Stan Musial Award – American League MVP

Posted on October 20, 2011 by Jonathan C. Mitchell

In one of the tougher awards to decide from, I had to choose between Jose Bautista and Jacoby Ellsbury at the top of my American League Stan Musial (MVP) award. Both players deserve the top spot but my job is to decide who decides it just a little more.

Bautista led the AL in HR (43), SLG (.608), OPS (1.055), wRC+ (181), wOBA (.441), and rWAR (8.5). He was 2nd in OBP (.447) and fWAR (8.3) and was an excellent base runner with a +2.7 Bsr. He also stole 9 bases and walked more than he struck out.

Ellsbury led the AL in fWAR (9.4) and finished 3rd in rWAR (7.5). He hit .321/.376/.552 with 32 homeruns and 39 stolen bases while playing spectacular defense in center with a +15.6 UZR. He was also a good base runner with a +1.2 Bsr.

So, who did I decide. Check out my full ballot below.

1. Jose Bautista (TOR) – I chose Bautista because his offensive numbers were so much better than the rest of the league that it outweighed the defense and positional adjustment for me. It was very close, though.

2. Jacoby Ellsbury (BOS) – I couldn’t overlook the difference in offense. Bautista had a 181 wRC+ and Ellsbury had a 150 wRC+. That doesn’t mean Ellsbury was bad but that I decided on Bautista. It was more like 1a and 1b than 1 and 2.

3. Miguel Cabrera (DET) – The only man to have a higher OBP than Bautista but it was only .001 higher. He led the league in AVG and hit .344/.448/.586 with a 2nd best 177 wRC+. A monster offensive performance yet again for this young man who is on his way to a Hall-of-Fame career.

4. Justin Verlander (DET) – Yes, he was this good and deserves to be top 5 in MVP voting. Alone, 251 innings and nearly a strikeout per inning is insane. Add to that a 2.40 ERA and 2.99 FIP and you have an MVP candidate.

5. Dustin Pedroia (BOS) – He hit .307/.387/.474 with 21 homeruns and 26 stolen bases. He also led all keystone players with a +17.9 UZR at the position and his .377 wOBA was also the best at the position.

6. Curtis Granderson (NYY) – The man hit .262/.364/.552 with 41 homeruns and stole 25 bases while playing center and being one of the better base runners in the game. The only reason he missed the top 5 was the low average and the less than stellar defense. Very solid season, though.

7. Ian Kinsler (TEX) – Kinsler hit .255/.355/.477 and, like Granderson, had a low average that kept him out of the top 5. He was a rare 30/30 second baseman and played spectacular defense. Again, like Granderson, he was one of the best base runners in the game.

8. Adrian Gonzalez (BOS) – He hit .338/.410/.548 and was possibly the best defensive first baseman in the game. The base running was atrocious but he was the best hitter on a great offensive ball club. I wouldn’t argue with people who place him a little higher on this list.

9. Alex Gordon (KC) – The 5-tool man that no one noticed this year. He hit .303/.376/.502 with 23 homeruns and 17 stolen bases. Add to that 45 doubles, 4 triples, +9.6 UZR, and +4.5 Bsr. That all-around effort lands him in the top 10 on my ballot.

10. C.C. Sabathia (NYY) – Too good of a season to ignore and much better than people realize. Take another look at his numbers while pitching in the AL East and one of the best hitter’s parks in the game.

Just missed (in order): Ben Zobrist (TB), Robinson Cano (NYY), Alex Avila (DET), Evan Longoria (TB), Adrian Beltre (TEX)

-Jonathan C. Mitchell can be found writing about the Tampa Bay Rays at DRaysBay and you can follow him on twitter at @FigureFilbert and follow MLBdirt at @MLBdirt

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Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis Tagged: | Adrian Beltre, Adrian Gonzalez, Alex Avila, Alex Gordon, BBA, Ben Zobrist, C.C. Sabathia, Curtis Granderson, Dustin Pedroia, Evan Longoria, Ian Kinsler, Jacoby Ellsbury, Jose Bautista, Justin Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, MVP, Robinson Cano, Stan Musial, Stan Musial Award

14 Responses

Bryan, on October 20, 2011 at 2:09 pm said:

Great work as always, Jonathan. Our ballots would be almost identical if I included pitchers and didn’t have such a Napoli fetish. Here’s mine:
http://replacementlevel.wordpress.com/2011/10/15/final-ballot-stan-the-man/

Reply
- Jonathan C. Mitchell, on October 20, 2011 at 3:00 pm said:
  
  Love your ballot! Obvioulsy, becasue it is similar to mine.
  
