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When the Hall of Fame ballots come out I love to look at the names that are included for the first time. To simply be named on the Hall of Fame ballot is an honor even if you know that player will not get a single vote.
As I started looking at the first-time names on this year’s ballot there really weren’t any that stuck out to me and made me think they would be missed if they fell off the ballot after one year. Javy Lopez may have been the closest name to do that since he did have a fantastic offensive career as a catcher but after taking a long look at him I don’t think I will ever wonder if it was sad that his name came and went in one year. Bernie Williams was another name but I actually think he will have a small support group that will keep him on the ballot for at least another year.
Last year’s ballot had two names that, like Lou Whitaker, came and went in one year and left me wondering if they maybe should have hung on a little bit longer. One was Kevin Brown and the other was John Olerud.
Olerud always intrigued me. From the helmet he wore both on the field and at the plate to the fact he did not play in his first minor league game until he was 36 years old. Olerud had a sweet swing, smooth glove, and knack for getting on base. In fact, there are only 17 retired players in history that have reached base more than Olerud’s 3602 times and are not in the HOF. Here they are (in order of times on base):
Pete Rose, Barry Bonds, Craig Biggio, Rafael Palmeiro, Gary Sheffield, Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey Jr., Rusty Staub, Tim Raines, Harold Baines, Dwight Evans, Darrell Evans, Luis Gonzalez, Jeff Bagwell, Fred McGriff, Bill Dahlen, and Edgar Martinez.
A case can be made for nearly every player on that list to be in the Hall of Fame and Olerud had a higher on-base percentage than all but only four of them and a higher OPS+ than all but eight of them.
Making an even better case for John Olerud is if we compared him to recent Hall of Famer inductee Jim Rice. Check out the side-by-side comparison:
| Stat | Jim Rice | John Olerud |
| PA | 9058 | 9063 |
| AVG | .298 | .295 |
| OBP | .352 | .398 |
| SLG | .502 | .465 |
| OPS+ | 128 | 128 |
| wOBA | .375 | .376 |
| wRC+ | 128 | 129 |
| TB | 4129 | 3530 |
| TOB | 3186 | 3602 |
| XBH | 834 | 766 |
| BB | 670 | 1275 |
| K | 1423 | 1016 |
| GIDP | 315 | 232 |
| WPA | 22.65 | 35.06 |
| UZR | 22.0 | 100.5 |
| Rtot | 24 | 99 |
| Outs | 5872 | 5461 |
| fWAR | 56.1 | 61.3 |
| rWAR | 41.5 | 56.8 |
The plate appearances, OPS+, wRC+, and wOBA are nearly identical.
Rice was a left fielder who played 25% of his games as a designated hitter with zero Gold Gloves, but he did win an MVP award although his team never a World Series, and he hit .225/.313/.366 in 80 postseason plate appearances.
Olerud was a slick fielding first baseman who won 3 Gold Gloves but never won an MVP and hit .278/.366/.435 in 273 postseason plate appearances including playing for two World Series winning teams.
The comparisons are close but there is a better player. While Rice definitely wins in the power department he loses in almost every other category of the game to Olerud.
This post is not to say that John Olerud belongs in the Hall of Fame or to say Jim Rice does not belong but to point out that the career Olerud had, although slightly better than Hall-of-Famer Jim Rice’s, still only kept his name on the Hall of Fame ballot for one year and he is historically underrated for his on-field accomplishments.
-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert. Be sure to follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt
Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis, Hall of Fame Tagged: | Barry Bonds, Bill Dahlen, Boston Red Sox, Craig Biggio, Darrell Evans, Dwight Evans, Edgar Martinez, Frank Thomas, Fred McGriff, Gary Sheffield, Gold Glove Award, Hall of Fame, Harold Baines, Javy Lopez, Jeff Bagwell, Jim Rice, John Olerud, Ken Griffey Jr., Kevin Brown, Lou Whitaker, Luis Gonzalez, MVP, Pete Rose, Rafael Palmeiro, Rusty Staub, Tim Raines, Toronto Blue Jays, World Series
I so much agree! Someday, somehow, somebody is going to prove how valuable a good fielding first baseman really is. Jon Olerud made the Blue Jays better fielders in the infield and did the same thing with the Mets. Plus, he was an excellent offensive player. He was terrific. Great piece.
