic setup men but, I don’t believe they have “it” to be a closers. Perhaps Kenley Jansen can get a shot at the closer spot at some point?

Keep an Eye On: The value of Juan Uribe could be immense. If he can replicate 2009 that would be a tremendous boost for the Dodger offense plus, he can help fill in possible injury holes at SS/3B.  Don’t be surprised to see minor league prospects OF Trayvon Robinson, and INF’s Dee Gordon and Ivan DeJesus Jr. to be up at some point.

Projection: Age, injuries and kids will preoccupy new Dodgers skipper, Don Mattingly’s mind in 2011. The Dodgers starting staff should keep them in a lot of games and contend this season.

Prediction: 87-75 (3rd place)

4. San Diego Padres

The Good: At this point, not very much although Mat Latos and closer Heath Bell have All-Star abilities. Then again, Petco Park is the easiest place to pitch in the Big Leagues.

The Bad: So, let’s see, you follow up an complete unexpected playoff chase by trading the face of your franchise and 60% of your offense in Adrain Gonzalez. Yes, I know, the Padres did get potential future ace Casey Kelly and 1B Anthony Rizzo but, neither are going to help this year. This offense could be really bad. The Padres have to hope Wil Venable, Chase Headley and Cameron Maybin finally put it all together on the MLB level or else every pitcher will look forward to facing this lineup. The Padres also have to hope Ryan Ludwick and Brad Hawpe can resurrect their fading careers as well.

What to Look For: The Padres could be in prime position come the trade deadline to unload Heath Bell and some of their very productive bargin bin relievers to contenders willing to give up young talent.

Projection: This franchise and fanbase has to be demoralized following the Adrian Gonzalez trade. I just don’t know how you sell it to your fans or your players. Could be a long season in San Diego.

65-97 (4th place)

5. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Good: The Diamondbacks should be able to score a decent amount of runs with the likes of Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson, Justin Upton, Miguel Montero, Brandon Allen and Chris Young. Kirk Gibson seems like he want players to have accountability and brings a winning attitude to the clubhouse. Barry Enright, Daniel Hudson and Ian Kennedy were all very solid for the D-Backs rotation last year and give some reason to hope.

The Bad: Sure, the D-Backs can score runs but, they strikeout a ton too. Whereas, the bullpen was a complete trainwreck last season. Furthermore, Hudson, Kennedy and Enright have to anchor this rotation or the Snakes are sunk. That could be a tall order for this young trio.

What to Look For: J.J. Putz was brought in to close and bring stability to the bullpen. Mark Reynolds and 200 strikeouts and 30 plus errors were dealt to Baltimore. Maybe this helps, maybe it doesn’t. The D-Backs are not without talent, they just play like a bunch of rookies. The problem is they have played that way for two striaght years with no signs of progress.

Projection: I have been fooled by the D-Backs before thinking they could be good. This time around they will have to prove to me they are better than a 90 loss team.

65-97 (4th place tied)

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