  Napoli was in my top 20. Needed more PAs for me.
  
  Reply
mlblogsyossif, on October 20, 2011 at 2:50 pm said:

Good job with the top 3, they were very valid. But there was one part that was quite ridiculous. You’re insisting that C.C. Sabathia is the second-best pitcher in the AL. How can this be true when Jered Weaver’s ERA is a whole .59 lower than Sabathia’s! James Shields also had a better season than Sabathia, leading him in every stat except wins (run support was not even close to the same). Shields also has 8 more CGs than C.C. What’s your reasoning for Sabathia having a better season than Shields and Weaver. Also, how is Ian Kinsler better than Adrian Gonzalez. What main stats does he have him beat? The only thing I can think of is baserunning. The guy’s hitting .255!!

Reply
- Jonathan C. Mitchell, on October 20, 2011 at 3:03 pm said:
  
  Sabathia had one of the top 5 hitter’s parks and Shields had one of the top 5 pitcher’s parks and the best defense behind him. Sabathia was slightly better. My Cy ballot has them 2 and 3 and I say I wouldn’t be upset if Shields was ahead of Sabathia, I just find Sabathia’s season slightly better.
  
  Kinsler plays a tremendously tougher position, plays it better, hit more home runs, stole a ton more bases, and the base running were like polar opposites. Honestly, 7-10 can interchange and I wouldn’t argue much.
  
  Reply
  - mlblogsyossif, on October 20, 2011 at 3:16 pm said:
    
    You still didn’t explain the Jered Weaver part… he had a better season than both Shields and Sabathia. Gonzalez is a much, much better hitter though. I also think he means more to his team than Kinsler does. .255 and .338 are really not comparable.
  - Jonathan C. Mitchell, on October 20, 2011 at 3:29 pm said:
    
    Sorry about Weaver. Fewer innings, fewer Ks, lower K/9, way higher xFIP, relied heavily on deep ballparks in LAA, OAK, and SEA, and faced the Mariners and A’s most of the time and they were last and 3rd from last in offense. You have to take it all in.
    
    I think I explained my Kinsler rating pretty well. At the same time I have no problem with someone flipping the two. It was close.
mlblogsyossif, on October 20, 2011 at 2:50 pm said:

Here’s my reasoning behind the pitching subject: http://yossif.mlblogs.com/2011/10/12/bba-awards-the-walter-johnson-award/
The Rays Rant

Reply
- Jonathan C. Mitchell, on October 20, 2011 at 3:08 pm said:
  
  Here is my reasoning for allowing pitchers: http://mlbdirt.com/2011/08/31/why-cant-a-pitcher-win-the-mvp/
  
  Please let me know what you think. I used to think differently about pitchers and MVP awards.
  
  Reply
  - mlblogsyossif, on October 20, 2011 at 3:17 pm said:
    
    I never had a problem with pitchers winning the MVP……
  - Jonathan C. Mitchell, on October 20, 2011 at 3:24 pm said:
    
    Gotcha. I thought you meant pitchers and MVP awards.
mlblogsyossif, on October 20, 2011 at 3:39 pm said:

Good point with the opponents. It’s just the ERA is too far apart for me.

Reply
- Jonathan C. Mitchell, on October 20, 2011 at 3:40 pm said:
  
  I can see that. But ERA is based on opponents faced and defense behind you. I like ERA but it comes with caveats that need to be included. It’s why I like stats like ERA+ and FIP as much or better than ERA.
  
  Reply
Mike Gianella, on October 21, 2011 at 11:08 am said:

I’m in the process of doing my own write-up and am having the same dilemma with Ellsbury/Bautista. Still haven’t decided which way to go.

Reply
- Jonathan C. Mitchell, on October 21, 2011 at 11:56 am said:
  
  It was very tough for me, especially when dWAR and UZR had different numbers for Bautista. Let me know when yours is up so I can check it out.
  
  Reply

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