Junius Worth
David Kerr
Charlie Nehl
gawlowskib
Andrew Martin
Jonathan C. Mitchell
johnczech
Daniel Marino
Michael Schwartze
mlbdirtstaff
Spencer Schneier
William J. Tasker
The Houston Astros are starting the season with Brandon Lyon as their closer, and why not. I mean, he does have 74 career saves and is an established closer, blah blah blah…
In case you do not know my thoughts on the closer role here it is: I hate it! I hate inning roles given to pitchers. Simply put, the best reliever should face the best hitters in close games whether it be the 8th or 9th inning. Now, I am not saying Brandon Lyon is a bad reliever, he is not. But what I am saying is that he is not the best reliever on the team, Wilton Lopez is.
Lopez is relatively unknown outside of Houston. ESPN Fantasy leaguers own him in less than 1% of leagues (0.2% to be exact) compared to Lyon at 97.6%. Yes, Lyon does get the “save” stat right now but that could change when Houston is out of the race and trades him to a contender in need of a bullpen arm or if he falters. I will point out that while Lyon has posted an ERA under 4.00 four times in his career he has never had an xFIP under 4.06 and his K/9 has been above 6.0 only four times, once ever was it over 7.0. His FB/GB rate remains consistently around 1:1, hovering slightly above it and his K/BB struggles to stay above 2:1. Not a bad reliever but no where near what your ideal high-leverage reliever is.
Lopez, on the other hand, rose like a Phoenix from the ashes (ok, maybe that’s a bit dramatic) to post some great numbers in his first full season in the Majors.
| Stat | Total |
| ERA | 2.96 |
| FIP | 2.59 |
| xFIP | 2.85 |
| ERA+ | 132 |
| IP | 67.0 |
| K/BB | 10.0 |
| HR/9 | 0.54 |
| GB% | 55.7 |
| ERA- | 75 |
| FIP- | 71 |
| xFIP- | 66 |
| fWAR | 1.3 |
| rWAR | 1.2 |
Lopez allowed only 4 unintentional walks in 67 innings pitched all season. Wrap your brain around that for a second. Lopez carries with him a fastball that averages 92.3 mph, an above-average change-up and a slider. He does not overpower hitters but he locates the ball extremely well with good command and control and has enough velocity and a good repertoire that once he gets in front of a hitter (he threw 60% first pitch strikes) they have little chance of working a count and getting their pitch to hit.
It will be very difficult to replicate his 2010 season but Lopez is a guy that belongs on all Fantasy Leaguer’s watch lists if not on your roster right now, especially if you need help in K/BB, Holds, and ERA.
Filed under: Digging Deep - Analysis, Fantasy Tagged: | Astros, Brandon Lyon, Wilton Lopez
Great article. Good choice on your pick. Will look into taking him.
Thanks a lot. I found it crazy that he’s owned in less than 1% of leagues but I understand it because saves are the stat everyone wants. If you have an empty spot he’ll help in most categories. I own him in a couple leagues.
I love the holds category because it gives like him a lot more value.
True that! K/BB is where he flourishes. Can’t believe he had a 10:1 K/BB ration and that included an intentional walk. Only 4 unintentional walks all year is amazing.
Would be the closer on alot of other teams out there. Stuck where he is now.