Thanks! I have always been a fan and he is so vastly underrated it makes me a little mad. Haha! Bill James had this to say about Olerud:
“In recent years it has been suggested that the Cy Young Award for Felix Hernandez or the Hall of Fame selection of Bert Blyleven show how far sabermetrics has come in winning general acceptance. Well, let me suggest that the near-unanimous rejection of John Olerud shows how far we haven’t come. If John Olerud had hit .324 in his career¹, I suggest, his value would have been considered self-evident, and people would think of him as a Hall of Famer. He would have scored about 50 less runs; he would have driven in about 70 more—which would have given him six hundred-RBI seasons, rather than three.
In my analysis, John Olerud rates as an obvious Hall of Famer.”
Have you ever compared Olerud to Keith Hernandez? Amazingly similar careers. Both underrated. Both should be in the Hall of Fame as the best defenders of their position in history.
I have. Hernandez was vastly underrated. I, personally, wouldn’t put either in the Hall (nor would I put Rice in) but if you set your standards to current players in the Hall then I agree that both belong.
Ozzie Smith is in the Hall of Fame largely for his defense. The same can be said of Brooks Robinson. There should be consideration for other players who were the best at playing their position, especially when they were fine hitters too.
You are correct on why those guys are in the Hall but I cannot put Olerud or Hernandez is the same class defensively.
It’s not like Ozzie was a slouch. He had a .337 OBP and stole 580 bases and Brooks Robinson may be the best defensive player of all-time.
I think that when people look at Olerud s career they look at the 93 and 98 seasons..and say, well why didn t je have more years like that?
It may be an unfair judgement, but its easy to make…
But I would give the edge to Keith Hernandez,,,,great defenders at each position SHOULD be given consideration for thr HOF, the examples of Brooks Robinson and Ozzie Smith have been cited, and Bil Mazeroskii turned more DPs then (I believe) then any second baseman in history.
Olerud was a very fine first baseman, but Hernandez was a genius at fist base, he won TEN GGs, he was an efficient and productive itter and he was a leader…He was a key that made the Mets a contender and championship team in the mid 80s. Unfortunately, he had a drug problem and ran afoul of Whitey Herzog in St. Louis ) they were two very strong personalities.
I don t think either Olerud or Hernandez will ge t in…and there are a raft of very fine first basemen …(starting with Gil Hodges) not in the HOF…..Norm Cash, Cecil Cooper, Chris Chambliss, Don Mattingly, Will Clark come to mind…..Wes Parker who only played 9 years and won SIX GGs.
There are only 17 first basemen in the HOF (I m not counting players from the negro leagues) and the BBWA profie for a modern era first baseman has been Gehrig, Foxx and Greenberg.. amog the three greatest sluggers in basball history. First basement who have been elthree ected (McCovery and Murray had the magic numbers, 500 HRs or 3000 hits or both, or were big HR hitters, Cepeda, Perez and Johnny Mize…..
Palmeiro has the magic numbers but also the stigma of PEDs….
But given a choice between Palmeiro and Hernandez and Olerud….. I would vote for Palmeiro….cant ignore those numbers from 93 to 2005…
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I would definitely vote for Palmeiro and do not understand the lack of backers he has.
Hernandez was a whiz with the glove. He has the highest UZR for a 1B in history. Second place is… Olerud. Both were crazy good with the glove.
Probably the only four of the seventeen listed I would argue against are Baines (the worst on the list), Staub, Gonzalez, and McGriff (borderline HOF), most of their lead on Olerud is longevity-driven. If you looked at this list as times on base per 162 games (650 PA), then:
Baines: 231 ToB/650 PA
Staub: 234 ToB/650 PA
Gonzalez: 274 ToB/650 PA
McGriff: 245 ToB/650 PA
Olerud: 258 ToB/650 PA
Couple thoughts – Gonzalez did really well in this measure, much better than I thought. And Olerud is the cousin of Dale Sveum, which I did not know until looking at his BB-Ref page today.
I did not know that about Olerud either. Nice littel tidbit.
Out of those 17 I know I agree and would not vote for the same 4 you mentioned.
[...] Historically Underrated: John Olerud | MLB Dirt Jonathan at MLB Dirt compares former Jays first baseman John Olerud to recent Hall of Fame inductee Jim Rice. [...]
[...] of Gil Hodges, ignored the accomplishments of Keith Hernandez, thoroughly dismissed the credentials of John Olerud and issued a ballot that couldn’t spare one lousy line to briefly consider the honorable [...]