Junius Worth
David Kerr
Charlie Nehl
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Andrew Martin
Jonathan C. Mitchell
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Daniel Marino
Michael Schwartze
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Spencer Schneier
William J. Tasker
The Philadelphia Phillies, desperate for a center fielder, decided not to overpay in cash on a free agent like Michael Bourn and instead opted to overpay in trade to obtain Ben Revere from the Minnesota Twins who adds more young pitching to their organization.
Please do not get me wrong; Ben Revere is a fine player in his own right. He possesses plus speed and is worth probably 2-wins above replacement, 3-WAR at most, with his glove and feet alone but his bat is so far below average that it could cost a win.
Revere is the proud owner of 20 power (the lowest grade on the scouting scale) and a career 78 wRC+. His ISO of .044 in his career is the worst of any player with 1000 plate appearances since he appeared in the Majors, lower than Juan Pierre, Jamey Carroll, and Ryan Theriot. New teammate, and pitcher, Cliff Lee has a career .058 ISO. He does have excellent contact skills, though, but his patience is pathetic, mustering only a 5.3% unintentional walk rate in his young career.
Revere does not belong anywhere near the top of the Phillies’ lineup and if they are smart they will bat him eight, in front of the pitcher.
The Phillies gave up one of their top prospects in Trevor May. May possesses a low-to-mid 90s fastball with good sink and a great frame that helps him hold his velocity deep into games. He pairs it with an above-average curveball that has the chance to be more and a developing change-up. He has struck out better than a batter per inning four straight seasons. His command, control, and mechanics all need to improve as well as his change-up but he has the upside of a number two starter. The Twins, who preach control, could be exactly what May needs to further his game.
Vance Worley has an 89-91 mph fastball that he locates well and an slightly above-average slider to go with a durable frame that should be able to eat a lot of innings at the back of the Twins rotation. He also keeps the ball in the park better than league average and moves to a park that is better at suppressing homeruns than the home park he is leaving.
The Phillies may not have overpaid financially for a center fielder but they overpaid significantly in arms and take one further step at fully depleting their farm system to get a player in Revere whose 2.8 fWAR per 600 plate appearances is right in line with that of Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Carlos Gomez (2.8 fWAR/600) and Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Sam Fuld (2.7 fWAR/600).
-Jonathan C. Mitchell can also be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert. Be sure to follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt
Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis Tagged: | Alex Meyer, Ben Revere, Carlos Gomez, Cliff Lee, Jamey Carroll, Juan Pierre, Minnesota Twins, MLB Winter Meetings, Philadelphia Phillies, Prospects, Ryan Theriot, Sam Fuld, Trades, Trevor May, Vance Worley
WTF??? Stupid trade! Amaro is an idiot!
He is starting look like a very bad GM.
I don’t think the comparison is as straightforward as you’re making it. The Phillies need offensive and defensive improvement much more than a solid #3 starter in a #4 role. Did we overpay? Yeah, we probably did. But was it worth it? IMO, absolutely.
I agree the need for CF over SP was key in making this deal but I think we both agree that it was an overpay. Revere belongs hitting #8 and does not bring value in the batter’s box.
It’s called upside. Revere has less than two years service time at age 24. The prospects the Phillies gave up all have 0 WARs. According to the logic of the author in analyzing Revere’s stats, that should mean that Twins got jacked. Obviously, the Phillies consider him a prospect as much as an established major leaguer. It’s not like a young player figuring out how to take a walk or improve his performance is unprecedented.
Worley has been worth 4.6 fWAR and is not eligible for arb until 2014, same year as Revere. Revere has no upside. He is what he is and his value will rise and fall with his BABIP. The Twins also get May, a top prospect with the chance to be a number two starter with some improved control and mechanics. Revere is a good player but not worth the price the Phillies paid.
Guys like Worley are a dime a dozen and May might be a mid rotation guy. They get a young CF who isn’t arbitration eligable yet with good speeed who doesn’t strike out much and has some upside. Theey can sign a 1 year guy like Jurgens or Lanon to do what Worley could do.
Worley isn’t arb eligible yet either. Jurrjens has three straight declining seasons and is barely replacement level. Worley has much more to offer. Revere has no more upside. He is what he is. He is not bad at all but he is not worth the price the Phillies paid.
agreed, they can get a lohse type and be fine, worley’s arm worries me, may will be another duckworth, happ type
The Band Box the Phillies play in will allow even Revere to hit 5 to 8 HRs a year. Worley is a good Number 4 and maybe a 3. Wait until the AL figures him out and his ERA blooms. With the extra arm in May, Minnesota got the best of the trade, but barely.
Taking Revere’s batted balls from Target Field and placing them in Citizen’s shows that one of his balls would have made it over the fence. I’d bet the under on the 5-8 HR scale.
worley has elbow problems, is a 6 inning blanton type, maybe a #4, great trade