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Jonathan C. Mitchell
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The San Diego Padres have appeared to sign 1B/COF Mark Kotsay to a one year deal worth $1.25M and this is far and away one of the worst contracts that will be signed this offseason.
Now, $1.25M is not a lot of money in major league baseball but it is a lot to spend on a soon-to-be 36 year old who cannot even adequately play a corner out field spot and has no power and no speed. And, if he even could play a corner spot at a league-average defensive rate he is still a well below league-average hitter and a laughable one for a corner spot, which demands more on the offensive side of the ball.
Kotsay has not had a season where he hit at least league-average since 2004 and has only hit above league-average four times in his 14 year major league career.
Since Kotsay’s age 30 season he has hit 18% below league-average (82 wRC+) with a triple-slash of .262/.320/.377 and wOBA of .304 with a whopping 29 homeruns in 2041 plate appearances. As you can see, he does not hit for average, get on base, or hit for power. And he is relegated to a corner position.
Over that same period of time Kotsay had a mere 16 stolen bases in 29 attempts and was a -7.7 base runner (Bsr). That Bsr includes the fact that he is a -5.0 base runner over the past three seasons. It would be bad enough if he added no value on the bases but he actually hurts you on the bases.
His outfield defense over this same time period is an abysmal -30 UZR and it is even worse at -36.8 if I take it one year further. The only positive is that he has a +0.5 UZR in 784 innings at first base but the offensive output that is needed at this position is one that Kotsay has never been able to reach.
Kotsay has been worth -1.8 fWAR and -3.0 rWAR since his age 30 season. This is one real case where you really would be better off with a replacement level player who makes league minimum but the Padres feel the need to bring a below replacement level player in and pay him three times the amount of a league minimum replacement level player. Makes sense?
To make matters worse, the Padres are very much set at first base and pretty set at the corner out field spots where Kotsay has no business being anyway. Anthony Rizzo is a top prospect that should be playing first everyday but even if they feel he may not be ready there is another guy named Kyle Blanks who deserves a shot at first.
If Rizzo is at first then Blanks will be in left. Both should be playing daily in 2012. That leaves right as the only possible spot for Kotsay to get playing time but the Padres have a plethora of better candidates in Will Venable, Chris Denorfia, Aaron Cunningham, and Blake Tekotte. Kotsay should not be taking any at-bats away from these players nor should he be taking a guaranteed roster spot from them.
The Padres already had Jesus Guzman as the perfect guy for Kotsay’s role. He makes league minimum and can play first, left, and right better than Kotsay. Not to mention that Guzman hit 44% better than league-average (144 wRC+) last year, albeit in limited duty, but the chance for upside exists in Guzman and not in Kotsay.
If the Padres know this but believe his value is in teaching the young guys “a thing or two” then they should have signed him as a coach or instructor because he absolutely cannot teach any single skill by displaying it on the field.
To sum it up, Kotsay is a horrible defensive outfielder that hits well below league average with below average base running skills and has been the worst player with at least 2000 plate appearances the past six seasons and the Padres just gave him a guaranteed spot on the 25-man roster and $1.25M. Make sense?
-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt
Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis Tagged: | Aaron Cunningham, Anthony Rizzo, Blake Tekotte, Chris Denorfia, Free Agents, Jesus Guzman, Kyle Blanks, Mark Kotsay, San Diego Padres, Will Venable
Yeah I totally agree.. for a team strapped for cash it seems like a stupid early move.
You are right, the fact they have less money to spend makes it even worse. Even if they had $100M to spend it’s still a horrible move. He is of negative value and will take playing time from kids that need it.
[...] MLB Dirt says the Mark Kotsay signing makes zero sense for the Padres. [...]
While I’m not 100% familiar with the Padres entire roster, I thought the Kotsay signing was horrible as soon as I saw it. Thought for sure the guy was gonna have to sign a minor-league deal, or retire this off-season.
Thanks for the analysis. Now I realize the deal was even worse than what I first believed. Nice write-up.
Thanks for the comment!
I agree 100% that I thought if he were to make a team it would have been on a minor-league deal. But, Jeff Moorad was his agent years ago before working with the Padres.
While the Kotsay signing makes little sense, there are a few discrepancies in your commentary.
He has signed as a bench bat only. While it’s stupid to use a guy whose bat is below average as a bat-only guy, he’s going to see the same 1.3 plate appearances per game played (i.e., be used nearly exclusively as a pinch hitter) that Matt Stairs had in 2010 for Buddy’s Boys. He’s not going to be taking at-bats away from Rizzo, Blanks or any other regular in the lineup. [Certainly, Aaron Cunningham would provide at least as much offensive value and actually be trusted to make spot starts, but MLB teams are too reluctant to use a rookie in that role.]
Second, as atrocious as Mark Kotsay has been in the outfield, Jesus Guzman could not actually do better. While he’s not quite as hideous at 1B as he is in his other “positions,” he can’t really play 1B better than Kotsay either.
And as to having him in the clubhouse, there really is a difference between a coach in the clubhouse and a player – no matter how unskilled – in the clubhouse. And after their severe lack of leadership in the clubhouse last year, the club has decided to pay a (ridiculous) premium for it.
Again, this is a truly stupid signing. If he was playing for free, I would STILL call it a stupid signing, because they’ve already got a roster crunch and he’s just not worth the opportunity cost of having him there instead of ANYONE. But thought it was worth throwing in these notes/corrections.
Thanks for the comment and input. I can certainly see your point. I still hold that I would rather see those 1.3 PAs go to someone else. Not sure if his leadership is equal to Kotsay but Branyan would be a much better fit.
I just find it odd that Kotsay even got a major league deal, especially for over $1M but Jeff Moorad was his agent in the past.
Guzman did have limited duty in the field but he had a positive UZR at each position her played. Again, it is a small sample but he was not bad.
I really wish Fangraphs wouldn’t even publish UZR numbers in samples that small, it just makes people cite things that are uninformative and unusefull… Jesus is certainly a player who only requires a simply eye test to verify what every scout who’s seen him for the last seven years has said: he doesn’t have a position on the field.
I agree that it’s weird to see him get the deal, and that a guy like Branyan would be a much better fit (if he’d take the deal)…
I guess we will see if a leadership role in San Diego is worth that much money…….